President Donald Trump has said he will soon decide whom to nominate to run the Federal Reserve when current Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen's term expires in February. He has said he is considering offering her a second term, and he has discussed the job with at least three other candidates: Fed governor and former Treasury Department official Jerome Powell; Stanford University economist and former Treasury official John Taylor; and former Fed governor Kevin Warsh.
Yellen, the Continuity Candidate
Picking Ms. Yellen would signal confidence in her handling of central bank policy and the economy, including her slow and cautious unwinding of the Fed's crisis-era stimulus policies. It would also follow the tradition in recent decades of a new president reappointing the incumbent Fed leader installed by a president of the other party.
Ms. Yellen, who became chairwoman in early 2014 when short-term interest rates were near zero, led the Fed to raise rates four times since late 2015 and in September to launch the process of shrinking the central bank's $4.2 trillion in holdings of bonds acquired to lower long-term rates. The Fed signaled in September it expects to keep lifting borrowing costs gradually through 2020. Meantime, the U.S. economy is growing at a steady if moderate pace, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in September, the lowest level since 2001, and U.S. financial markets have taken the Fed's policy moves in stride.
Powell, Continuity on Rates But More Open to Deregulation
A Powell-led Fed would likely continue Ms. Yellen's gradual approach to raising rates and reducing the bond portfolio very gradually, but have a lighter touch on financial regulation. During his five years at the Fed, Mr. Powell has been a reliable ally of Ms. Yellen. He has never dissented on a monetary policy vote and, in speeches, hasn't deviated far from the board's consensus.
But he has advocated loosening some of the banking rules included in the 2010 Dodd Frank law, a position that meshes with Mr. Trump's deregulatory agenda. Mr. Powell has suggested softening the Volcker Rule barring banks from using their own money to make risky bets, and easing some bank stress tests. He has also endorsed reviewing some of the supervisory duties imposed on the boards of directors of banks to prevent them from being burdened with "an ever-increasing checklist."
"More regulation is not the best answer to every problem," Mr. Powell said in a speech in early October.
Taylor, a Vocal Fed Critic
Mr. Taylor, a longtime adviser to Republican presidents and presidential candidates, has been an outspoken opponent of the Fed's easy-money policies adopted to stimulate the economy during and after the financial crisis. He is perhaps best known for his "Taylor Rule," first spelled out in 1993 that provides a mathematical formula to set interest rates. Central bankers have long used the rule as a benchmark against which to measure their own policy, but they have been hesitant to bind themselves to it. The rule would have called for considerably higher interest rates than the Fed put in place in the years since the crisis. Mr. Taylor has spent the past few years calling for higher interest rates.
He has criticized the Fed's bond-buying programs, arguing that driving down longer-term bond yields would make lenders less likely to extend credit and hold down economic growth.
On fiscal policy, Mr. Taylor has advocated shrinking the federal deficit as a way to boost economic growth even in the aftermath of recessions. He has argued that reduced government spending would reduce the need for higher taxes in the future, prompting more private investment today.
Warsh, a Fed Critic With Crisis-Fighting Experience
Mr. Warsh, a former Morgan Stanley executive who served on the Fed board during the financial crisis, has positioned himself as a conservative proponent of tighter monetary policy. He has expressed deep skepticism of central-bank rate policy and communications, criticized its asset-purchase programs and accused officials of "trying to fine-tune the economy."
In a December 2016 speech, Mr. Warsh criticized the Fed for straying from its mission of maintaining stable and low inflation. He chided the Fed for relying too heavily on short-term economic data when making policy decisions. "The Fed needs to stay out of politics, stick to its mission and reform its strategy, operation, communications and governance, and in so doing the weight and responsibility for the economy will have to be picked up by someone else," he said.
Mr. Warsh served as an economic adviser to President George W. Bush before joining the Fed in 2006. After the crisis began, Mr. Warsh was part of then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's war room of officials who would brainstorm over ideas before Mr. Bernanke floated them with all Fed policy makers.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 12, 2017 20:43 ET (00:43 GMT)
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