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26.66
0.50
(1.91%)
Closed February 23 04:00PM
26.48
-0.18
( -0.68% )
Pre Market: 09:18AM

Calls

StrikeBid PriceAsk PriceLast PriceMidpointChangeChange %VolumeOPEN INTLast Trade
21.500.000.000.000.000.000.00 %00-
22.004.754.754.754.750.000.00 %0125-
22.500.000.000.000.000.000.00 %00-
23.003.673.673.673.670.000.00 %031-
23.500.000.000.000.000.000.00 %00-
24.002.702.702.702.700.000.00 %062-
24.502.132.132.132.130.000.00 %041-
25.001.791.791.791.790.000.00 %0150-
25.501.311.311.311.310.000.00 %0139-
26.000.850.850.850.850.000.00 %0748-
26.500.520.520.520.520.000.00 %01,072-
27.000.290.290.290.290.000.00 %04,004-
27.500.150.150.150.150.000.00 %06,467-
28.000.080.080.080.080.000.00 %07,775-
28.500.050.050.050.050.000.00 %01,016-
29.000.030.030.030.030.000.00 %01,112-
29.500.010.010.010.010.000.00 %0406-
30.000.020.020.020.020.000.00 %01,186-
30.500.020.020.020.020.000.00 %0620-
31.000.020.020.020.020.000.00 %04,477-

Puts

StrikeBid PriceAsk PriceLast PriceMidpointChangeChange %VolumeOPEN INTLast Trade
21.500.000.000.000.000.000.00 %00-
22.000.070.070.070.070.000.00 %01-
22.500.000.000.000.000.000.00 %00-
23.000.010.010.010.010.000.00 %029-
23.500.040.040.040.040.000.00 %09-
24.000.010.010.010.010.000.00 %0173-
24.500.030.030.030.030.000.00 %0328-
25.000.030.030.030.030.000.00 %01,007-
25.500.070.070.070.070.000.00 %0462-
26.000.170.170.170.170.000.00 %06,013-
26.500.340.340.340.340.000.00 %03,275-
27.000.590.590.590.590.000.00 %02,421-
27.500.960.960.960.960.000.00 %0820-
28.001.371.371.371.370.000.00 %0400-
28.501.811.811.811.810.000.00 %0108-
29.002.362.362.362.360.000.00 %0207-
29.502.992.992.992.990.000.00 %07-
30.003.153.153.153.150.000.00 %00-
30.502.992.992.992.990.000.00 %00-
31.003.403.403.403.400.000.00 %00-

Market Movers

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SymbolPriceVol.
AAGRAfrican Agriculture Holdings Inc
$ 0.763
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339
AADRAdvisorShares Dorsey Wright ADR ETF
$ 58.115
(0.00%)
0
AADIAadi Bioscience Inc
$ 1.90
(0.00%)
145
AACIArmada Acquisition Corporation I
$ 10.99
(0.00%)
6
AACGATA Creativity Global
$ 1.22
(0.00%)
14
AAGRAfrican Agriculture Holdings Inc
$ 0.763
(0.00%)
339
AADRAdvisorShares Dorsey Wright ADR ETF
$ 58.115
(0.00%)
0
AADIAadi Bioscience Inc
$ 1.90
(0.00%)
145
AACIArmada Acquisition Corporation I
$ 10.99
(0.00%)
6
AACGATA Creativity Global
$ 1.22
(0.00%)
14
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$ 0.0539
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34.27M
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24.67M
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11.33M

GDX Discussion

View Posts
trunkmonk trunkmonk 2 hours ago
This guy nailed it.
Matthew Piepenburg, partner at Matterhorn Asset Management: It’s almost comical to watch policy makers of all stripes and country codes caught in a corner yet pretending we don’t notice.

Children In Charge
I’m reminded of the kid with his hand in the cookie jar while pretending his parents can’t see him—denying his guilt despite the crumbs falling from his face.

Again: It’s almost comical.

But there’s really nothing funny at all about major economies crawling into recession (Germany, Japan, UK, China) or denying recession (USA) while our mental midgets from DC to the EU play with bonds, inflation currency and war like kindergarteners with gas and matches.

Can’t Hide the Debt Cookie Crumbs
Speaking of kids caught with crumbs on their face while denying responsibility, it seems that even our central bankers can’t keep hiding the facts of now “unsustainable debt” (Powell) with clever lies, such as they had tried to do in the past:



In short, the days of hiding bad math behind empty words are now coming to an end, as most recently evidenced by another comical treasury market auction (below).

Keep It Simple: Debt & Bonds
As we’ve repeated ad nauseum, “the bond market is the thing,” and its survival, like a diesel V8 engine, lives and dies on liquidity/grease—i.e. dollars.

After trillions in outright grotesque QE grease following the bond crisis of 2020 and a hidden TBTF bank bailout (disguised as pandemic relief), the combined efforts of the Fed and Treasury Dept (i.e., the yin and yang of Powell and Yellen) to provide backdoor liquidity to this thirsty market are both tragic and remarkable.

