Fizzy Beer Stocks Are Due for a Bar Fight in China -- Heard on the Street
By Jacky Wong
Beer connoisseurs are living it up again in China--and getting
more discerning about their ale. Barflies can celebrate as their
drinking options expand, but an imminent brawl for control of the
premium segment could weigh on already-fizzy beer shares.
Budweiser Brewing Co. APAC, the Asian unit spun off by
Anheuser-Busch InBev in 2019, said its revenue in China last
quarter grew 93% year over year while its earnings there before
interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization more than tripled.
In other words, beer drinkers are tossing back pints (or cans)
again with gusto: Both metrics are higher than the same period in
2019. The company sells beer brands like Budweiser and Stella
Artois in Asia. Revenue and profits at rival Tsingtao Brewery,
which reported earnings last month, have also moved above
Since China has largely put the pandemic under control, beer
sales in pubs and restaurants have also returned to normal. Such
on-premise consumption accounts for 63% of premium beer sales,
according to an April report from Bernstein.
But investors have already priced in the recovery, especially
for local brewers. Tsingtao's Hong Kong-listed shares have gained
38% since the beginning of last year while shares of state-owned
China Resources Beer have gained 48%. Budweiser APAC shares, on the
other hand, are down 3%, partly because the company's other
markets, such as South Korea, offer slower growth.
Investors may also be worried that Budweiser APAC's leading
market share in the premium segment will be chipped away by its
Chinese rivals. It is easy to see why every brewer wants to crack
into the higher-end segment: China's beer market by value expanded
21% from 2016 to 2019 even though sales by volume only grew 0.6%,
according to Euromonitor International. Chinese consumers may not
have drunk more beers, but they are definitely becoming
CR Beer in particular could be a threat. It owns Snow, the
country's most popular brand by volume, and bought Heineken's
Chinese business in 2019. Heineken in return became a shareholder
in CR Beer.
The scramble for the higher-end segment isn't cost-free though.
For example, Tsingtao's selling and distribution expenses last
quarter were equal to 22% of its revenue, compared with 17% for the
same quarter in 2019. Shares of brewers are already trading at high
valuations. CR Beer and Budweiser both trade above 40 times forward
earnings while Tsingtao trades at about 30 times, according to
For now, beer companies are reveling in the pleasant
post-pandemic glow. The next step--a fierce, expensive battle for
market share--might be less fun.
Write to Jacky Wong at JACKY.WONG@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 06, 2021 07:43 ET (11:43 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.