By Chris Matthews and Mark DeCambre, MarketWatch
The U.S. added just 75,000 new jobs in May
U.S. stocks rose modestly Friday, following a
weaker-than-expected jobs report, which supports the case for the
Federal Reserve to ease interest rates in the near future, amid
fears that the U.S. economy is decelerating as trade tensions
between the U.S. and counterparts Mexico and China persist.
How did the benchmarks perform?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 107 points, or 0.4% , at
25,832, while those for the S&P 500 index gained 13 points, or
0.5%, at 2,857, and the Nasdaq Composite index advanced 37 points
to 7,653, a gain of 0.5%.
On Thursday
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-poised-to-extend-rally-to-a-third-day-with-us-tariff-talks-ecb-in-focus-2019-06-06),
the Dow rose 181.10 points, or 0.7%, at 25,720.66, representing its
longest string of gains since March 18, according to Dow Jones
Market Data. The S&P meanwhile, rose 17.34 points, or 0.6% to
2,843.49, while the Nasdaq added 40.08 points, or 0.5%, to reach
7,615.55.
For the week, the Dow is set to gain 3.7%, which would be the
best weekly gain since the period ended Nov. 30, according to
FactSet data as of Thursday's close. The S&P 500 looks likely
to return 3.3 % for the week, which would also represent its best
such gain since November, while the Nasdaq was set for a weekly
climb of 2.2%, its best weekly gain since March.
What's driving the market?
The U.S. economy added 75,000 new jobs in May
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-creates-just-75000-jobs-in-may-and-wage-growth-slows-in-warning-sign-for-economy-2019-06-07),
while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%, the Labor
Department said Friday, below the 185,000 estimated by economists,
per a MarketWatch poll. Estimated job gains for both March and
April were revised down by a total 75,000, and the three-month
moving average of monthly job gains has fallen from 245,000 in
January to 151,000 today.
The jobs report follows the smallest increase in private-sector
employment in nine years, according to payment processor ADP on
Wednesday, which showed that the private sector added 27,000
nonfarm jobs in May, representing the weakest growth since March
2010.
While stock index-futures initially sold off on the news,
markets could be entering a period in which bad economic news is
good for stock markets, analysts said, as it would increase the
chances that the Federal Reserve would move to lower interest rates
in the coming months.
Wall Street is increasingly anticipating a reduction of
borrowing costs by the Federal Reserve to combat sluggish inflation
and the aftershocks of intensifying trade wars between the U.S. and
counterparts, including Mexico and China. The market is placing a
25% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's coming policy-setting meeting
June 18-19, according to CME Group data.
On the trade front, several news
(https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-pressures-mexico-as-second-day-of-border-talks-begin-11559826586?mod=hp_lead_pos3)reports
(https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/06/us/politics/trump-mexico.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage)
suggested the U.S. and Mexico made progress Thursday on a deal that
would have Mexico agree to steps to slow the flow of migrants from
Central America to the United States, in return for the U.S.
declining to impose tariffs on Mexican imports.
Mexico has also emphasized the need for more U.S. economic aid
to potentially subsidize Mexican interdiction efforts, and to
support economic development in migrants' home countries. It
remains to be seen, however, whether a deal can be reached in time
to avoid the imposition of a 5% tariff on all Mexican imports, set
to go into effect Monday. Talks are set to resume Friday.
There is less reason for optimism that the U.S.-China trade
dispute will be resolved any time soon, with no new scheduled talks
between the two powers. Early Friday, the Governor of the People's
Bank of China told Bloomberg
(https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-07/china-has-lots-of-policy-room-if-trade-war-worsens-yi-gang-says)
that the central bank has "tremendous" room to use monetary policy
to stimulate the Chinese economy, should the Sino-American trade
spat worsen.
What other data are ahead?
A report on wholesale inventories is due at 10 a.m. Eastern
Time, while a report on consumer credit growth will be released at
3 p.m.
What are the analysts saying?
"This is the type of [jobs report] the doves will really take
to, as it supports the argument for cutting rates beyond politics
or trade issues, which were never part of the Fed's mandate to
begin with," Mike Loewengart, vice president of investment strategy
at E-Trade wrote in an email.
"That said, our historically low unemployment rate hasn't moved,
and even though the number came in low we're still creating jobs,
which supports the case that the economy is still expanding," he
added. "So the Fed will have to walk a really thin line."
"Stock indices were headed for weekly gains, as expectations
that the US Federal Reserve and other central banks around the
world would soon cut interest rates to counter the damaging impact
of rising trade tensions lifted sentiment," wrote Raffi Boyadjian,
senior investment analyst at XM. "Traders were also hopeful that US
and Mexican officials will be able to resolve the issue of illegal
migration across the two countries' border."
Which stocks are in focus?
Barnes & Noble Inc. (BKS) shares could be in focus Friday,
after a report in the Wall Street Journal
(https://www.wsj.com/articles/elliott-management-is-lead-bidder-in-auction-of-barnes-noble-11559843348)
indicated the bookseller is nearing a deal to be bought by hedge
fund Elliot Management Corp. The stock rose 10.8% Friday
Shares of Zoom Video Communications Inc. were up 17.6% Friday
morning, after the firm announced better-than-expected earnings
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/zoom-shares-surge-11-on-strong-earnings-guidance-2019-06-06)
Thursday evening.
How are other markets trading?
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note retreated nearly .06% to 2.067%.
Asian stocks closed higher Friday
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-stocks-rise-on-hopes-of-us-mexico-deal-to-avert-tariffs-2019-06-06),
with Japan's Nikkei 225 rising 0.5% and South Korea's Kopsi
advancing 0.2%. Markets in China were closed for a holiday. In
Europe, stocks were on the rise
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/europe-stocks-rise-as-investors-digest-ecb-announcement-2019-06-07),
with the Stoxx Europe 600 adding 0.8%.
Crude oil was on the rise for the second-straight session, while
the price of gold edged higher
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-on-track-to-snap-7-session-win-streak-as-global-stocks-rise-2019-06-07).
The U.S. dollar , meanwhile, fell 0.4% relative to its peers.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 07, 2019 09:39 ET (13:39 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.