PSPS Wind Update: Wind Gusts in Nearly Two Dozen Counties Reached Above 40 MPH; in 15 Counties, Wind Gusts Topped 50 MPH
October 16 2019 - 8:04PM
Business Wire
During Pacific Gas and Electric Company’s (PG&E) Public
Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) last week, wind gusts exceeded 40 mph
in 22 counties and topped 50 mph in 15 counties.
The company considers many factors when deciding if a Public
Safety Power Shutoff is needed to protect customers and
communities, but an important element is how strong the winds will
be.
“Our in-house meteorological team and experts from the National
Weather Service and other federal agencies were in agreement that
this event had the potential for strong winds and a heightened
wildfire risk,” said Scott Strenfel, PG&E’s principal
meteorologist. “And that’s exactly what happened. The winds arrived
and our system sustained considerable damage, yet no fires started
as power lines were de-energized.”
During the event, which impacted 738,000 customers, gusts of 77
mph were recorded in Sonoma County and 75 mph in Contra Costa
County. So far, the company has confirmed 100-plus incidents of
damage or hazards within the PSPS footprint. It is possible that
these damages and hazards represented potential sources of wildfire
ignition.
Prior to the event, PG&E's meteorologists and fire-weather
experts participated in interagency calls with experts from
multiple National Weather Service (NWS) offices and the Northern
Operations Predictive Services. The experts were aligned that this
was a very high fire risk event and had all the ingredients
necessary for significant potential fires.
The National Weather Service issued multiple Red Flag Warnings
that lasted from Wednesday afternoon until Friday morning that
included locations where 2.1 million of PG&E's customers live.
The Red Flag Warning encompassed a larger area than the PSPS
footprint. Maximum wind gusts exceeded 40 mph in 22 counties
impacted by the PSPS event:
- Sonoma County: 77 mph
- Contra Costa County: 75 mph
- Tehama County: 61 mph
- Sierra County: 59 mph
- Butte County: 56 mph
- Napa County: 54 mph
- Santa Cruz County: 54 mph
- Placer County: 53 mph
- Yolo County: 53 mph
- Solano County: 53 mph
- Humboldt County: 52 mph
- Kern County: 51 mph
- Lake County: 51 mph
- Mendocino County: 51 mph
- Santa Barbara County: 50 mph
- Shasta County: 49 mph
- Calaveras County: 49 mph
- Alameda County: 48 mph
- Colusa County: 47 mph
- El Dorado County: 46 mph
- San Luis Obispo County: 46 mph
- Marin County: 40 mph
In his “Weather and Climate Blog,” Cliff Mass, an atmospheric
sciences professor at the University of Washington who specializes
in weather prediction and modeling, analyzed the weather conditions
during the PSPS and talked about the value of “increasingly
skillful weather forecasts.”
Quoted on sfgate.com, Craig Clements, director of the Fire
Weather Research Laboratory at San Jose State said: "Nailing that
[a wind event] with a weather forecast model is very difficult. I
still think it's prudent to turn off the power. It's what we need
to do."
In conjunction with PG&E’s meteorological team, the
company’s Wildfire Safety Operations Center team monitors
conditions across our system and evaluates whether to proactively
turn off electric power lines, in the interest of public safety, if
heightened fire danger conditions are forecasted.
Each situation is unique, and no single factor drives a Public
Safety Power Shutoff. PG&E carefully reviews a combination of
many criteria when determining if power should be turned off for
safety. These factors generally include, but are not limited
to:
- A Red Flag Warning declared by the National Weather
Service
- Low humidity levels, generally 20 percent and below
- Forecasted sustained winds generally above 25 mph and wind
gusts in excess of approximately 45 mph, depending on location and
site-specific conditions such as temperature, terrain and local
climate
- Condition of dry fuel on the ground and live vegetation
(moisture content)
- On-the-ground, real-time observations from PG&E’s Wildfire
Safety Operations Center and observations from PG&E field
crews.
It is very possible that customers were affected by a power
shutoff even though they were not experiencing severe weather
conditions in their specific location. That’s because the electric
system relies on power lines working together to provide
electricity across regions, counties and cities.
PG&E’s weather website, www.pge.com/weather, offers insight
into the seven-day-ahead forecast for a potential PSPS. The site
includes live feeds from nearly 600 weather stations and
approximately 100 high-definition cameras.
About PG&E
Pacific Gas and Electric Company, a subsidiary of PG&E
Corporation (NYSE:PCG), is one of the largest combined natural gas
and electric energy companies in the United States. Based in San
Francisco, with more than 20,000 employees, the company delivers
some of the nation’s cleanest energy to 16 million people in
Northern and Central California. For more information, visit
www.pge.com and www.pge.com/news.
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