ZenithOptimedia Marginally Cuts 2011 Ad Growth Forecast
October 03 2011 - 12:29PM
Dow Jones News
Advertising forecaster ZenithOptimedia said Monday the current
stock market turmoil should lead only to slight cuts in advertising
spending during the remaining months of the year.
ZenithOptimedia, owned by French ad company Publicis Groupe SA
(PUB.FR), marginally cut its forecast for 2011 advertising
expenditure growth to 3.6% from the 4.1% predicted in July due to a
modest slowdown in spending growth expected at the end of the
year.
"The slowdown in economic recovery in the developed markets,
coupled with rising fears of a double-dip recession, have caused
some advertisers to trim back budget increases planned for the end
of 2011, but there has been no sign of the cancelled campaigns and
sharp budget cuts that signaled the beginning of the last
advertising downturn in 2008," Zenith said.
For 2012, the company now predicts 5.9% growth in advertising
spending, compared to 5.3% predicted previously.
Even though the world's stock markets fell sharply, shortly
after Zenith last revised down its ad spending forecasts in July,
raising concern that the ad market may be headed for another
downturn, the recent turmoil doesn't necessarily mean the market
will indeed decline, the forecaster said.
According to Zenith, stock market shocks during the Asian
financial crisis in 1997 and the burst of the dotcom bubble in 2000
were indeed followed by ad market declines.
However, other shocks such as the Black Monday crash of 1987 or
the sharp drop in U.S. markets after the 2001 September 11
terrorist attacks, had no effect on advertising.
"There is certainly a risk of further economic downturn ahead,
but the current consensus is that the developed economies face a
sustained period of below-potential growth instead of decline,
while developing markets will continue to grow rapidly, if at a
cooler pace than in 2010," Zenith said.
-By Ruth Bender, Dow Jones Newswires; +33 1 4017 1754;
ruth.bender@dowjones.com
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