Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO) Options

I haven't paid attention to him since he was forced out of the fund he created, SAC Capital Advisors, and was relegated to his "family" fund. His name in the filing just took me back to his underhanded schemes. In my opinion, he is not much different than DART. He has the power, knowledge, and experience to do whatever he wants. I don't think he is an "activist" now days. Probably he is just making a good investment. imho

ebo783

In your opinion is he a take over guy ? or someone that tries to push for a sale. TIA

Michael

That would be the infamous Steve A. Cohen..........

Steven A. Cohen is an American investor and hedge fund manager. He is the founder and CEO of Point72 Asset Management, a family office located in Stamford, Connecticut. As of April 2022, he has an estimated net worth of $17.4 billion.

Cohen is also the founder of the now-defunct SAC Capital Advisors, one of the most successful hedge funds ever. In 2010, the company became the subject of an insider trading investigation launched by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

While Cohen was never charged, the firm pled guilty to trafficking in nonpublic information and was forced to return investor capital and pay $1.8 billion in fines. SAC was officially closed in 2016 when Cohen began serving a two-year ban on managing other investors’ money. The ban expired in January 2018.
2
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. "Investment Advisers Act of 1940, Administrative Proceeding File No. 3-15382, IN the Matter of Steven A. Cohen, Respondent."


KEY TAKEAWAYS
Steven A. Cohen is an American billionaire hedge fund manager and investor known for employing high-risk, high-reward trading strategies.
Cohen began his investment career working as a trader for Gruntal & Co., where his trading generated substantial returns for the company and himself.
Cohen's flagship hedge fund, SAC Capital, was shut down following allegations of insider trading, and the fund was forced to pay nearly $2 billion in fines.
Following the demise of SAC, Steve Cohen was prevented from professionally managing investor money until 2018; at that point, he opened Point72 Asset Management.
SAC Capital's portfolio manager, Matthew Martoma, was convicted of insider trading and sentenced to nine years in prison.

Point72 filed a 13G with a 5.1% ownership. Previously held 509,831 shares. Now 3,226,006 shares.
https://ir.avidbio.com/node/20771/html

I'm wondering if we get a PR before the market opens Monday with some good news on the sales front or some other positive development?
Then then the CC after market close can focus this instead of the failure of our Financial and Legal Departments.
I am hoping at least someone accepts responsibility at minimum.
Would show some creditability from the C-suite.

Yup....all about timing also! Hopefully the upcoming CC will offer some positive developments about filling up our capacity, and yes perhaps the market will be a little more welcoming of positive news, so we get some benefit in the share price.

As frustrated as this whole debacle was, Nick is a take care of it guy, or rather that has been his reputation. Hopefully he can pull this thing together again and start reeling in those orders!!!

Good sign holding up in tough market. Hopefully.

Putting this behind us should be positive but not the market tanks. Can't get a break.

Well at least AVID modified the indenture for the 2029 notes so if they forget to remove the restrictive legend, it is not reason for default!

FFTT
JBAIN

Will Hart be MIA?…r

CC Monday after the bell…r

Yes, very good points...I guess no one was responsible and no big deal??????

But going beyond that, just confirming guidance of $137 mil to $147 mil is not going to get it done! The backlog of $206 mil is great, but a backlog in itself does not add to the revenues. For this stock to go anywhere in the near term(2 YEARS), they will have to start converting this backlog to revenues....to go from $140 mil to $400 mil will take a lot of solid incremental revenue increases every quarter.

Even if they hypothetically increased their revenues by an additional $10 mil per quarter(which they have not been able to do over the last year since they somewhat regressed) that would just take us to $180 mil next year(2025).....$220 mil the year after(2026)......well you get the picture...even with these kinds of increases they have a long way to go to get to $400 mil....lets call this the promised land of $25 to $28 per share.....in the range of 7 years.....that is IF they are able to achieve this kind of revenue growth!

The Laughing Water Capital article and comments seem to indicate closer to a 2 year timetable to fill their capacity....not sure how they arrived at that with current guidance for 2024 of $137 to $147 mil??? That would mean that in 2025 they would pull in an additional $250 Mil in revenue???

I guess we will just have to wait and see if the next quarter finally begins to show some solid growth, as without that, we are not going anywhere quickly!

"Immaterial" Also Implies, The PPS Crash From $8's...

$20's & Also Possibly The $30's!...

Were All Over Reactions And Market Manipulation!

