BOND REPORT: Treasurys Rebound As Deutsche Bank Worries Rattle Stocks
September 29 2016 - 2:27PM
Dow Jones News
By Ellie Ismailidou, MarketWatch
Treasury prices rebounded from early losses Thursday, pushing
down yields, as investors sought safety when German lender Deutsche
Bank sparked a selloff in stocks.
Treasury yields, which move in the opposite direction of prices,
turned solidly lower after Bloomberg reported that a handful of
Deutsche Bank's (DBK.XE) (DBK.XE) derivatives-clearing clients had
removed excess cash and positions
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/deutsche-bank-shares-tumble-after-report-says-some-clients-reduce-collateral-on-trades-2016-09-29).
Deutsche Bank's U.S.-listed shares were down by around 7% after the
report, while U.S. stocks sold off
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-stocks-could-struggle-as-euphoria-over-opec-deal-fades-2016-09-29),
led lower by financials.
See:Deutsche Bank crisis threatens to roil global markets
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-crisis-in-european-banks-threatens-to-roil-global-markets-2016-09-28)
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-crisis-in-european-banks-threatens-to-roil-global-markets-2016-09-28)Also
read:Deutsche Bank shareholders in for more pain
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-in-store-for-deutsche-bank-shareholders-2016-09-28)
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note erased an
earlier gain to fall 0.9 basis point to 1.558%, according to
Tradeweb. One basis point is equal to one-hundredth of a percentage
point.
The yield on the two-year Treasury note , which is most
sensitive to rate changes, fell 0.4 basis point to 0.75%. And the
yield on the 30-year Treasury bond , which is the most sensitive to
long-term growth and inflation expectations, declined 1 basis point
to 2.278%.
On the economic data front, business investment wasn't nearly as
weak as previously reported, leading the government to ratchet up
its estimate of second-quarter GDP to 1.4% from 1.1%
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/second-quarter-gdp-raised-to-14-from-11-2016-09-29).
Meanwhile, applications for first-time unemployment benefits
rose 3,000 to 254,000 in late September
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-rise-slightly-to-254000-2016-09-29),
but the low level of initial claims pointed to a steadily improving
labor market.
Yields had already retreated somewhat after a gauge of pending
home sales fell in August to the lowest level in seven months
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pending-home-sales-slide-to-lowest-in-seven-months-2016-09-29),
signaling more choppiness in a housing market starved for
inventory.
In Europe, the yield on Germany's 10-year bond known as the
bund, rose 3.6 basis points to negative 0.116%, according to
Tradeweb.
Even as analysts cheered the increase of second-quarter GDP
growth, many still thought that the fresh data were unlikely to
influence the Federal Reserve's next moves with interest rates.
"It's nice to see an upward revision, but the [growth rate]
still has a one-handle," said R.J. Gallo, a fixed-income portfolio
manager at Federated. According to Gallo, the fact that GDP growth
remains below the 2% mark shows that the U.S. economy is expanding
at a moderate pace that will enable the Fed to hike rates at a slow
and gradual pace.
In this context, Treasury yields, which have been trading in a
"very narrow range" should continue to tick higher in an
incremental manner, without any significant jump, Gallo added.
Investors were also bracing for August PCE inflation data--the
Fed's preferred inflation gauge--scheduled for release on Friday.
It could offer fresh clues on whether inflation is rising toward
the central bank's 2% target.
"If oil prices are headed higher from here, so will headline
inflation in coming quarters," said Peter Boockvar, chief market
analyst at The Lindsey Group, in an email.
According to Boockvar, higher inflation is "kryptonite to global
bond markets" as it not only pushes long-term yields higher, but
could also spark central banks to turn more hawkish, if inflation
gets "closer to the 2% inflation they all crave."
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 29, 2016 14:12 ET (18:12 GMT)
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