N.Y. Fed Consumer Survey Finds More Negativity About the Outlook in January
February 11 2019 - 12:27PM
Dow Jones News
By Michael S. Derby
Some gloom crept into the outlook for America's households last
month, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank
of New York on Monday.
In its January Survey of Consumer Expectations, the bank found
that respondents now expect rising unemployment down the road. For
the fourth straight month, the survey reported expectations of
higher joblessness a year from now rose, with 40.6% of respondents
holding that view, from the prior month's 38.8%. The jobless rate
was 4% in January, but the New York Fed report doesn't ask
respondents predict the rate.
The New York Fed said that was the highest reading since March
2014, and that the increase was found broadly across age, education
and income levels.
The report also found respondents saying the odds of losing a
job have risen, as have the probabilities of voluntarily leaving a
job and being able to find a new one.
The report also said that expectations of higher income declined
slightly to 2.8% of respondents, while expectations of spending
growth "decreased notably," from 3.5% of respondents, from 3% in
December. The survey also said expectations of rising credit
availability ebbed in January to its lowest level since October
2016.
The New York Fed's survey arrives at a time of significant
uncertainty for the U.S. economic outlook. At the Fed's late
January policy meeting central bankers pressed the pause button on
their rate rise campaign while they wait to see how a slowing
global economy and tighter financial conditions affect the U.S.
Many observers believe the Fed will no longer raise rates this
year, although there's little expectation right now that the U.S.
is facing an outright downturn.
The New York Fed report found survey respondents' expectations
of inflation remained stable at 3% both a year and three years from
now. The bank noted these readings have been "very stable" over the
last nine months.
Write to Michael S. Derby at michael.derby@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 11, 2019 12:12 ET (17:12 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.