By Joe Flint
The whodunit crime dramas that CBS Corp. counts on to drive its
broadcast network's prime-time lineup are dealing with an
unexpected plot twist this season--declining ratings.
The audience for "Elementary," a modern-day take on Sherlock
Holmes, has shrunk by 15% compared with last season, according to
Nielsen. In the key demographic groups of adults ages 18 to 49 and
25 to 54, "Elementary" is down 28% and 18%, respectively. Also
sliding are "The Mentalist," "Person of Interest," "CSI," and
"NCIS," the network's No. 1 drama.
"They have lost some ground," said Edward Atorino, a media
analyst with Benchmark Co. "Maybe some of the shows got a little
tired."
CBS has been the most-watched network for six-straight years and
its formula for success is primarily tried-and-true crime dramas
that have broad appeal. Often, if a show works, such as "NCIS" and
"CSI," CBS makes spinoffs of them, as it did this season when it
launched "NCIS: New Orleans." The strategy has paid off for CBS in
the ratings and created a financial windfall for the company in
syndication sales.
But now many of CBS's most reliable performers are past their
peak, and it is showing in the Nielsen numbers. It isn't limited to
the dramas: A few of the network's comedies, including "Two Broke
Girls" and "Mike and Molly," have also seen better days.
CBS executives say they are pleased with the network's
performance so far this season. "If you are handicapping the four
networks going into the second half of the season, there is just no
contest," said CBS Corp. Chief Research Officer David Poltrack.
The conundrum for CBS is that the shows in question still
deliver relatively strong numbers by industry standards, but are no
longer good bets for the long-term. The scenario CBS wants to avoid
is the one NBC faced a decade ago when it had to pay more and more
to keep aging hits such as "Friends" and "ER" on the air because it
was unable to develop successors.
"CBS has been in that glass half-empty, half-full scenario,"
said Sam Armando, a senior vice president at the media-buying firm
Starcom. "You can't cancel these shows because they are still
strong, but you know going in they are not going to lift your
network anymore."
Despite the challenges, CBS remains in first place this TV
season, with an average prime-time audience of 11.2 million
viewers, up 1% compared with last season and still far in front of
rivals, according to Nielsen.
In the 18-to-49 and 25-to-54 demographics, the network is down
just 9% and 6%, respectively, not including Thursday night NFL
football telecasts that would boost the numbers.
CBS's issues look like luxury problems in comparison to some
competitors. Take its Sunday night football games out, and Comcast
Corp.'s NBC is down 3% in total viewers and 14% in adults 18 to 49,
according to Nielsen. 21st Century Fox's Fox network is off 16% in
viewers and 15% in adults 18 to 49. Thanks to new successes "How to
Get Away with Murder" and "Blackish," Walt Disney Co.'s ABC is up
in total viewers and flat in the key demographic segments.
Like all the major networks, CBS is contending with industrywide
challenges such as audience fragmentation and the onset of cable
"cord-cutting."
Bright spots for CBS include new dramas "Scorpion," about
tech-savvy crime stoppers, and the "NCIS" spinoff set in New
Orleans. Two veteran shows--"Criminal Minds" and "The Good
Wife"--have improved their ratings this season.
CBS Corp.'s Mr. Poltrack played down the decline in ratings for
many of the network's shows. "CSI," he noted, has aired 367
episodes and still gets more than 10 million viewers in a
competitive Sunday time slot. As for "Person of Interest" and
"Elementary," Mr. Poltrack attributed their drops to tougher
competition than in previous years.
Media buyers aren't ringing alarm bells yet. "Within a highly
fragmented marketplace, CBS remains beachfront property," said
Andrew Donchin, chief information officer of Dentsu Aegis US.
CBS has long portrayed its stable schedule as a selling point to
advertisers, but significant changes likely will be in store for
next season. CBS has already said this will be the last season of
"Two and a Half Men" and "The Mentalist."
"What this signals is CBS will do a bit more refreshing than
they typically would with next year's schedule," said Irwin
Gotlieb, chairman of media buyer Group M, a unit of WPP PLC.
Write to Joe Flint at joe.flint@wsj.com
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