Despite Powell’s headline tightening since 2022, the level of direct Fed liquidity is still tens of billions per month, and the hundreds of billions provisionally drawn from the reverse repo markets, the Treasury General Account (TGA), the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) are just QE by another pathway.

In addition to these tricks, tack on Yellen’s desperate attempt to issue trillions from the short end of the yield curve to take supply (and price) pressure off the sacred U.S. 10-Year, we can trace more examples of open desperation and backdoor liquidity by another name.

But at some point, all these liquidity tricks (as well as liquidity) run dry…
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tootalljones tootalljones 4 days ago
NEM went to 14 bucks less than a decade ago.
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tootalljones tootalljones 4 days ago
NEM went to 14 bucks less than a decade ago.
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tootalljones tootalljones 4 days ago
NEM went to 14 bucks less than a decade ago.
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tootalljones tootalljones 4 days ago
the whole sector should collapse on NEM's earnings, or lack thereof and thank heavens I sold. In the mining sector, as doug casey remarked a long time ago, ..most of the times you will lose money and a lot of it, on the other hand there are those unusual times which don't come along very often, where you can triple your money.....unfortunately this is not one of those times. Great Article by a smart guy who knows the sector right here.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4671302-gdx-more-pain-in-store-for-beaten-down-gold-miners

GDX: More Pain In Store For Beaten Down Gold Miners
Feb. 18, 2024 11:25 PM ETVanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX)NEM, GOLD, RING, ABX:CA, NGT:CA38 Comments
Stuart Allsopp profile picture
Stuart Allsopp
6.07K Followers
Summary
VanEck Gold Miners ETF is trading at multi-year lows relative to gold, but this merely reflects the ongoing deterioration in the sector's fundamentals.
Declining profits and free cash flows, along with deteriorating balance sheets, are contributing to the sector's challenges, with dividends set to be slashed.
Weak fundamentals leave gold miners highly susceptible to falling gold prices, with previous cash crunches resulting in the GDX trading below book value, which is still 30% below current valuations.
Construction Workers Inspecting Site
SeventyFour

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX) is trading at multi-year lows relative to gold, but there may still be pain ahead for the sector as free cash flows remain under pressure and balance sheets continue to deteriorate. Since my last update on the ETF in June last year, the slight increase in gold prices has failed to arrest the ongoing decline in profits and free cash flows, and the market remains highly susceptible to a crisis of confidence. The latest decline in gold prices amid fading hopes of early rate cuts is a warning sign for GDX investors, and a further decline in the metal could easily result in a 30% decline in the ETF.

The GDX ETF
The GDX is the largest gold mining ETF, tracking the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Mining Index. Newmont (NEM) has the largest weighting on the index which has risen to 13.2% from 10.2% in June despite its underperformance since then as share issuance has risen. Barrick Gold (GOLD), the second-largest stock, has seen its weighting remain broadly unchanged at 8.8%. GDX's main competitor in the large-cap gold space is the iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING), with the main difference being the latter's higher concentration of NEM and GOLD, which make up a combined 32% of the index vs. 23 for GDX. This comes at the expense of a slightly higher expense fee, which is 0.51% for the GDX versus 0.39% for RING. It also results in the GDX having a lower dividend yield of 1.8% versus 2.3% as NEM offers a significantly higher yield than the other stocks in the index, with a 4.8% yield. As explained below, dividend payouts look set to fall significantly over the coming months.

Price Declines Reflect Ongoing Fundamental Deterioration
After continuing to decline despite robust gold prices, one might expect the GDX to be trading at discounted valuations, but the sector still cannot seem to translate high gold prices into sales, earnings and free cash flows. The chart below shows the gold price alongside various sales and earnings estimates rebased to three years ago. The most concerning is the ongoing decline in free cash flows, which have fallen over 80% over this period. As a result, the GDX trades at 58x forward free cash flow estimates.

Chart
Gold Price Vs GDX Sales And Earnings (Bloomberg)

Forward free cash flows are now below trailing dividend payments, which makes further dividend cuts all but certain. They have already declined by 14% on a per-share basis since their peak in early 2022, and it would not be surprising to see a repeat of the aggressive cuts seen during the 2013-2016 period as management looks to shore up balance sheets once again in response to declining net cash positions. The index's net cash position has been in decline since 2021, with debt once again rising and cash and short-term investments in decline.

Chart
GDX Dividends Per Share And FCF Per Share (Bloomberg)

A Fall To Book Value Would Require A 30% Decline
If gold miners have performed poorly in a gold bull market, it is worth thinking about what could be in store if gold prices undergo a meaningful correction. The increasingly precarious cash positions in the gold mining sector could cause panic selling in the GDX in response to a drop in gold, as we have seen on previous occasions, most notably in 2008 and 2013. During these gold price declines, the GDX price to book value briefly traded below 1x as investor focus shifted from return on capital to return on capital. From 1.4x at present, a decline in book value would result in a loss of almost 30%.

