U.S. Economic Growth Lost Further Momentum in September -- Chicago Fed
October 25 2021 - 8:59AM
Dow Jones News
By Xavier Fontdegloria
The U.S. economy grew in September at a slower pace than in the
previous few months, according to data from the Federal Reserve
Bank of Chicago released Monday.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to minus 0.13 in
September from 0.05 in August, below the 0.35 consensus forecast
from economists polled by FactSet.
The CFNAI index is composed of 85 economic indicators drawn from
four broad categories of data: production and income; employment,
unemployment and hours; personal consumption and housing; and
sales, orders and inventories. A positive index reading corresponds
to growth above historical trend and a negative index reading
corresponds to growth below trend.
The reading signals that the U.S. economy grew at a
below-average rate in September. The last time the indicator
suggested a subdued growth rate was in April.
The fall in the CFNAI was driven by production-related
indicators, which contributed minus 0.37 points to the index as
industrial production fell 1.3% in September after decreasing 0.1%
in August.
The remaining three broad categories contributed positively to
the index, but didn't offset the decline driven by production.
Employment-related indicators contributed by 0.16 points in
September, up from 0.09 points in August. The unemployment rate
decreased 0.4 percentage points in September after edging down 0.2
percentage points in August, but nonfarm payrolls increased by
194,000 after rising by 366,000 the previous month.
The contribution of the sales, orders and inventories category
to the CFNAI moved up to 0.07 in September from 0.01 in August.
Finally, the contribution of the personal consumption and
housing category to the CFNAI was unchanged at 0.02 in
September.
The CFNAI diffusion index rose to 0.22 in September from 0.20 in
August, while the index's three-month moving average, the
CFNAI-MA3, decreased to 0.25 from 0.38. Both the diffusion index
and the CFNAI-MA3 suggest that the U.S. economy is expanding at a
moderate pace.
Write to Xavier Fontdegloria at xavier.fontdegloria@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 25, 2021 08:44 ET (12:44 GMT)
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