U.S. Government Bonds Decline as Investors Watch for Trade Signals
May 21 2019 - 5:32PM
Dow Jones News
By Daniel Kruger
U.S. government-bond prices fell Tuesday after the White House
said it would grant temporary exemptions to an export blacklist
against Huawei Technologies, raising hopes of a thaw in trade
tensions.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose for a
second consecutive trading session, settling at 2.428% from 2.416%
Monday.
Yields, which rise as bond prices fall, climbed with investors
continuing to see potential for a trade deal between the U.S. and
China before the U.S. increases its tariffs on imports from China
to 25% from 10%. The levies are set to take effect on June 1.
An escalation of conflicts in global trade is slowing growth,
according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development, which lowered its forecast for global economic growth
this year to 3.2% from 3.3% in March. At the same time it raised
its growth projection for the U.S. to 2.8% from 2.6%.
Investors see a range of impacts from the escalation in trade
tensions between the two largest economies. Prices on consumer
goods imported from China may increase, which some investors think
could lead to a higher rate of inflation. Others see higher prices
leading to a slowdown in purchases as consumers recoil from higher
prices, leading to a slowdown in economic activity.
Federal Reserve officials have discussed allowing the rate of
inflation to rise for some time above the central bank's target of
2% to compensate for periods where it has remained below the level
officials think is optimal for promoting growth. Recently inflation
has remained below the Fed's target.
One way for the Fed to speed inflation would be to lower
interest rates, which would encourage more borrowing and spending.
Fed-funds futures, which investors use to bet on the path of
central bank policy, show investors see roughly two-in-three odds
of a rate cut by the end of this year.
Yet, there are "few signs the Fed is going to be willing to
provide a cut," said Sean Simko, head of portfolio strategies at
SEI Investments. "The market at this point is a little ahead of
itself."
Fed officials have forecast that they will raise interest rates
one time in 2020. That suggests if policy makers want to let
inflation run above target, they will do so by holding back from
potential rate increases rather than by lowering rates, Mr. Simko
said.
Write to Daniel Kruger at Daniel.Kruger@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 21, 2019 17:17 ET (21:17 GMT)
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