Chart
GDX PB Ratio Vs Free Cash Flows (Bloomberg)

Upside Risks Cannot Be Ignored, But Gold Would Need To Move Much Higher
The main risk to my bearish thesis comes from renewed upside momentum in gold. Despite the GDX's long-term underperformance, it still has a track record of outperforming gold during periods of strong gold price gains. If gold were to rise by 10% and this translated directly into a 10% increase in sales, at current margins, free cash flows would triple, bringing the free cash flow yield back up to 6%, which is where it was at the 2021 peak. That said, such a move in gold prices at current high real interest rates is highly unlikely, and even if it were to occur we would also likely see mining sector costs rise. On balance, the risks remain heavily skewed to the downside.
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tootalljones tootalljones 6 days ago
The Gold majors *(let alone the small fries), remind me of my biggest score ever, U.S. steel, which was hated and despised, left for dead. Goldman sachs assigned a biotech korean analysist to track it and she issued a sell recommendation when it was 21, driving it for a couple days to below 19. I couldn't believe it....18 months later it was 52. It has now been bought out by a japanes company for almost 49 bucks, but the higher offer, from steelmaker Cleveland Cliffs is still on the table.

Looks at irrational price movements as an opportunity to simply load up and wait. NEM for instance, make well over 400 million in cash for every 100 dollars increase in the gold price, and it is also ramping production to add almost 400 million more ounces per annum very soon. I expect in 2 to 3 years NEM to be producing 8 million or so gold ounces (let alone massive copper and even silver). The stock like all the majors is wildly undervalued, as U.S steel was for 3 to 5 years.....

We are looking at a case of the market simply disbelieving in gold mining, despite the rise in the price, its certainty of moving much much higher in the next several years, all of that high priced gold falling to the bottom line at NEM and others. Pure profit, ..the divi is now almost 5 percent. When Gold is at 3000 POG, which is a certainty, ...NEM will be 150 bucks and kicking out a 6.5 percent divi and the generalist funds will be believers and buying like mad hatters................Just like U.S. steel that they despised but then, the profits simply overwhelmed Wall street and forced them to believe and buy. NEM is at the very bottom of an incredible price quadruple and so are some of the others. It is all about massive production ounces and leverage, with basically fixed costs, to a commodity that must skyrocket and will.
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tootalljones tootalljones 6 days ago
The Gold majors *(let alone the small fries), remind me of my biggest score ever, U.S. steel, which was hated and despised, left for dead. Goldman sachs assigned a biotech korean analysist to track it and she issued a sell recommendation when it was 21, driving it for a couple days to below 19. I couldn't believe it....18 months later it was 52. It has now been bought out by a japanes company for almost 49 bucks, but the higher offer, from steelmaker Cleveland Cliffs is still on the table.

Looks art irrational price movements as an opportunity to simply load up and wait. NEM for instance, make well over 400 million in cash for every 100 dollars increase in the gold price, and it is also ramping production to add almost 400 million more ounces per annum very soon. I expect in 2 to 3 years NEM to be producing 8 million or so gold ounces (let alone massive copper and even silver). The stock like all the majors is wildly undervalued, as U.S steel was for 3 to 5 years.....

We are looking at a case of the market simply disbelieving in gold mining, despite the rise in the price, its certainty of moving much much higher in the next several years, all of that high priced gold falling to the bottom line at NEM and others. Pure profit, ..the divi is now almost 5 percent. When Gold is at 3000 POG, which is a certainty, ...NEM will be 130 bucks and kicking out a 6.5 percent divi and the generalist funds will be believers and buying like mad hatters................Just like U.S. steel that they despised but then, the profits simply overwhelmed Wall street and forced them to believe and buy
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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 7 days ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 17, 2024

The NY Gold Futures has been in an uptrend for the past 2 days closing above the previous session's high. Currently, the market is trading above one of our three internal momentum indicators warning there is at least some underlying support forming. Nevertheless, on our indicating ranges, the market still remains a partial bearish position yet there is showing underlying support but it is trading strongly higher up some 1.26% from the previous session low. Our projected target for closing resistance for the next session stands at 20426, we need to close above that target to imply a further advance. Failure to even exceed this intraday warns that the upward momentum is starting to decline. Nevertheless, this session closed below our ideal projection for closing resistance warning that the market which stood at 20440 is forming a high. A break of this session's low of 20066 will warn that we have a potential temporary high in place.

Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during December 2023. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2023, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022 which signaled the rally would continue into 2023. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 1 years in the making.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 20343 and support forming below at 20173. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 4th at 21523, which was up 9 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 2nd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 17 weeks reaching a high during the week of January 29th at 20377. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks, which has been a sharp move of 4.166% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 18235 as it has fallen back reaching only 4523 which still remains -75.1% above the former low.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.

Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of January 29th reaching 20832 failed to exceed the previous high of 20982 made back during the week of December 25th in 2023. That rally amounted to only five weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 20040. Additional support is to be found at 20173. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 2 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Critical support still underlies this market at 19070 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.

