DALLAS, July 1, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's
Texas Economic Activity Index decreased in April to 127.5. April's
index reading was 32 points, or 34 percent, above the index
cyclical low of 95.5. The index averaged 139.2 points for all of
2019, 3.8 points above the average for 2018. March's index reading
was revised to 140.0.
Our state economic activity indexes for April are showing the
full impact of the coronavirus pandemic on state economies. In
addition to the negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the
Texas economy has felt the
related, but separate, impact of a dramatic shift in the global
energy market. Eight out of nine components declined in April for
Texas. They were nonfarm
employment, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing
starts, industrial electricity demand, drilling rig count, total
state trade, hotel occupancy and state sales tax revenues. Only the
house price sub-index improved in April. We expect to see an
overall improvement in the Texas Index in the months ahead due to a
mix of factors. First, Texas has
rolled back some restrictions on businesses. Also, demand for
Texas goods and services is
improving outside of Texas as U.S.
and international conditions steady. The combination of increased
demand and output agreements are working to rebalance the global
oil market. Recently, higher oil prices have stabilized the
drilling rig count. However, Texas, along with some other states, has seen
an increase in COVID-19 cases through early summer. Some retail
establishments have been shut down again. There is a risk that
Texas may need to revisit stricter
social mitigation policies if hospital capacity is strained. That
could result in another meaningful drag on the Texas economy.
The Texas Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables, as
follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for
unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index,
industrial electricity sales, Texas rotary rig count, total trade, hotel
occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Total
index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving
averages.
Comerica Bank is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:
CMA), the largest U.S. commercial bank headquartered in
Texas, strategically aligned by
three business segments: The Commercial Bank, The Retail Bank, and
Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping
people and businesses be successful. In addition to a local banking
center network throughout Dallas-Fort
Worth, Houston,
Austin, San Antonio and Kerrville, Texas, Comerica Bank locations can
be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in
several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank