TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts December 2019 New Car Sales to Finish the Year Up
December 23 2019 - 9:00AM
TrueCar, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics subsidiary, ALG,
projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,567,254 units in
December 2019, up 0.2% from a year ago when adjusted for the same
number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized
rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.2
million units. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail
deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,322,551 units, a
decrease of 2% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of
selling days.
“We expect 2019 sales to come in right where we forecast at the
beginning of the year,” said Oliver Strauss, Chief Economist at
ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “For December, we’re seeing an uptick
in consumer sentiment and some softening in recession uncertainty
which all bode well for the industry. Higher incentives this month
are helping lift total auto sales versus a year ago.”
Additional Insights: (Forecast by
ALG)Month
- Among mainstream brands, Ford stood out for total sales, up
5.1% year-over-year. This is likely due to its slate of new
(Explorer and Escape) and young (Expedition) SUV lineup, including
some pent-up demand for the Explorer due to production hiccups at
launch.
- Toyota is showing a gain in retail market share this month off
the success of its RAV4, including the new hybrid trim.
- For the luxury brands, BMW and Mercedes Benz are battling it
out in December to capture the annual luxury sales crown. BMW is
hitting the gas on incentives and fleet sales, in an attempt to
overtake Daimler.
- BMW is expected to be up 6.2% year-over-year in December with
incentives up 13.2%, meanwhile Daimler is expected to be up 4.7%,
while holding incentives flat compared with last year.
- The other legacy battles have mostly been settled; with the
Toyota RAV4 expected to beat the Honda CR-V by over 50,000 units,
and the Toyota Camry expected to top the Honda Accord by over
60,000 units by year’s end.
- Tesla is forecast to be down 8% in December (and down for the
second month in a row) compared with last year, as it continues to
face difficult compares from last year’s surge in buyers hoping to
secure the last of their federal EV credits.
- Nissan continues to struggle, and is forecast to be down 21% in
total unit sales compared to a year ago.
- Meanwhile GM is still rebounding from its 40-day strike, that
was resolved at the end of October. It’s expected to be down 1.6%
on total units, with the biggest drop in incentive spend by any
manufacturer at 4.7%, and a reduction in fleet compared with last
year as it replenishes supply.
- Average automaker incentive spend is expected to reach $3,944
in December, up 3.6% or $138 dollars year-over-year.
- The most notable year-over-year increases in incentive spend
are expected from Toyota, BMW and Volkswagen, up 13.9%, 13.2% and
11% respectively.
- Used vehicle sales for December 2019 are expected to reach
3,058,423, up 9% from a year ago and down 1% from November
2019.
Quarter:
- Total unit sales for the quarter should reach
4,324,609, down 2.3% compared with the same period
last year adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Used vehicle sales for the fourth quarter are expected to reach
9,514,373 up 6.1% year-over-year and down 8.5% from Q3 2019.
- TrueCar and ALG assessed brand retention performance for the
fourth quarter through the replacement vehicle indicated via
TrueCar Trade, TrueCar’s consumer trade experience.
- The top five brands with the highest indicated brand retention
this quarter are Ram, Subaru, Toyota, Honda and Chevrolet.
- Ram showed the biggest increase in indicated brand retention
this quarter according to TrueCar Trade data, moving from 43% in Q3
to 48% in Q4.
“December is one of the busiest times of year for auto retail
and the best time of year for consumers to buy a car and save off
MSRP,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst at ALG, a subsidiary
of TrueCar.
“Over one third of December vehicle transactions typically
happen in the last week of the month, and year,” added Lyman.
“Automakers and dealers will sweeten deals to move remaining
inventory off their lots and make room for the 2020 model year
vehicles.”
December 2019 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers
by volume: (Adjusted for same selling days as December
2018) For additional data visit the ALG
Newsroom.
Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
Dec 2019 |
Dec 2018 |
YoY % Change (Days selling rate) |
BMW |
38,036 |
37,249 |
6.2% |
Daimler |
36,492 |
36,254 |
4.7% |
FCA |
187,266 |
196,520 |
-0.9% |
Ford |
221,909 |
219,632 |
5.1% |
GM |
280,519 |
296,632 |
-1.6% |
Honda |
155,357 |
155,115 |
4.2% |
Hyundai |
68,392 |
65,721 |
8.2% |
Kia |
49,277 |
47,428 |
8.1% |
Nissan |
112,843 |
148,720 |
-21.1% |
Subaru |
64,743 |
64,541 |
4.3% |
Tesla |
17,789 |
20,100 |
-8.0% |
Toyota |
216,842 |
220,910 |
2.1% |
Volkswagen Group |
58,591 |
59,443 |
2.5% |
Industry |
1,567,254 |
1,627,481 |
0.2% |
Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
Dec 2019 |
Dec 2018 |
YoY % Change(Days selling
rate) |
BMW |
35,401 |
36,041 |
2.2% |
Daimler |
34,392 |
34,248 |
4.4% |
FCA |
149,263 |
158,298 |
-1.9% |
Ford |
162,031 |
166,855 |
1.0% |
GM |
220,032 |
249,709 |
-8.4% |
Honda |
152,226 |
154,429 |
2.5% |
Hyundai |
57,215 |
57,185 |
4.1% |
Kia |
41,121 |
42,423 |
0.8% |
Nissan |
77,805 |
107,899 |
-25.0% |
Subaru |
62,457 |
62,464 |
4.0% |
Tesla |
17,789 |
20,100 |
-8.0% |
Toyota |
200,794 |
202,767 |
3.0% |
Volkswagen Group |
55,393 |
56,588 |
1.8% |
Industry |
1,322,551 |
1,403,824 |
-2.0% |
Total Unit Sales Fourth
Quarter
Manufacturer |
Q4 2019 |
Q4 2018 |
YoY % Change(Days selling
rate) |
BMW |
100,952 |
95,726 |
4.1% |
Daimler |
105,885 |
101,047 |
3.4% |
FCA |
538,710 |
555,221 |
-4.2% |
Ford |
604,198 |
606,569 |
-1.7% |
GM |
735,497 |
784,262 |
-7.4% |
Honda |
420,752 |
397,831 |
4.4% |
Hyundai |
190,189 |
176,245 |
6.5% |
Kia |
149,788 |
137,631 |
7.4% |
Nissan |
309,353 |
369,195 |
-17.3% |
Subaru |
177,167 |
176,717 |
-1.0% |
Tesla |
48,239 |
51,700 |
-7.9% |
Toyota |
613,486 |
602,435 |
0.5% |
Volkswagen Group |
168,233 |
159,606 |
4.1% |
Industry |
4,324,609 |
4,368,404 |
-2.3% |
Retail Market Share Fourth Quarter
Manufacturer |
Q4 2019 |
|
Q4 2018 |
|
YoY % Change(Days selling
rate) |
|
BMW |
2.5% |
|
2.5% |
|
1.9% |
|
Daimler |
2.8% |
|
2.6% |
|
2.1% |
|
FCA |
11.2% |
|
11.5% |
|
11.8% |
|
Ford |
12.3% |
|
12.1% |
|
11.8% |
|
GM |
14.8% |
|
16.1% |
|
16.2% |
|
Honda |
11.3% |
|
10.8% |
|
11.7% |
|
Hyundai |
4.4% |
|
4.0% |
|
4.2% |
|
Kia |
3.6% |
|
3.2% |
|
3.7% |
|
Nissan |
6.6% |
|
7.8% |
|
7.3% |
|
Subaru |
4.7% |
|
4.7% |
|
4.7% |
|
Tesla |
1.3% |
|
1.4% |
|
1.1% |
|
Toyota |
15.9% |
|
15.1% |
|
15.7% |
|
Volkswagen Group |
4.4% |
|
4.2% |
|
4.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s
analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a
projection of TrueCar Inc.’s operations.)
About TrueCarTrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a
digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing
transparency about what other people paid for their cars and
enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are
committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar
operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more
than 16,500 Certified Dealers, and also powers car-buying programs
for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations,
including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Nearly
half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during
their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica,
California, with an office in Austin, Texas.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow
us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US
toll-free) | Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com
About ALGFounded in 1964 and headquartered in
Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on
automotive residual value projections in both the United States and
Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess
residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services
clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts,
consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG
is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive
marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about
what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing
residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over
55 years and in Canada since 1981.
TrueCar & ALG PR Contact: Shadee
Malekafzalishadee@truecar.com424.258.8694
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