DiscoverGold
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tootalljones tootalljones 1 week ago
excellent future. The next 2 to 7 years gonna be tremendous for the miners.

insert-text-here
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trunkmonk trunkmonk 1 week ago
This chart will be history repeating itself, Naz has the originators of the bubble, the feds words will come true again "irrational exuberance" has taken on a global meaning that goes beyond it. women everywhere are pumping the pyramid in every corner of the crypto world. its near or at market peaks. just like then, all the dot bong stocks and funds will implode with brilliant exuberance. only thing you need to is replace dot com with bit bong, and time it to be about 1999 vs right now.



what will be much more explosive and take no time whatsoever, is the response of gold, why, its 31k behind where it should be. just like golds response to dot com was last century, gold will exceed that by about 4x this time.

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tootalljones tootalljones 1 week ago

Gold and the miners will be up dramatically between now and year end. 2024 will kick off the new bull market in gold and the miners.
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tootalljones tootalljones 1 week ago
Gold and the Miners are set to start a major bull market to 3,000.....The jib is up.



5:36 / 19:21


Gold's Final Shakeout
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trunkmonk trunkmonk 1 week ago
2/21 is a biggie for commodities, and da dollar, watch closely and read between the lines people.
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trunkmonk trunkmonk 2 weeks ago
If gold market was working, it would have done a clean and jerk back to 2030s. It’s noted that it didn’t, instead it was clubbed below 2000 and it’s trying to make it resistance point. Lets see who wins as everything falls apart.
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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 weeks ago
$GDX - Attempting that Channel Recovery...
By: Sahara | February 15, 2024

• $GDX - Attempting that Channel Recovery...



Read Full Story »»»

DiscoverGold
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trunkmonk trunkmonk 2 weeks ago
It’s how it works, CPI pinches consumers, consumers can’t buy as much. Doesn’t anyone understand anything anymore???


https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/retail-sales-tumble-much-more-than-expected-january

Wait till they all wake up about fake and buttered employment hits the markets.
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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | February 10, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 6, 2024.

Gold: Currently net long 161.7k, up 13.9k.



On Thursday last week, gold rallied as high as $2,083 but only to close out the week at $2,054/ounce. The metal has failed at this level several times in the past.

In August 2020, the metal posted a new all-time high of $2,089 and retreated. The reversal occurred again in March 2022 when it printed $2,079 and in May last year when $2,085 was tagged, followed by rejection in late December and early January this year. Then on December 4th last year, gold rose as high as $2,152 but reversed to close the session at $2,042.

After last week’s rejection, gold retreated this week, down 0.7 percent to $2,039. It can continue lower near term, with horizontal support just north of $2,000.

Read Full Story »»»

DiscoverGold
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trunkmonk trunkmonk 2 weeks ago
Gold clubbed like a baby seal today, down 40 points, worst i have ever seen it when everything says takeoff to da moon in the plus direction. what does that mean.... we will all find out at some point.
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trunkmonk trunkmonk 2 weeks ago
Gold should be taking off, and miners should not be dropping. Still manipulated and hated in the order.
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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 weeks ago
$GDX - Dropped from the 'Coil'. Failure to recover favours the 'Inv H&S' Plot to play out to targets...
By: Sahara | February 13, 2024

• $GDX - Dropped from the 'Coil'.

Failure to recover favours the 'Inv H&S' Plot to play out to targets...



Read Full Story »»»

DiscoverGold
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trunkmonk trunkmonk 2 weeks ago
In the years I have been watching gold I have never seen it react this way, at this point in its cycle it should have dropped, stopped, and rolled back up. Something is broken and now believe the Fed is in complete panic mode. The Fed watches gold everyday. It is the sole indicator of economic indicators, if they are trying to control it, the coupled spring of reality will return. It’s never been so mixed up as it is today.
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tootalljones tootalljones 2 weeks ago
bought a ton of NEM this a.m.....below 33 bucks. a 5 percent yield. as somebody on seeking alpha said, "buy the plunge." Should have materially improved earnings this year. The chinese are buying gold like crazy; if the americans decide to buy a thin slice then gold should take off. NEM did a really smart thing buying in 2023, Newcrest. I consider last year the bottom of the gold miner stock bear market; but so far, the bear has continued.....NEM is cheaper easily than Barrick, both cheaper than AEM. Holding my nose buying the plunge...the longer term game plan is that Gold hits 2500 in 2.5 years and NEM is easily over 100.
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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 weeks ago
$GDX - Update...
By: Sahara | February 12, 2024

• $GDX - Update.

Contra to the 'Coils I showed on the lngr-term charts prior, we do have a tighter 'Coil' on the Daily here which has the backing of the Ratio charts...



