By Nick Timiraos
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pushed back against
President Trump's repeated demands for lower interest rates --
citing the central bank's decadeslong independence -- while
explaining why it might nevertheless cut interest rates soon.
"The independence of the Fed from direct political control is an
important institutional feature that has served the country well,
served the economy well," Mr. Powell said in remarks at the Council
on Foreign Relations in New York. "When you see central banks
lacking those protections, you see bad things happening -- and that
includes, by the way, our experience here in the United
States."
Still, Mr. Powell said the central bank might cut rates due to a
hit to the economic outlook from rising uncertainty by the Trump
administration's trade policies. While the amount of tariffs
currently in place against China and other countries "is not large
enough to represent, itself, a major threat to the economy," Mr.
Powell said officials are concerned about and carefully watching
for signs of "a loss of confidence or financial market
reaction."
Mr. Trump has sharply criticized the Fed's decisions, first to
raise interest rates and more recently, to hold them steady. He has
called on the Fed to cut its benchmark rate, currently between
2.25% and 2.5%, by 1 percentage point.
"Think of what it could have been if the Fed had gotten it
right," Mr. Trump said on Twitter on Monday. "Now they stick, like
a stubborn child, when we need rate cuts.... Blew it!"
In an interview on NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday, Mr. Trump
said he wasn't considering removing Mr. Powell as the central
bank's leader but said he believed he could do so. Such a step
could severely undermine the Fed's independence to set interest
rates with an eye toward the long-run health of the economy.
Mr. Powell didn't directly address those remarks on Tuesday, but
he has previously indicated he doesn't believe he can be removed
from his four-year term over a policy dispute. He has said he has
no plans to leave office before his term expires in 2022.
Mr. Powell said the central bank didn't want to be drawn into a
broader political fight. "We're human. We'll make mistakes -- I
hope not frequently," he said. "But we won't make mistakes of
integrity or character." He said earlier episodes where the central
bank acceded to political pressure to spur short-term growth didn't
turn out well, including runaway inflation the U.S. experienced in
the 1970s.
Fed officials agreed to hold rates steady last week, but nearly
half of the reserve bank presidents and governors who participate
in the rate-setting committee's deliberations indicated they judged
the economy could require lower rates before year's end.
The central bank has already shifted its policy stance once this
year. In January, Mr. Powell shelved plans for the Fed to continue
raising rates after market volatility soared in the days following
the most recent interest rate increase last December.
On Tuesday, Mr. Powell largely repeated points he made in his
press conference after last week's Fed meeting. Officials felt
confident in the U.S. growth outlook and their policy position as
recently as early May, before Mr. Trump announced plans to increase
tariffs on Chinese imports to 25% from 10% following a setback in
trade negotiations.
"Quite a lot has changed," Mr. Powell said. "The global risk
picture has changed, really just in the last six to eight weeks.
And it's around trade developments and concerns about global
growth."
In addition, Fed officials have changed their view about recent
inflation dynamics, he said. The central bank raised interest rates
four times last year, in part due to an expectation that price
pressures would build across the economy.
Inflation ran at the central bank's 2% inflation target as
recently as December, but since then has declined. Core prices,
which exclude volatile food and energy categories, dropped to 1.6%
in April, according to the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
In May, Mr. Powell indicated temporary declines in a handful of
price categories, together with an outlook that favored strong
growth this year, would keep inflation moving back to its 2%
target.
Now, the inflation shortfall "looks like it may be more
persistent than we had hoped," Mr. Powell said. Fed officials
regard a sustained run of inflation below the central bank's target
as "another argument, frankly, for providing" lower interest rates,
he said.
Stock markets have rallied since the Fed signaled a stronger
bias toward rate cuts last week, and investors in interest-rate
future markets fully anticipate at least one
quarter-percentage-point rate cut at the next meeting on July
30-31. Mr. Powell didn't push back against those expectations on
Tuesday.
For the second time in a week, Mr. Powell favorably cited
economic research that says when interest rates are historically
low, the Fed should act pre-emptively to avoid a steeper downturn.
"This is fairly widely accepted," Mr. Powell said. "If you see
weakness, it's better to come in earlier rather than later just as
a general principle."
Markets are divided over whether the Fed will cut rates by one
quarter percentage point or by a half percentage point. If the Fed
does cut interest rates, Mr. Powell said Tuesday the size of any
reduction would depend on the economic outlook.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who dissented in favor of
lower interest rates last week, separately on Tuesday said he
didn't think the Fed needed to cut its benchmark by more than one
quarter percentage point at its next meeting.
Write to Nick Timiraos at nick.timiraos@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 25, 2019 17:50 ET (21:50 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.