Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO) News

Yes I did, and I think it is a very good thing!!!

You got your million shares.

Following the fireside chat, a webcast replay will be available via a link on Avid’s investor website at: http://ir.avidbio.com/investor-events.

Nick and Pramthesh start their fireside chat in an hour.

https://ir.avidbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/avid-bioservices-participate-craig-hallum-bioprocessing

Would love to see at least 1 million shares traded today, but will take it either way....not sure how much higher we can go without some news???

This beats where we were but Lordy I still kick myself for not dumping at $34 or whatever it was. It will return but will I live that long? We'll see LOL!

Rippn north folks, congrats to those who held

The situation with Halo and cdmo today
could spark a takeover...just my opinion..
The shorts are probably in arbitrage mode
likely locking up a spread between the short
and long........GLTA longs....

Unusual we are up almost a dollar and HALO is down 2.43.

Quote: "Breakout trade CONFIRMED breakout above 11.7 Target:13.27,"...

12.8% Stop: 11.3 Loss: 3.9%
P/L ratio: 3.3 : 1 - Excellent"

*******************************
At Least According To:

https://www.stockconsultant.com/consultnow/basicplus.cgi?symbol=CDMO

Glta $CDMO Bulls, Watchers, & StockHOLDers!

IDK , IMO the interest rate cut could push us north.

Futures up +492.

One more day of downward pressure/consolidation. In my opinion of course.

FFTT
JBAIN

Hi!! All MM Signaling of intent ...

What is the point of these 1 share trades?
Date/Time Price Shares Exch/Mkt
09/18/2024 19:13:42 EDT I 11.99 1 NDD
09/18/2024 16:56:38 EDT I 11.13 1 EDGX
09/18/2024 16:37:56 EDT W 11.42 88223

And we're stuck with a 7% note to pay. We better get more business because if you run the numbers
Yearly interest payments
$125 million at 1.25% = $1,562,500
$160 million at 7% = $11,200,000
Difference $9,637,500
That means we have to do about $32 million more in revenue to pay for the higher interest payment(That's if Avid does a 30% margin)
Last quarter they did 14% margin which would require a $69 million increase in revenue to pay the new interest payment

JUst my logical thoughts.
Cutting rates will make getting financing for startups much easier. With that thouyght AVID should be getting more business.

In my opinion it COULD be the MM picking up some easy shares to go with the rate cut surprise. Oh My

FFTT
JBAIN

Looks like you spoke to soon.😊

Well it looks like we have our answer...... Next bottom likely below 11 but 10.50 isn't out of the question. All my opinion of course.

FFTT
JBAIN

Today looks to be about 50-50 whether we set a new 52 week high (+3.2%) or we get pushed back down towards the $11 level. If we continue to push higher, the next stop is likely about $12.50. All in my opinion of course 😁

FFTT
JBAIN

This painting the tape I like. Doubt it holds.

09/17/2024 16:40:09 EDT I 11.93 14 NDD

Well, to be fair, the entire market pulled back towards the end of the day, so unlike some days, the stock was trading very much like the overall market today. Avid Stock price appreciation percentage still bettered the Russell 2000 ave for the day....so all in all, a pretty good positive.

Now will the share price find a way into the $12's in the coming week or two(or heaven forbid, back into the $10's or)??? I am not sure...we will see!

traaa lllaaaaa llllllllaaaaa llllalaaaa

I don't think it will unless there are significant "real" shorts that need to cover. Volume is showing this is still MM trading so I would expect they take it down again.

FFTT
JBAIN

Nice call Jbainsky....now lets see if it will hold as the volume is still on the lighter side!!!

Ummm NEW 52 week HIGH!
Hopefully this nice run up will continue and persevere through market conditions and MM Manipulation… all the best to all longs!

TAAAA-DAAAA!

will today start a run of 52 week highs? We are set up that way and the flying little bear in no where to be found.

IMO it is going to be tough to move much higher until the company demonstrates that they will be able to make a profit(not just build on their backlog)by actually making a dent in their excess capacity! The current convertible financing agreement is set up much more to favour the issuer of the debt than the recipient with a low strike price($9's) and a high 7% interest rate especially in light of the fact that we are now entering a longer term time line of falling interest rates....this refi was done at the height of the interest rate cycle.

Now I have not seen the financing document, but I would hope(and believe) that management would have the option to pay off the loan before its maturity date....especially with rates falling going forward?

So if I was Daniel Hart, I would be searching to see if there is a better deal out there, as in a lower rate with a higher strike price on the convertible. The company was in an emergency type situation(although I will not and do not understand why the original loan had to be paid back immediately which is a little bizzare to say the least) and so had to make a deal that may not have been the greatest but was one they were forced to make out of necessity.

So basically cutting a deal with a sort of White knight financier to negotiate some kind of a financing vehicle that would provide enough funding to pay off the original agreement at much better terms! This would certainly make sense to me!!

