Watch For:

FOMC meeting; 4Q Employment Cost Index; S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Prices Index for November; Chicago Business Barometer -- ISM-Chicago Business Survey -- Chicago PMI for January; Conference Board Consumer Confidence for January; earnings from McDonald's, Caterpillar, General Motors, Exxon Mobil, Pfizer, UPS, Mondelez, AMD, Snap

Today's Headlines/Must Reads

- Labor Report to Give Fed Look at Wage Inflation

- Private Equity Taps Insurers' Cash to Speed Up Growth

- Biden Administration Considers Cutting Off Huawei From U.S. Suppliers

- Eurozone Economy Outpaced China and U.S. in 2022

- IMF Upgrades Outlook for Global Economy

Follow WSJ markets coverage here .

Opening Call:

Stock futures were lower on Tuesday, ahead of a spate of corporate earnings and the start of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting.

"We doubt that the Fed will deliver a dovish surprise at its meeting, but the imminent end of interest rate hikes is nevertheless positive for risk appetite," HSBC Global Private Banking & Wealth said.

"That said, the main beneficiaries lie outside of the U.S., in emerging markets, where borrowing costs are already declining as Treasury yields have peaked and the dollar is falling."

Stocks in Europe and Asia-Pacific dropped after investors got fresh readings on growth, inflation and manufacturing data.

Stocks to Watch

Harmonic released disappointing fourth-quarter results and first-quarter guidance. Its shares dropped 9% in after-hours trading.

Integer reported a preliminary fourth-quarter profit that came in below expectations. Its stock declined 5% in after-hours trading.

Symbotic posted a surge in revenue in the latest quarter and said demand for its products continues to grow. Shares rose 7% in after-hours trading.


The dollar index hit an 11-day high of 102.5190 in European action, and the currency should perform well in a cautious environment as traders await the Fed decision, ING said.

It said the greenback should be able to continue gains into the meeting, with high-beta currencies remaining main underperformers in the risk-off environment.

"Our that the Fed still has an interest in hanging on to a hawkish rhetoric and pushing back against speculation of an early peak and--above all--rate hikes in 2023. The net result for the dollar may be positive."


Income is finally back in fixed-income thanks to higher yields and coupons, BlackRock Investment Institute said.

Short-term government bonds and investment-grade credit now offer some of the highest yields in the last two decades, it added.

BlackRock's preference for earning income right now is from high-quality fixed income assets as rates rise and stay high.

"Fixed income's appeal remains intact the longer central banks keep rates near their peak."

The lack of duration--or the sensitivity of bond prices to interest rates--in short-term paper also helps preserve income even if yields rise anew, BlackRock said.


Oil prices were 1% lower in Europe as investors market awaited clarity on Chinese demand and Russian supplies.

Russian oil exports continue to show resilience in the face of an impending EU crude products ban set to come into force on Sunday.

"Russian oil continues to flow eastbound, which of course, is great news for central bankers, broader markets, and Brent crude short sellers," SPI Asset Management said.

With China's Lunar New Year holiday having now passed, investors are also looking for clues that the nation's demand for crude is recovering.


Base metals and gold were lower early in the London session, as traders looked ahead to tomorrow's Fed decision on interest rates.

"Financial conditions have loosened and markets have rallied on softer inflation metrics over the past month," Peak Trading Research said.

"Traders expect that Powell will have a hawkish message tomorrow to temper some of this enthusiasm," Peak added, noting that the fall in metals prices today reflects profit taking given the possibility of a pivot from the Fed.


Demand for gold reached its highest level in more than 10 years in 2022 as rising central bank interest rates and worries over the global economy pushed investors toward the precious metal, according to the World Gold Council.

Annual gold demand last year hit 4,741 metric tons - up 18% on year, and the highest annual total since 2011, the WGC l said on Tuesday in a new report.

Read more here .




Spotify Adds Users, Reports Loss After Big Investments in Podcasts

Spotify Technology SA reported strong user growth but another quarterly loss after the company invested extensively to build its podcast business.

The audio giant, which last week laid off employees and reorganized its top brass, said it aims to become a more efficient business this year following an intense period of spending. Spotify's chief content and advertising business officer, Dawn Ostroff, will leave the company. She spearheaded the company's expansion into podcasting, helping acquire studios and ink deals with high-profile figures such as Joe Rogan, Michelle Obama and Kim Kardashian.


Blockbuster Arthritis Drug Humira Faces Competition From First Lower-Price Copycat in U.S.

AbbVie Inc.'s arthritis therapy Humira is set to face its first competition in the U.S. from a near-identical copycat, the end of the exclusive run of what was for years the country's biggest-selling drug.

After two decades of patent protection and more than $135 billion in U.S. sales, Humira will contend with the near-identical version from Amgen Inc. starting Tuesday, Amgen said. Other Humira copycats are due to become available later this year.


Airbnb and Expedia Turn Customer Cash Into Profit, Aided by Rising Interest Rates

Airbnb Inc. and Expedia Group Inc. invest billions of dollars of their customers' money for their own profit. Thanks to rising interest rates, returns on these investments are higher than ever.

The travel sites typically collect money from guests the moment they book. But they only pass it on to hosts or hotels after the guest stay starts, which can be several months later.


UBS Attracts Wealthy Clients to Help Lift Profit

UBS Group AG said wealth clients added new assets at the bank in the fourth quarter, helping it post a better-than-expected net profit.

The Swiss bank made a $1.65 billion quarterly net profit, more than the $1.28 billion analysts expected and up from $1.35 billion a year earlier. Inflows from its wealth customers picked up in the quarter across most regions, lifting the annualized growth above the bank's 5% target, to 7.9%.


Biden Administration Considers Cutting Off Huawei From U.S. Suppliers

WASHINGTON-The Biden administration is considering entirely cutting off Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei Technologies Co. from U.S. suppliers over national-security concerns by tightening export controls targeting the firm, according to people familiar with the matter.

The move-should the administration move forward-would mark the latest salvo in the high-stakes clash between the world's two largest economies as U.S. policy makers seek to counter China's industrial policy they say threatens Western interests.


Samsung Expects Sluggish Demand to Drag On as Profit Slides

SEOUL-Samsung Electronics Co. expects demand for semiconductors and smartphones to remain sluggish as macroeconomic challenges and fears of a recession continue to hurt sales, but it said a recovery could be possible in the second half.

Economic uncertainties are weakening momentum for any short-term rebound in demand for memory chips, Samsung's main cash cow, said Kim Jae-june, executive vice president for global sales and marketing at the company's memory business, in an earnings call on Tuesday.


UniCredit to Hand $5.70 Bln to Shareholders After Record Profit - Update

Italy's UniCredit SpA plans to distribute 5.25 billion euros ($5.70 billion) to shareholders in the coming months, EUR1.5 billion more than in the previous year, after the bank swung to a profit in the fourth quarter and posted revenue well ahead of analysts' forecasts.

The Italian bank said Tuesday that the distribution, subject to supervisory board and shareholder approvals, would consist of a EUR1.91 billion cash dividend and a share buyback of EUR3.34 billion. A first tranche of the buyback worth some EUR2.34 billion will launch once approved by the company's annual general meeting at the end of March, followed by another tranche of around EUR1 billion in the second half of the year.


Alameda Research Sues Bankrupt Crypto Lender Voyager for $446 Million

The managers steering failed crypto hedge fund Alameda Research through chapter 11 have sued Voyager Digital Ltd. for nearly $446 million, alleging it received preferential payments while Sam Bankman-Fried's crypto empire collapsed.

In a lawsuit filed on Monday, Alameda accused Voyager of feeding its customers' money to risky crypto companies without due diligence, which helped fuel the alleged misuse of customer funds that brought down Alameda and its affiliated crypto exchange, FTX.


Shein to Name Ex-SoftBank Executive Claure to Head Latin America Business

SINGAPORE-Shein, one of the world's largest online fashion retailers, is set to appoint Marcelo Claure, a former executive at SoftBank Group Corp., as its Latin America chairman, according to people familiar with the matter.

Mr. Claure also made a personal investment of about $100 million dollars in Shein, the people said.


Labor Report to Give Fed Look at Wage Inflation

Worker-pay and benefits data set for release Tuesday will shed light on whether the Federal Reserve is successfully cooling fast wage growth as officials meet to consider further increases in interest rates.

Other recent data has shown that rapid wage growth has begun to slow, putting less pressure on prices. The Fed has aggressively raised interest rates in the past year with the aim of tamping down on the economy to tame inflation. Central-bank officials are starting a two-day meeting Tuesday.


Private Equity Taps Insurers' Cash to Speed Up Growth

Investment firms that play on the cutting edge of finance are turning to one of the oldest businesses on Wall Street to turbocharge their growth: insurance.

Private-credit fund managers such as Blackstone Inc., Carlyle Group Inc. and Centerbridge Partners are increasingly forming partnerships with insurers, or buying them outright. Call it the merger of slow money and fast money.


IMF Upgrades Outlook for Global Economy as Inflation Eases and China Reopens

WASHINGTON-Resilient demand, easing inflation and China's reopening should allow the global economy to grow a bit faster than previously expected, the International Monetary Fund said.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, released Monday Washington time, the IMF sees the global economy growing 2.9% this year, up from its October projection of 2.7%. The IMF expects growth to accelerate to 3.1.% in 2024, still less than last year's 3.4%.


Further Hefty ECB Interest-Rate Rises Could Follow This Week's Increase - Talking Markets

Further significant interest-rate rises are likely to be on their way after the European Central Bank delivers what is widely expected to be a 50 basis-point increase on Thursday as policymakers focus on reducing high levels of inflation.

The ECB's deposit rate currently stands at 2.0%. A half-percentage-point increase this week would take it to 2.5%.


China's Services, Manufacturing Activity Rebounded Sharply in January

China's official gauges measuring services, manufacturing and construction activity all rebounded sharply in January as the nation recovered quickly from a surge in Covid infections in the wake of a sudden reopening at the end of last year.

China's nonmanufacturing PMI, which covers service and construction activity, rose to 54.4 in January, up sharply from 41.6 in December, the National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday.


Stocks' and Bond Yields' 'Virtuous' Link May Be About to Break

When bond yields have risen recently, stocks have fallen. And vice-versa. That's bound to change as markets worry about economic growth.

Over the past year, the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to just over 3.5% from just under 1.8%. In that time, the S&P 500 is down almost 9%, a loss that was worse a few months ago. The reason for these moves is that the Federal Reserve has been lifting interest rates to cool inflation by reducing demand for goods and services.


Gold in 2022 saw its strongest annual demand in more than a decade, report finds

Annual global gold demand last year reached its highest since 2011, buoyed in part by record demand for the precious metal in the fourth quarter and the strongest gold demand among central banks since 1967, according to a World Gold Council report released Tuesday.

Total global demand climbed 18% to 4,740.7 metric tons in 2022, excluding over-the-counter trading, according to the the Full Year 2022 Gold Demand Trends Report, which marked its 30th anniversary. OTC trading is done between dealers directly, without the oversight of an exchange.


Ukraine Fends Off Russian Assault in the East

KYIV, Ukraine-Ukraine on Tuesday said it had repelled multiple Russian attacks around Bakhmut, as Russian troops pushed to encircle the besieged city and Kyiv stepped up calls for advanced Western weapons.

Ukraine's armed forces, which produce a daily tally of Russian equipment and personnel taken out of action, said Tuesday morning they had killed 850 Russian soldiers in the previous 24 hours.


EU Prepares to Offer Clean Tech Tax Breaks to Compete With U.S. Green Subsidy Push

BRUSSELS-The European Union wants to make it easier for governments to dole out tax breaks and other aid to clean-tech companies, part of a push to counter generous U.S. subsidies that officials worry will draw investment away from Europe.

The European Commission, the bloc's executive body, is set to release a proposal on Wednesday outlining how the EU might relax bloc-wide rules that limit how member countries can subsidize businesses. The plan will also look to set aside money to help European governments with limited fiscal firepower compete for investment.


Blinken Set to Meet Palestinian Leader Abbas as Tensions Flare

RAMALLAH, West Bank-U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on Tuesday to press for calm after a surge in violence in the West Bank and Jerusalem.

"We have a lot on our hands in this moment," Mr. Blinken said Tuesday morning before a meeting with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.


U.S. Pushes for Military Sites in Philippines to Counter China

WASHINGTON-The U.S. is hoping to reach an agreement this week to open as many as four U.S. military sites at Philippine bases in Washington's latest push to expand its strategic footprint across the region to counter threats from China, U.S. officials said.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is meeting later this week with recently elected Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in Manila and hopes to secure the deal, which would rotate groups of U.S. forces to sites in the country, U.S. officials said.


Joe Biden to End Covid-19 Emergency Declarations on May 11, White House Says

President Biden will end a national emergency and public-health emergency declaration for Covid-19 on May 11, the White House said Monday, signaling a shift in the nation's approach to a pandemic that has claimed more than 1.1 million lives in the U.S.

The public-health emergency was first declared in January 2020, under the Trump administration, and has been renewed by 90 days every time it was due to expire. The national health emergency and the public-health emergency are now set to expire on March 1 and April 11, respectively, but the White House said the administration planned to extend the declarations to May 11 and then "end both emergencies on that date."


Australia's Nuclear Safety Agency Joins the Hunt for Missing Radioactive Capsule

ADELAIDE, Australia-Authorities intensified their search for a missing capsule containing radioactive material in Australia's far west, deploying car-mounted detection equipment for the first time as they began to retrace a truck's nearly 900-mile journey across the Outback.

The capsule, which is less than a third of an inch long and contains Cesium-137, is believed to have fallen from a truck somewhere between Rio Tinto PLC's Gudai-Darri mine and Perth, the capital of Western Australia. An initial search using hand-held radiation monitors failed to find the capsule, which was discovered to be missing on Jan. 25, prompting a public health alert.




Canadian Pacific Railway 4Q

Imperial Oil 4Q

Economic Calendar (ET):

0830 Nov GDP

Stocks to Watch:

High Tide 4Q Rev C$108.2M Vs. C$53.9M; FY Rev C$356.8M Vs. C$181.1M; 4Q Loss/Shr C$0.85 Vs. EPS C$0.09; FY Loss/Shr C$1.14 Vs. Loss C$0.84


Teck 2022 Annual Production of Zinc Concentrate Met Company Guidance; 2022 Copper, Refined Zinc, Steelmaking Coal Production Came in Slightly Below Low End of Guidance Ranges; Production Affected by Maintenance Activity, Weather, Plant Outage, Other Issues

Teck Guides for 2023 Copper Production of 390,000-445,000 Tonnes; Guides for 2023 Zinc Production of 645,000-685,000 Tonnes; Guides for 2023 Refined Zinc Production of 270,000-290,000 Tonnes; Guides for 2023 Steelmaking Coal Production of 24.0M-26.0M Tonnes; Continues to Face Inflationary Pressures, Which Have Increased Operating Costs; Inflationary Pressures Expected to Persist Through 2023; Expects Unit Costs for Principal Products to Rise in 2023 Vs 2022


Expected Major Events for Tuesday

04:30/JPN: Dec Preliminary Report on Petroleum Statistics

05:00/JPN: Jan Consumer Confidence Survey

05:00/JPN: Dec Housing Starts

05:00/JPN: Dec Construction Orders

06:30/FRA: Dec Household consumption expenditure in manufactured goods

06:30/FRA: 4Q GDP - first estimate

07:00/GER: Dec Foreign trade price indices

07:00/GER: Dec Retail Trade

07:45/FRA: Dec PPI

07:45/FRA: Jan Provisional CPI

08:55/GER: Jan Labour market statistics (incl unemployment)