Read Full Story »»»

DiscoverGold
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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 weeks ago
$GDX - Broke below the January low. It's approaching the support range of the March 2023 and October 2023 lows at 25.62-26.58. If it doesn't bottom in this range it will likely bottom at the trendline that connects the March 2020 low and the September 2022 low.
By: CyclesFan | February 10, 2024

• $GDX - Broke below the January low. It's approaching the support range of the March 2023 and October 2023 lows at 25.62-26.58. If it doesn't bottom in this range it will likely bottom at the trendline that connects the March 2020 low and the September 2022 low.



Read Full Story »»»

DiscoverGold
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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 weeks ago
Gold Miners’ Q4’23 Preview
By: Adam Hamilton | February 9, 2024

The gold stocks’ latest earnings season is nearing, and it should prove awesome. Plenty of the major gold miners were forecasting lower costs heading into year-end, which boost profits. Amplifying them much more, last quarter gold achieved its first record closes in several years. So this sector is preparing to report what will likely prove some of its fattest earnings ever, which ought to fuel some interest in gold stocks.

For thirty quarters in a row now, I’ve painstakingly analyzed the latest results reported by GDX’s major gold miners. This VanEck Gold Miners ETF dominates this sector, commanding 30.5x the assets of its next-largest 1x-long major-gold-miners-ETF competitor! Right after every earnings season, I dig into the latest quarterly reports from GDX’s 25 largest component stocks including the world’s biggest gold miners.

Interestingly Q4 data is the most challenging to analyze. Most gold miners operate on calendar years, so some companies simply report full-year results lumping in Q4. That leaves considerably-less quarterly detail than normal non-year-ending quarters. While some Q4 numbers can be backed out using Q3 year-to-date ones, not all can. So from a sector level, Q4 results are less granular than Q1, Q2, and Q3 ones.

Further complicating Q4 analyses, the regulatory filing deadlines after year-ending quarters run much later. Annual reports are way longer and require much more effort to prepare than quarterly ones. In the US, publicly-traded companies have to file 10-Q quarterlies with the SEC by 40 days after quarter-ends. But the deadline for full 10-K annuals extends to 60 days, so many gold miners report in late February.

These reporting deadlines are even looser in Canada, the epicenter of the gold-stock universe. Normal quarterly reports for larger gold miners are due 45 days after quarter-ends, but annual deadlines extend way out to 90 days! So plenty of Canadian gold miners don’t report Q4 results until late March. And on Canadian venture stock exchanges where smaller gold miners list, those deadlines are 60 days and 120 days.

So attaining a largely-complete picture on Q4 gold-stock sector results requires waiting well into March, when Q1 is almost over! As a speculator and investor I’ve always thought it frustrating to delay that long. I usually do my Q4 analytical work in March, rather than in the second months after normal quarter-ends. But after many years of digging into these quarterly and annual reports, some key results are predictable.

While gold mining is complex and challenging, gold-mining earnings are fairly simple. Profits are just the difference between prevailing gold prices and the costs of producing gold. So a great proxy for sector earnings subtracts the GDX-top-25 gold miners’ average all-in sustaining costs from quarterly-average gold prices. That reveals the major gold miners’ collective profits per ounce, illuminating key earnings trends.

While the cost side of this equation requires some estimates, gold prices don’t. In Q4’23, gold averaged $1,976 on close. That surged a big 14.2% year-over-year, and was just a hair under the all-time record of $1,978 from Q2’23! So last quarter gold was trading at record levels, and achieved its first new record closes in 3.3 years. That was no fluke either, with Q1’24 shattering that averaging $2,031 quarter-to-date.

Gold being 14% higher last quarter doesn’t just make for 14%-better earnings, as gold-mining profits leverage higher gold prices. A year ago in Q4’22, the GDX-top-25 gold stocks averaged $1,267 AISCs while gold averaged $1,731. That made for implied unit profits of $463 per ounce, about one-fourth up into the past 30 quarters’ range. If AISCs stayed flat and gold rallied 14%, earnings would surge way more.

Q4’23’s $1,976 average gold prices less $1,267 AISCs would yield $709 in unit profits, rocketing up 53.0% YoY! The gold miners’ big profits leverage to their metal is a primary ingredient in their allure. When gold is powering higher on balance, gold-stock earnings and stock prices usually soar. So mining costs aside, last quarter’s near-record gold prices alone greatly boosted profitability. Q4 results will look fantastic.

Most of the major gold miners provide all-in-sustaining-cost guidance, target ranges where they expect AISCs to shake out. Full-year guidances are usually given early in Q1s, then sometimes later refined after Q2 or Q3 results if production is better or worse than expected. Naturally Q3 guidances for any particular year are the most-accurate, as gold miners have three established quarters of production to predict from.

In their latest Q3’23 results, the GDX-top-25 gold miners averaged midpoint full-year-2023 AISC guides of $1,304 per ounce. That’s 2.9% higher than Q4’22’s, and in-line with Q3’23’s $1,304. But it’s important to realize that $1,304 is a full-year forecast. During 2023’s first three quarters, the major gold miners’ AISCs averaged $1,313, $1,380, and $1,304 per ounce. Average those, and they ran about $1,332 year-to-date in Q3.

To achieve that $1,304 average full-year midpoint guidance, Q4 AISCs have to drop low enough to offset 2023’s first two quarters’ higher levels. The number that makes that work is way down at $1,220 per ounce! I suspect that is a bit too optimistic, but the gold miners themselves are collectively predicting that Q4 will see last year’s lowest AISCs. $1,220 would prove their best quarterly average since back in Q4’21.

That’s not a big stretch, as that would merely make for a 3.7%-YoY decline from Q4’22’s $1,267. In Q3’23, the major gold miners’ average AISCs plunged 7.2% YoY to $1,304. But for conservatism’s sake, let’s assume the GDX-top-25 AISCs last quarter will shake out around $1,275. That would make for a slight 0.6%-YoY rise, and leave full-year all-in sustaining costs near $1,318. That really portends fat profits.

Last quarter’s $1,976 average gold price less $1,275 projected AISCs yields implied unit earnings of $701 per ounce. That would soar 51.3% YoY from Q4’22’s $463, and would prove the most-profitable quarter for major gold miners as a sector since Q2’21. That would also be over 2/3rds up into the GDX top 25’s 30-quarter range of per-ounce earnings. 2020 saw bigger profits before inflation started raging out of control.

That year GDX-top-25 AISCs averaged just $1,013, which was still much higher than all the years before. While there are some exceptional low-cost gold mines in the world, overall AISCs will never retreat back to pre-inflation levels. In just 25.5 months from February 2020 just before the pandemic-lockdown stock panic to April 2022, the Fed ballooned its balance sheet or the US monetary base by 115.6% or $4,807b!

As of last week the Fed’s balance sheet still remains 83.5% or $3,471b higher than pre-pandemic levels! And other major central banks followed suit in redlining their monetary printing presses in recent years. So with global money supplies far higher, general price levels including mining costs will never return to where they were. But that enormous monetary inflation baked into the world economy is very bullish for gold.

Global gold prices will almost certainly eventually normalize at levels reflecting this crazy money-supply growth. Gold averaged $1,577 in January and February 2020 before central banks panicked. Climbing 80% from there just to reflect the Fed’s huge dollar inflation alone not even considering the rest of the world’s would catapult gold near $2,839. Gold ought to continue climbing faster than AISCs in coming years.

With the major gold miners set to reveal blockbuster results in coming weeks, will traders care? Depends on these markets. Despite gold’s near-record Q4’23 and record-shattering Q1’24 so far, speculators and investors aren’t paying attention. The gold stocks continue to languish well out of favor, nowhere near reflecting today’s high prevailing gold prices. GDX has mostly drifted sideways on balance in recent months.



As of midweek, gold’s young upleg since its last major bottoming in early October clocked in at 11.7% gains. Yet over that same span, GDX has dismally only rallied 4.3%. That makes for terrible 0.4x upside leverage to gold. As gold stocks are much riskier than gold itself, they have to well outperform their metal on balance to be worth owning. Normally the major gold stocks of GDX amplify material gold moves by 2x to 3x.

So had this sector been performing properly, GDX would be between 23% to 35% higher over the past four months. In share-price terms, that equates to about $32.50 to $35.50. This chart would look much better if GDX was higher in that normal range rather than languishing near $27.50. Yet despite gold stocks’ ugly lagging recently, GDX remains in a well-defined bull uptrend born way back in September 2022.

Though gold-stock prices are far too low to reflect these high prevailing gold levels or their own earnings-driven fundamentals, traders don’t care. Both gold and its miners’ stocks remain deeply out of favor. In this kind of environment mired with apathy and bearish sentiment, it probably won’t matter how good of Q4 gold miners report. If traders are indifferent and not paying attention, they won’t even notice those results...

* * *

Read Full Story »»»

DiscoverGold
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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 10, 2024

The NY Gold Futures closing today at 20387 is immediately trading down about 1.59% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Factually, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 20674, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in February is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.

Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during December 2023. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2023, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022 which signaled the rally would continue into 2023. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 1 years in the making.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 20388 and support forming below at 20208. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply that a bounce is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 4th at 21523, which was up 9 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 2nd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 17 weeks reaching a high during the week of January 29th at 20377. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past week, which has been a reasonable move of 2.515% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 18235 as it has fallen back reaching only 4523 which still remains -75.1% above the former low.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.

Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of January 29th reaching 20832 failed to exceed the previous high of 20982 made back during the week of December 25th in 2023. That rally amounted to only five weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 20046. Additional support is to be found at 20308.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Critical support still underlies this market at 19070 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

DiscoverGold
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trunkmonk trunkmonk 2 weeks ago
Gold spot to 2017 today, may test support below that, we see if it bounces or stays on a friday.
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BJ2018 BJ2018 3 weeks ago
I sold a tad still holding core positions. Its just manipulated got to hold some in these periods imho
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tootalljones tootalljones 3 weeks ago
and while usually nothing changes, ...almost always true, once in a while something does change. books have been written on disrupters. Disruptive technologies. Surely Bitcoin, a direct competitor to the miners, is one of them. It is good and well to say gold has been around for 5000 years, but over that time, ...there have been things like the industrial revolution, and the information revolution, which have changed the world for earthlings and bitcoin is part of the info revolution. It is a direct competitor to gold. Far more successful by 30 to 50 fold ...it is not even a close call to put it mildlly

will both gold and the miners and the coin suffer as assets in the event of a recession...yes of course they will and that too is not a coin toss this year.
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tootalljones tootalljones 3 weeks ago
I am convinced this time is slightly different. So here are the similarities
1. the miners are making money now, but not tons....with gold at 2020, the big producers are in pretty good shape, so too the developers. Still, the macro outlook gives mixed signals. It feels very buoyant, very 1999, and as we know in 1999, that great tech internet bull market, the miners were very bad. We today have a major tech bull market in AI, and the Big 7, so we should not be shocked to see the pattern repeat. A no brainer
2. the devastating differentiator is Bitcoin, and Ethe. The market cap of bitcoin and its associated products is staggering, something that puts the mining sector's market cap into the dumpster can. Clearly, people are buying bitcoin. It has gone mainstream and even the u.s. government allegedly has "diversified" into bitcoin.....And when any 30 or 40 year old looks at the returns of bitcoin the past year, vs. gold and especially gold miners, that ends the debate. Bitcoin is lapping gold to understate it.....So the money that is anti system, ...it is an easy choice which to pick, especially with the etf's being approved..
3. So what about the miners. Well historically, the solid gold miners have received healthy PEs on the nature of 20 to 30 to 1 type PEs. and even higher than 30 as befits a bull market in the metals...; now you can see them at less 15 perhaps the very finest that is.. But in lieu of bitcoin, that is probably no longer appropriate.

They deserve as a wildly under achieving asset class something lower and possibly far lower. When Steel manufacturers went out of favor, like U.S. steel, which has a lot of mining assets, as does Cleveland cliffs, the PEs went to 2 and 9 respectively. So there is a lot of room for PE shrinkage....and there is no time soon that AEM or Gold or NEM will have a PE anywhere close to even 10. ....so this does not bode well whatsoever.
We are in a bad spot in time, and also there is a competitive product. Killed on both ends. Steel waited many years for the companies to get a modicum of respect as they all shrank...U.S. steel from over 90 to 7 at the bottom, and cleveland from over 50 to 5 at the bottom....it took many many years. as the PEs shrank as the market collectively said, I don't want to own this sector, no matter how low the PEs, ..These companies are facing many headwinds, china among them, and so too today, the miners are in a bad spot in time, the 1990s revisited, plus they too have a hot rival like china called Bitcoin, running them out of buisness.
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tootalljones tootalljones 3 weeks ago
The more spot gold can hold above 2000, the confidence in the miners will start to grow...and now it looks like the POG has strong support at 2020......We could be in a position where the miners simply start to slowly inch up as investors start to believe they can make real money. POG at 2300 and they are doing well, but at 2700 they are cash machines....I think gold at 2500 will be the clarion call. GDX explodes from 50 to 70, and so forth...
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trunkmonk trunkmonk 3 weeks ago
we aint seen nutin yet.....
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/author-who-correctly-predicted-the-2008-recession-says-the-u-s-is-in-a-rapidly-spinning-into-a-debt-death-spiral/ss-BB1hRnJ1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=9eec733191824ec482117a3523aaf3ae&ei=27
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trunkmonk trunkmonk 3 weeks ago
they have a long long way up to get back to normal, i dont think its anything but sentiment that is way overdue. GDX has a long long way to go.
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tootalljones tootalljones 3 weeks ago
the miners are trading very heavy.....who knows but sometimes when they have done this in the past it says, (today with gold up 10 bucks), they they are sensing something wicked this way comes. ....a collapse?
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tootalljones tootalljones 3 weeks ago
i sold again.....F Pan and the Miners. will buy at 9
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BJ2018 BJ2018 3 weeks ago
I like pan american as well. Miner sure are acting crappy though ive been diversifying into some oil lately
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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 3 weeks ago
$GDX - If you can wait, and not get tired of waiting...
By: Sahara | February 2, 2024

• $GDX - If you can wait, and not get tired of waiting...



Read Full Story »»»

DiscoverGold
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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 3 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | February 3, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 30, 2024.

Gold: Currently net long 147.8k, down 21.7k.



Gold gapped up on Tuesday, reclaiming the 50-day. It remains above the average at $2,039. The downside, once again, is that gold bugs failed to hang on to all of the gains. By Thursday, the metal rallied as high as $2,083 but closed the week at $2,054/ounce, up 1.8 percent.

Non-commercials, in the meantime, continue to cut net longs in gold futures, which are at a 15-week low. These traders began to reduce their long exposure after the yellow metal failed to reclaim $2,080s.

