DALLAS, Oct. 29, 2020 /PRNewswire/
-- Comerica Bank's Texas Economic Activity Index
increased in August to 116.1. August's index reading was 21 points,
or 22 percent, above the index cyclical low of 95.5. The index
averaged 139.1 points for all of 2019, 3.8 points above the average
for 2018. July's index reading was 111.7.
Our Texas Economic Activity Index improved for the second
straight month in August, following the lockdown swoon from March
through June. We expect to see further improvement in the Texas
Index for September. In August, eight out of nine index components
were positive, including nonfarm employment, unemployment insurance
claims (inverted), housing starts, house prices, industrial
electricity demand, total state trade, hotel occupancy and sales
tax revenues. Only the drilling rig count sub-index remained in the
red. We expect the rig count sub-index to turn mildly positive late
this year reflecting recent stabilization and nascent gains in
September. However, recent softer oil prices may challenge that
assumption. Texas has four sets of
economic risk factors that will be active through the remainder of
this year. The first is regional coronavirus spread. Like most
other states, Texas is seeing an
increase in cases this fall. We do not expect to see a return to
strict statewide social mitigation practices for the remainder of
this year, but there is certainly potential for that outcome. The
second big risk factor is the strength of the U.S. and global
economies through the fourth quarter. Third is the specific risk to
the energy industry. While Texas
continues to diversify its economy, the energy industry remains a
key accelerator for the state. The fourth set of risk factors
include other idiosyncratic risks to key Texas industries, including airlines.
The Texas Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables, as
follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for
unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index,
industrial electricity sales, Texas rotary rig count, total trade, hotel
occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Total
index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving
averages.
Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA) is a financial services
company headquartered in Dallas,
Texas, and strategically aligned by three business segments:
The Commercial Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management.
Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping people and
businesses be successful. In addition to Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in
Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in
several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico. Comerica reported total assets of
$83.6 billion at Sept. 30, 2020.
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank