RDSA Shell Plc

By Sarah McFarlane and Ben Dummett 

Europe's push toward cleaner energy and declining oil demand are threatening its refineries, some of which have been struggling to find buyers for years.

The continent has led the global drive away from fossil fuels by integrating renewable energy, including solar and wind power, into its power grid and supporting the development of electric vehicles. The region has implemented more climate policies than any other part of the world, according to the European Union.

That effort has clouded the outlook for many refineries, some of which are small and old. A number of them have gone up for sale in the past three years, and few have resulted in deals because of a lack of buyers or disagreements on price.

Royal Dutch Shell PLC said in June that it plans to sell around half of its refineries globally. Since 2016, it has unsuccessfully tried to sell refineries in Denmark and Germany. Shell is continuing to look at its portfolio of refineries and has "no plans on closing anything at this moment in time," Chief Financial Officer Jessica Uhl said in October.

Exxon Mobil Corp. has been unable to sell the Slagen refinery it offered for sale earlier this year. The facility is located in Norway, the country with the highest proportion of electric vehicles in the world.

Total SA also was unsuccessful in selling its U.K. Lindsey refinery, while Greece's largest oil refiner, Hellenic Petroleum SA, didn't receive any final bids for a majority stake in its refineries.

Shell, Exxon, Total and Hellenic Petroleum declined to comment.

"I'm not a believer of the fact you can sell European refineries; it's going to be more closures," said Raul Alcamo, London-based head of refining at consulting firm Energy Aspects.

Initial public offerings also have been hit. The planned IPO of Varo Energy BV, the European oil refiner jointly controlled by Vitol Group and Carlyle Group LP, was canceled last year because of unfavorable market conditions.

Globally, refining is struggling where governments are more aggressive with new climate policies but growing in areas with less regulation and rising fuel demand. Some state-owned oil companies in Asia and the Middle East, including Saudi Arabian Oil Co., also known as Aramco, continue to invest in new refineries in places such as India.

Since 2012 around 1.8 million barrels a day of refining capacity has been shuttered in Europe, shrinking the region's capacity to 15.3 million barrels a day. Globally the trend is the opposite with Asia, the Middle East and Africa adding capacity, according to Energy Aspects. Asia is expected to be the driver of global oil-demand growth.

Oil demand in Europe peaked in 2006, according to BP PLC's annual statistical review.

Of the refineries that remain in Europe, many are struggling. "We calculate that 17% of refining capacity in Europe, particularly in France and Italy, is at risk of negative margins," Mr. Alcamo said.

Refining margins in Europe in December are around a three-year low, with 82% of refining capacity expected to be utilized in 2019, according to consulting firm Wood Mackenzie.

Margins and utilization rates are expected to get a temporary boost in 2020 with the global adoption of rules on cleaner shipping fuel on Jan. 1, but analysts expect the trend to revert lower in Europe over the coming decade.

"Utilization rates below 80% are not sustainable, indicating that the region is oversupplied and that refineries in this region will be pressured to shut down," said Heitham Tolba, research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, adding that European refineries are, on average, more than 50 years old.

Closing down an aging refinery isn't always the obvious answer for oil companies eager to cut their losses. Environmental liabilities can make the facilities expensive to shutter. Ground contamination sometimes makes it more attractive to convert sites for alternative uses such as fuel storage.

But this may work only as a medium-term fix, given many countries in the region -- including France, the U.K. and Ireland -- already plan to phase out fossil fuel cars by 2040, something the European Commission also is considering.

In some instances, energy companies are refurbishing refineries. Exxon is investing $1 billion to expand its Fawley refinery on the U.K.'s south coast to boost its production of less polluting ultralow sulfur diesel, while Repsol SA's $3 billion investment to modernize its Cartagena refinery in southeastern Spain was the largest industrial investment in the country's history.

Some refineries in Germany are looking to branch out into so-called green hydrogen, produced by electrolysis, using electricity from renewables to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. The hydrogen isn't yet economical, and the refineries are seeking government funding.

Raffinerie Heide GmbH in northern Germany plans to gradually transition out of producing traditional fuels and into making synthetic fuel from hydrogen and carbon dioxide, which could supply customers such as the aviation industry.

"If you don't invest now -- the time, effort, money -- into exploring new decarbonizing ways, and being part of the change, and take this as an opportunity rather than as a threat, it might be too late," said the refinery's chief executive, Jürgen Wollschläger.

Write to Sarah McFarlane at sarah.mcfarlane@wsj.com and Ben Dummett at ben.dummett@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

December 23, 2019 09:14 ET (14:14 GMT)

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