Gold rose as high as $2,152 on December 4th but reversed to close the session at $2,042. Resistance at $2,080s has proven tough to crack. In August 2020, the metal posted a new all-time high of $2,089 and retreated. The reversal occurred again in March 2022 when it printed $2,079 and in May last year when $2,085 was tagged, followed by rejection in late December and early January. We can now add to this Thursday’s rejection. This opens the door to lower prints in the sessions ahead.

Read Full Story »»»

DiscoverGold
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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 3 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 3, 2024

The NY Gold Futures closing today at 20537 is immediately trading down about 0.87% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Factually, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 20674, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in February is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.

Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during December 2023. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2023, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022 which signaled the rally would continue into 2023. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 1 years in the making.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains neutral with resistance standing at 20628 and support forming below at 20471. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 4th at 21523, which was up 9 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 2nd. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of January 22nd, which has been a move of 3.952%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Critical support still underlies this market at 19070 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

DiscoverGold
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tootalljones tootalljones 3 weeks ago
there is no question whatsoever.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/02/is-bureau-labor-statistics-cooking-books-joe-biden/
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tootalljones tootalljones 3 weeks ago
all of which is why i am buying paas.
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tootalljones tootalljones 3 weeks ago
because right now, looking at the 2 or 3 year charts, the miners are clearly in a bear market, while the fantasy world of the funds and tutes have pushed the equities into a continuous bull market for years now, under the establishment narratives that lets you pay a PE of 30 or 40 or 50 ,for an S and P stock...
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tootalljones tootalljones 3 weeks ago
when i first got involved in the gold and gold mining sector the year was 2001. I stumbled out of the tech sector a winner, which was in a freefall...like all stocks. Solid mining stocks, which had been 13 bucks a share, were selling at 2 or 3 bucks. They were despised as gold went below 300 bucks an ounce. People had lost all or most of their money in the wild ponzi mania of the late 1990s which was in the process of bursting...........and so disillusioned, some of them, like me, went into the miners....which had been written off. Are we needing this sort of thing before the miners will be bought by the public and funds?
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tootalljones tootalljones 3 weeks ago
the bottom line here is that the central planners, with their endless government reports on employment or the economy, can crush the gold miners with their dicey press releases. It takes a genuine collapse of the stock market, for investors to lose faith in the governments endless predictions and largely dishonest economic reports. ..These ponzis can go on for a very long time. Even if for instance, the u.s. gov requires a trillion to service the debt, just to stay level, the investors don't care....as long as the FED and the dc agencies issue reports saying everything looks pretty good, the stock market will go up..............It takes something far more jolting, outside the system, to cause investors to lose their appetites for general equities.
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tootalljones tootalljones 3 weeks ago
PAAS, another sector bell weather, silver and gold producer, has been a terrible thing to own the past year or two. Seeking Alpha gives it a Sell rating, something you don't often see from their Quant rating system. has a 5 billion market cap, average financials and had a terrible last quarter and the current year looks bad as well, where once again, they will make no money. Mining is a very tough business to make money
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tootalljones tootalljones 3 weeks ago
A link I posted, suggested that there is simply no fresh money coming into the sector to buy the shares of the miners, and that essentially, the same jello is being pushed around the same old plate. In short nobody cares about the miners, and that mining is a very tough business, and for all these market caps in the billions or tens of billions of dollars, they do not make much money, and most make virtually none. They also commented that young people have no regard for gold in the West, which is true. Bitcoin is their near exclusive choice. These are serious arguments. Until there is a true wipeout of the existing financial regime in the west, there could be hard sledding. Today's report from dept of labor suggests to the public that the fed and the central planners are very capably handling the economy, and the debt service will be accomplished.
This is all nonsense but the market loves their message, the S and P up huge, with its tech behemoths.
AEM down 2.5 bucks suggests the Jello players in that stock are pushing it away, a bad sign for the sector which looks poised to invade old lows of the past year.
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tootalljones tootalljones 3 weeks ago
wrong again, sold half my shares in the premarket and then dumped on the open. My take from the labor report, which is fraudulent, is that short term the central planners can say anything to keep the bull case for general equities intact. All of these economic reports are semi fraudulent. Their argument is that everything is fine, the economy is purring, and the FED is the master of the universe of the united states of Israel, etc.....what to do.
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trunkmonk trunkmonk 3 weeks ago
But I will point out that as gold does reach upward with slow steps, GDX seems to have a negative pattern. Example: Another words 10 up then 5 down in gold produces 3 up and 4 down in GDX. Another words it’s miners dropping or GDX fund manager incompetence. It’s the latter, I do not see the same drop in the individual miners. CAs closed for now.
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trunkmonk trunkmonk 4 weeks ago
Most of the unlove and hate come from crypto scammers who pretend or portray their pyrite for real gold. Gold is money, crypto is pyramid scams with occasional block chain values mixed in. Once they realize this, and they will when the time is right, gold and silver will pop 20x. All roads lead to gold.
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BJ2018 BJ2018 4 weeks ago
Nice good day today
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