I'm Holding To See Rebound From This Fiasco,
Which, As Far As I'm Concerned,
Could Have Been All Planned!...

In The Future, Many May Look Back And Realize
The Buyer Of $CDMO Really Simply Manipulated
Things That The SEC Simply Doesn't Oversee!

Glta Bulls, Watchers, & StockHOLDERS!

The adjustments were immaterial.
Still had a lousy quarter.
Now paying 7% on borrowed money
No one took responsibility for the mistake
No one received consequences for the mistake
Corporate Life in the C-Suite. How sweet it is!

Btw, Today Should Resolve NASDAQ Noncompliance Issues! Glta,eom.

Does everyone feel better now? Looks like restating was a little more involved.

FFTT
JBAIN

AvidBioservices Reports FinancialResults for Third Quarter Ended January31,2024...

link:
https://ir.avidbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/avid-bioservices-reports-financial-results-third-quarter-ended-1

Glta $CDMO Bulls, Watchers, & StockHOLDERS!

Looks like the three 10Q/A's all have the same conclusion of the adjustments, "immaterial" is the word used

https://ir.avidbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/avid-bioservices-reports-financial-results-third-quarter-ended-1

Recorded Third Quarter Revenue of $33.8 Million --
-- Signed $41 Million in Net New Business Resulting in Record High Backlog of $206 Million --
-- Celebrated Completion of Recent Expansion Program with Grand Opening of Cell and Gene Therapy Manufacturing Facility in January 2024 --
-- Completed Convertible Debt Offering Subsequent to Quarter End, Extending Debt Maturity to 2029 --

Latest trade. 04/24/2024 17:09:55 EDT W 6.83 167902 NDD

I recently reached out and got a response quickly.

I have met Stephanie several times an actually she is a very nice person. I talk to her for a long time at the last "in person" ASM when I was the only shareholder who attended. So she remembers me. Since then she has always responded to my emails. You just can't over do it or ask her questions that would evolve non public information.

Avid Bioservices Issues New 10Q Filing, Link Attached...

https://ir.avidbio.com/node/20751/html

Glta Bulls, Watchers, & StockHOLDERS!

10K filed.

https://ir.avidbio.com/node/20736/html

I have been sending emails with question to our investor relations person Ms Diaz, but have not received any responses at all....not even to say that she is not able to respond or does not have that information, or will check with management, or when we will have our next CC, etc.???

Not sure what the point is in having an Investor Relations person if they do not respond to emails asking pertinent questions.

Anyone else having an luck getting a response from Stephanie?

Re:Laughing Water...The mention of HALO in the article had me look at their 10k...on their comment regarding bulk rHuPH20..."future capital resource expeditures" ... "the costs of investments in our ENHANZE platform and auto-injector technology including development of new versions of rHuPH20 and auto-injector devices" ...and ... "the costs to develop and validate additional manufacturing processes of rHuPH20, auto-injectors, and testosterone replacement therapies"...with Catalent being excluded from these scenarios one would think that we would have the inside track for these considerations...no?...imao...r

Well, Laughing Water Capital did a good job of explaing the incompetence that happened at Avid that led to our demand payment call on our existing financing vehicle and then having to negotiate a new convertible financing agreement....yes the interest costs alone will cost at least $10 million and had this debacle not taken place, there was a reasonable chance that Avid could have paid off the existing agreement with the increased revenues from contracts along with some standard short term bank financing which would have meant that there would have been zero dilution on this deal having the convertible set at $21.21.....and even if there was a convert on this....I mean if the financiers would have converted at $21.21...well we all would have been happy regardless of the dilution....right??!!

Now back to reality...instead of 1.25% interest on a $144 financing and a convertible at $21.21 we have a new financing deal(due 2029) of $160 million at 7% and a convertible at $9.89, which hopefully will be converted(or else we are really in trouble) at some point, which will lead of course to greater dilution!

However not all is lost, as if you believe in what Laughing Water Capital had to say, things still look very good for the share price going forward...so their target or projected price was only moved down from $30 to $33 to $25 to $28.....so depending how long it takes to fill their capacity, still a pretty strong return on the current value of the shares......unless of course there are more screw-ups down the road!

So I guess I am OK to wait a couple of more years to find out if these guys know what they are talking about and will be happy to walk away with anything in the $25 to $28 range!!!

Still waiting for the restated earnings and of course that long delayed CC.....any questions???

I agee. I just hate trading such a tight range after these type of bonehead mistakes. It is amazing how many times this investment has been knee-capped 😬

trading patter sure don't look like no options play. EOM

We should see something by the end of the year or they fill the the backlog to capacity. Which ever comes first.
I personally think we don’t hear a thing until they have some good news on the sales front. So it softens the blow of the incompetence that happened. They can say look at what we did. Everything is good no personal changes needed

Avid may be the most "misunderstood" ever 🤔🤑

AltraVue Capital is a value-oriented investment manager. We specialize in making long-term investments in a select number of high-quality businesses that have been neglected or misunderstood by the market.

Michael,

I think the 60 days is to come up with a plan that NASDAQ can approve. Here is an excerpt that I found.

"In accordance with Nasdaq's listing rules, the Company will have 60 calendar days after the receipt of a notification letter from Nasdaq to submit a plan of compliance to Nasdaq addressing how the Company intends to regain compliance with Nasdaq's listing rules, and Nasdaq will have the discretion to grant the Company up to 180 calendar days from the due date of the Form 10-K to regain compliance."

Hopefully they won't take that long.

Best regards
dw

MusicBizExec

I am almost certain its 60 days to regain compliance IMO

Michael

Did, thanks.

I didn’t see a link on their website, but you can ask Stephanie to add your info at mailto:sdiaz@vidasp.com.

Informative, unbiased article. Very good read. Sadly, seems like more information than we will ever glean from the company under current legal guidance. Certainly doesn’t shine a positive light on the players involved in the note fiasco including internal legal. Just inexcusable and there should be “accountability”. Even so paints a positive picture for Avid’s future.

I just wish Nick would stand up, communicate, take the heat and move forward even though the note fiasco was not his direct responsibility. That’s leadership. I’m ready for them to move past this. AIMO

Personally I don't think Nick should go. Nick built this thing, he should see it through. I agree with the article "These are things that one just expects to be done, especially when there is a CFO, internal legal, external legal, and the bankers who structured and sold the bond all involved."
Hart and Ziebell should go and new outside law firm and banker should be hired.

Great article, it is unfathomable that heads don't roll over this. Start with Nic the 6 mil dollar man and destroyer of shareholder value

This is about the best explanation of what happened and going forward I have read so far.
Read all information on Avid. All the way down.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4684511-laughing-water-capital-q1-2024-letter

Interesting comments on HALO possibly moving more business to Avid

https://www.genengnews.com/insights/viral-vector-capacity-a-biopharm-problem-cdmos-can-solve/

It's been 30 days since NASDAQ issued the non-compliance notice. I think they have 180 days to cure this default but that is no excuse for the lack of communication with shareholders. In my opinion, canceling the earnings call was a huge mistake. And that was on top of an already huge mistake. Why have they not updated shareholders? The only thing that matters at this point is SALES.

SHAREHOLDERS HAVE A RIGHT TO KNOW WHERE THEIR INVESTMENT STANDS AT THIS POINT.

Could you share how you set this level of communication up? I have LinkedIn with a few of the folks so see some things there that's nowhere else. This lack of outbound communication (hopefully just to retail??) is so frustrating but if I can get more I'd be happy!

I didn’t get an email from Avid on the filing as I usually do. What’s up with that? I got emails on all the Form 4’s the other day.

Money talks. Good to see.

Altravue Capital filed a 13G yesterday raising their percent to 5.3% from 4.7%.
https://ir.avidbio.com/node/20731/html

Yes and an 80% decline or precipitous drop in a few short years, speaks volumes to so many areas of poor managerial decisions, for bookings, poor, financial fiduciary responsibility, overseeing the ledgers, nothing happening with the viral vector project and about absolutely almost 0 communication with Management since their mess up with alone interest payments, which cost us a shareholders dearly imho!!! From $35 down to $4+ now $6.71 There’s about an a bad investment as buying a boat that you know has leaks in it! Hoping for the best I’m praying for ALL!

No comment on the 200 contracts for $5 dec puts from Monday @ .85?…r

The fact we are down 65% from one year ago, kind of ruins any talk of an up trend.

well a 6-month chart shows a general uptrend since December, even with the "correction" for the convertible issue. What is your definition of an uptrend if CDMO is not in one?

FFTT
JBAIN

Positive trend? Please do explain? lol

with sharp drops it looks like MM moving the PPS. Most people don't do market sells this early in a positive trend.

FFTT
JBAIN