Now it may be a little early, but perhaps in 12-18 months, Avid will be in a stronger position and rates will be probably be 1.5 to 2 points lower and this would really help their interest costs.

Or perhaps just have the White Knight buy us out???

Some things to ponder while we seem to be stuck in the current share price range.

FYI

My post# 346268 "This is just my opinion"
My post# 346265 " This is just my opinion of course"
My post# 346217 " I believe the problem is"

I try to state that things I post are my opinion, and your right I don't always do that, but everyone should know nothing posted on here should be taken as fact.
I guess posting that nothing posted here should be taken as fact is really my opinion, or is it?🤨

djohn

IMO It is hard to make money when typically 20-50 thousand shares at the beginning of the day dictates the price . So if you short 50,000 to get the PPS lower it mostly stays at that price . Same for up days IMO not enough volume in-between to make money all IMO Also there are more traders then just the note holder which IMO you seem to bring up as the reason for the above. You should state that your post is your opinion instead of portraying them as fact


Michael

Has anyone noticed our 52 week high is
now 11.57? We all know where we've been, but we could be on new high list soon...
Stranger things have happened!!!

Hi hay,
Convertible Arbitrage is a neutral position that makes profits on volatility. I don't think they're here to create downward pressure. They're here to create volatility and trade off of it to make money while being protected both on the downside and upside. Plus collecting the 7% dividend payment and interest on the cash received selling the borrowed stock they shorted.

"Breakout trade WATCH for possible breakout above 11.7"...

"Target: 13.18, 17.8% Stop: 10.63 Loss: 5%
P/L ratio: 3.6 : 1 - Excellent"
***************************************************

At Least According To:

https://www.stockconsultant.com/consultnow/basicplus.cgi?symbol=CDMO

Glta $CDMO Bulls, Watchers, & StockHOLDers!

Westjetter

It was Djohn that started the Debt holders doing all the shorting speculation but IMO they do not account for ALL the down pressure as he seems to think
IMO

Preciouslife

I get that when the big one hits everything on wall street will crash ! My point was if it was in orange county that may have been an issue for us short term

Michael

Hi! Seriously?? 104 miles in relation to the size of the San Andreas fault???
All of California is at risk for a BIG EARTHQUAKE NOT a 3-4.7 Magnitude Quake!!
https://www.google.com/gasearch?q=quake%20in%20California&source=sh/x/gs/m2/5

When you hear/see news about a s/Cal earthquake...go here... https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards gives you a link to find it ...then a regional map option is displayed to see epicenter in relation to tustin... like this was zoom feature w/ the malibu quake ... rhttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ci40731623/map ...r

preciouslife

Just to say the two counties are 104 miles apart

Michael

That would be the final act for this team to find out that an earthquake caused excessive damage and they had overlooked adequate insurance coverage to cover their operation.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/12/us/california-earthquake-ventura-county/index.html?utm_campaign=mb&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=morning_brew

CDMO née PPHM is still hanging in there, I see.

OK...perhaps I did not understand...I was referring to the first part of your statement...not every share traded is by the debt holders...don't know where that came from, but yes the other sentence was certainly mine.....referring to whether the $11's will hold or if the convertible holders will again short this down and play the volatility game....and to add to this....others are also able to short in a thinly traded stock like Avid has been on some days.

Let' see what happens and if we can hold the $11's or even head to $12 which I did not think we would touch for several months...again hope I was wrong in that assumption!

westjetter ???
Yes you did or Did someone else write it using your name ?? Last sentence

So yes it was a setback and now is somewhat of a millstone, but it is one they can shed and shareholders can still profit greatly if Avid fully gets their sh-- together. The share price seems to be responding nicely and coming back to their highs of several weeks ago, so I guess we all hang in there and see if the new price in the $11's will hold or if the convertible holders will again short this down and play the volatility game??



Michael

Any concern about the Malibu earthquake?

Think of it this way... there is always "normal" trading going on where shares are traded between "real" shareholders, both retail and institutional. At the same time, especially when there is low volume trading, the MM is also trading with themselves, moving shares between long and short positions making money as they move the PPS around (it's their job). Then add in the arbitrage holder, (again could be a MM or in close relationship with one) who wants to move the PPS around and is covered by the convertible. End result is 1M+ shares "traded" but only a fraction of that is the "real" trades. Thus there is changes in the short positions and not much in the institutional holdings. Also why you can have over 100% institutional holding.

The game only ends when there is increased interest in the company and there is significantly more "real" trading. It is reduced when the convertible is gone, but the MM is still moving the PPS.

FFTT
JBAIN

I never made this statement, and I have no real idea who is trading what, but yes the convertible holders(or any other shareholders for that matter) do have an influence on the share price and yes when we are traded thinly, they can manipulate things up, or down! IMO

IMO
Since Sept 9 Monday was a down day any holders that sold or bought on margin have until close today to cover IMO

Michael

westjetter

Is this statement your opinion or fact ? Not every share traded is by the debt holders !

if the convertible holders will again short this down and play the volatility game??

Michael