By Ira Iosebashvili and Dawn Lim
Some prominent U.S. investors are buying Treasurys and planning
to sell stocks, saying escalating trade tensions with China could
threaten the 10-year bull market for equities.
Many have scrambled to reverse bets on an imminent deal between
the U.S. and China and are now settled in for a dispute they expect
to roil markets for months to come. Others are taking out insurance
on further market declines by buying investments that rise in value
when stocks fall, such as put options.
The flare-up brings back to the forefront concerns that had
receded as markets coasted to new highs in recent months. They
include concerns over fragile global growth, pricey U.S. stock
valuations and China's capacity to continue stimulating its economy
as its debt grows.
Investors pulled more than $22 billion from U.S.-stock-focused
exchange- traded funds in the past two weeks as growing trade
worries pressured markets, according to data from flows tracker
EPFR Global.
Hopes for an easier path to a trade deal helped lift stocks in a
series of advances last week after major indexes experienced their
worst drop in four months on Monday. But a Bank of America Merrill
Lynch poll of fund managers released last week found that just over
a third have taken out protection against a sharp drop in equity
markets over the next three months. That is the highest level in
the survey's history.
"Clearly people have been positioned for smooth sailing, so that
makes the markets' response to this tempest in a teapot kind of
exaggerated," said Mark Spitznagel, chief investment officer of
hedge fund Universa Investments, in an emailed message. However,
"one of these days a spark like this will ignite another
inferno."
Because China is the world's second-largest economy, its
fortunes affect prices for a range of global markets, from stocks
to soybeans.
Worries over a slowdown in China have already hit prices for
industrial metals including copper and nickel, as well as the
currencies of nations that count on Chinese demand for their
exports. One casualty has been the South Korean won, which is down
to its lowest level in more than two years against the dollar.
South Korea sends around a quarter of its exports to China. At the
same time, the trade tensions have hammered China's yuan to near
its weakest level since late last year in offshore markets.
Jack McIntyre , who helps manage more than $55 billion in
fixed-income investments for Brandywine Global, recently added to
an already-overweight position in U.S. Treasurys when U.S. tensions
with China worsened. He predicts that stocks could fall more than
10%, a drop worse than a market correction, if trade tensions
rise.
At the same time, the potential of a steep stock slump is likely
to keep President Trump from taking extreme measures against China,
he said.
"Trump wants to be re-elected, so he can't run the risk of an
equity meltdown," Mr. McIntyre said. "I think there has to be a
deal. It's just a question of how bad does it get between now and
then."
Mona Mahajan, an investment strategist and portfolio manager at
Allianz Global Investors, has cut back her funds' exposure to
Chinese and U.S. equities by selling stocks and buying put
options.
"The risk of new tariffs has risen, a fundamental shift from the
more amicable resolution regulators and policy makers had been
expecting," she said.
Ms. Mahajan made an early call to start selling U.S. stocks over
the past month before markets turned volatile. She continued
cutting her exposure to U.S. equities more recently and reduced her
exposure to Chinese equities, too. The decisions locked in some
gains.
Others believe the recent turbulence may have uncovered bargains
in markets that have become expensive over the past few months.
Jennifer Hartviksen, a portfolio manager at Invesco, reduced her
position in high-yield bonds when prices rose earlier this year.
She believes the trade dispute has created a buying opportunity for
the $5 billion she manages across several portfolios.
"I wouldn't call it good news," she said. "I would call it an
opportunity to find more attractive valuations....We're taking
advantage of this volatility to hunt for deals."
For the longer term, some investors believe that the U.S. and
China will remain at loggerheads on trade, technology and other
issues, even if the current impasse is resolved.
Hugo Rogers, who oversees $5 billion as chief investment
strategist at Deltec International Group, plans on lightening up on
stock positions if a deal is announced.
"Many markets participants are talking about a China trade deal
as a trigger to sell, and we are with them," he said. "A deal would
make markets react positively and give a good exit point. But
further conflicts will arise."
Carson Block, founder of short seller Muddy Waters LLC, said the
U.S. administration has alternated between pushing for a more
substantive realignment of the relationship with China and focusing
on the S&P 500.
"However, the political calculus of Trump claiming the 'tough on
China' mantle for 2020 makes me think it's probable there is a more
substantive realignment than just China agreeing to buy more
soybeans," Mr. Block said in emailed comments.
--Rachael Levy contributed to this article.
Write to Ira Iosebashvili at ira.iosebashvili@wsj.com and Dawn
Lim at dawn.lim@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 19, 2019 06:14 ET (10:14 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.