DALLAS, April 29, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's
California Economic Activity Index increased in February to a level
of 126.7. February's reading was 29 points, or 30 percent, above
the index cyclical low of 97.8. The index averaged 124.4 points in
2019, 0.5 points above the average for all of 2018. January's
reading was revised to 126.4.
Due to reporting lags in state-level economic data, the February
edition of our Comerica state economic activity indexes does not
fully reflect the strong contraction in the U.S. economy this
spring due to the global coronavirus pandemic. Our California Index
increased in February, up for six consecutive months. Six of the
eight sub-indexes were positive in February. They include nonfarm
payrolls, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing starts,
house prices, industrial electricity demand and the Dow Jones
Technology Index. State total trade and hotel occupancy were
negative for the month. The March data will show a strong
deterioration in California
economic activity. Layoffs accelerated in the second half of March
as social mitigation efforts were implemented across the state.
California's unemployment rate
went from 3.9 percent in February to 5.3 percent in March. The
April data will likely show a further deterioration in California economic activity. Stay-at-home
orders at the state level have been in place since March 19 in California, with no definitive end date.
However, L.A. county announced that their stay-at-home orders will
remain in effect until at least May
15 and six Bay Area counties extended their orders through
the end of May. Even after stay-at-home orders are eased, social
distancing standards and changes to consumer behavior are expected
to persist for the remainder of this year, weighing on some parts
of the California economy.
The California Economic Activity Index consists of eight
variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing
claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price
index, industrial electricity sales, total trade, technology stock
index and hotel occupancy. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index
levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
Comerica Bank, with locations in the key California markets of San Francisco and the East Bay, San Jose, Los
Angeles, Orange County,
San Diego, Fresno, Sacramento, Santa
Cruz/Monterey, and the
Inland Empire, is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:
CMA). Comerica is a financial services company headquartered in
Dallas, Texas, and strategically
aligned into three major business segments: the Business Bank, the
Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on
relationships and helping businesses and people be successful.
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank