HOUSTON, Aug. 10, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- BBVA Compass
economists, citing the weak first quarter and lack of progress on
fiscal policy, have revised downward their baseline forecasts for
U.S. GDP growth to 2.1 percent for 2017 and 2.2 percent in
2018.
The economists say the lack of progress on policies that could
boost growth, such as tax reform and infrastructure spending, is
partly to blame. In the team's Third Quarter Economic Outlook, BBVA
Compass Chief Economist Nathaniel
Karp also explores some of the forces behind the structural,
longer-lasting changes taking place in the U.S. economy that are
contributing to low productivity and weak growth and challenging
economists and policymakers alike.
"Although there is still time for the GOP to deliver
comprehensive tax and healthcare reform, the lack of progress to
date and inability to pass even partisan reforms suggests that the
upside to growth is lower than it was heading into the year," BBVA
Compass Chief Economist Nathaniel
Karp writes in the new report. "As a result, market,
consumer and business expectations, which have been historically
high, will have to adjust to an environment characterized by
moderate growth, tighter financial conditions and unresponsive
policymakers."
Among the other conclusions in the report:
- Trump's economic agenda: The economists examine two
pillars of Trump's economic agenda – infrastructure investments and
protectionist trade policies. They find that the implementation of
the president's agenda would have mixed effects on the
economy.
- Global growth: BBVA Research is forecasting a robust 3.3
percent global growth rate for 2017 and slightly higher than that,
3.4 percent, for 2018. Growth rates in both China and Europe are ticking up.
- Oil prices: Karp and team expect Brent crude oil prices
to average $51.70 a barrel in 2017.
That estimate is $6 less than their
forecast at the outset of the year, and reflects growing
uncertainty over OPEC's strategy to stabilize the market.
To read the full report, go to bbva.info/2hnQetC.
Led by Nathaniel Karp, the bank's
research team analyzes the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve
monetary policy. For its analyses, the economists create models and
forecasts for growth, inflation, monetary policy and industries.
The Economic Research team also follows a variety of issues that
affect the Sunbelt states where BBVA Compass operates. Follow their
work on Twitter @BBVAResearchUSA and @BBVACompassNews.
To learn more about BBVA Compass, visit: www.bbvacompass.com
For more news visit: www.bbva.com and
newsroom.bbvacompass.com
About BBVA Group
BBVA is a customer-centric global financial services group founded
in 1857. The Group is the largest financial institution in
Spain and Mexico and it has leading franchises in
South America and the Sunbelt
Region of the United States; and
it is also the leading shareholder in Garanti, Turkey's biggest bank for market
capitalization. Its diversified business is focused on high-growth
markets and it relies on technology as a key sustainable
competitive advantage. Corporate responsibility is at the core of
its business model. BBVA fosters financial education and inclusion,
and supports scientific research and culture. It operates with the
highest integrity, a long-term vision and applies the best
practices. More information about BBVA Group can be found at
bbva.com
About BBVA Compass
BBVA Compass is a Sunbelt-based financial institution that operates
657 branches, including 342 in Texas, 89 in Alabama, 63 in Arizona, 61 in California, 45 in Florida, 38 in Colorado and 19 in New Mexico. BBVA Compass ranks among the top
25 largest U.S. commercial banks based on deposit market share and
ranks among the largest banks in Alabama (2nd), Texas (4th) and Arizona (5th). BBVA Compass has been
recognized as one of the leading small business lenders by the
Small Business Administration (SBA) and ranked 5th nationally in
the total number of SBA loans originated in fiscal year 2016.
Additional information about BBVA Compass can be found at
www.bbvacompass.com. For more BBVA Compass news, follow
@BBVACompassNews on Twitter or visit
newsroom.bbvacompass.com.
Any statement or opinion of a BBVA Compass economist is that
economist's own statement or opinion and does not represent a
statement or prediction by BBVA Compass, its parent companies or
management.
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SOURCE BBVA Compass