09:00/ITA: Dec Unemployment

09:30/UK: 4Q Insolvency statistics

09:30/UK: Dec Bank of England effective interest rates

09:30/UK: Dec Money and Credit - Lending to Individuals, Lending to Businesses, Broad Money and Credit

09:30/UK: Dec Monetary & Financial Statistics

10:00/ITA: 4Q GDP preliminary estimate

13:00/GER: Jan Provisional CPI

13:30/US: 4Q Employment Cost Index

13:30/CAN: Nov GDP

13:55/US: 01/28 Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

14:00/US: Nov U.S. Monthly House Price Index

14:00/US: Nov S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

14:45/US: Jan Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI

15:00/US: Jan Consumer Confidence Index

15:00/US: 4Q U.S. Housing Vacancies

20:00/US: Dec Agricultural Prices

21:30/US: 01/27 API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

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Expected Earnings for Tuesday

A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS,X-SMCA) is expected to report $0.80 for 4Q.

Allegro MicroSystems Inc (ALGM) is expected to report for 3Q.

Camden National (CAC) is expected to report $1.08 for 4Q.

Caterpillar Inc (CAT) is expected to report $3.72 for 4Q.

CommVault (CVLT) is expected to report $0.26 for 3Q.

Corning Inc (GLW) is expected to report for 4Q.

Corvel (CRVL) is expected to report for 3Q.

Dover Corp (DOV) is expected to report for 4Q.

Entegris Inc (ENTG) is expected to report $0.16 for 4Q.

Evoqua Water Technologies Corp (AQUA) is expected to report $0.09 for 1Q.

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) is expected to report for 4Q.

FTI Consulting (FCN) is expected to report $1.32 for 4Q.

General Motors (GM,GMM.U-T) is expected to report for 4Q.

Griffon Corp (GFF) is expected to report $0.86 for 1Q.

Hubbell Inc (HUBB) is expected to report $2.15 for 4Q.

Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO,IMO.T) is expected to report $2.45 for 4Q.

International Paper (IP) is expected to report $0.96 for 4Q.

Kirby Corp (KEX) is expected to report for 4Q.

Lennox International Inc (LII) is expected to report $2.63 for 4Q.

MDC Holdings Inc (MDC) is expected to report $1.52 for 4Q.

MSCI Inc (MSCI) is expected to report for 4Q.

ManpowerGroup (MAN) is expected to report for 4Q.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is expected to report for 4Q.

McDonald's Corp (MCD) is expected to report $2.44 for 4Q.

Moody's Corp (MCO) is expected to report for 4Q.

Mplx Lp (MPLX) is expected to report $0.84 for 4Q.

Mueller Industries (MLI) is expected to report for 4Q.

NVR Inc (NVR) is expected to report $98.88 for 4Q.

New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) is expected to report $0.25 for 4Q.

Oshkosh Corp (OSK) is expected to report $1.82 for 4Q.

Pfizer Inc (PFE) is expected to report $0.83 for 4Q.

Phillips 66 (PSX) is expected to report $4.74 for 4Q.

Pitney-Bowes Inc (PBI) is expected to report $0.08 for 4Q.

Polaris Inc (PII) is expected to report $3.19 for 4Q.

PulteGroup Inc (PHM) is expected to report $2.96 for 4Q.

Qualstar Corp (QBAK) is expected to report for 3Q.

Sysco Corp (SYY) is expected to report $0.83 for 2Q.

United Parcel Service (UPS) is expected to report $3.60 for 4Q.

Utah Medical Products (UTMD) is expected to report for 4Q.

loanDepot Inc (LDI) is expected to report $-0.25 for 4Q.

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*EBR Systems Cut to Hold From Buy by Bell Potter

Axalta Coating Systems Raised to Buy From Hold by Deutsche Bank

Axalta Coating Systems Raised to Buy From Neutral by Citigroup

Azek Cut to Neutral From Buy by B of A Securities

Boot Barn Holdings Cut to Neutral From Outperform by Baird

Celularity Cut to Underweight From Equal-Weight by Morgan Stanley

Colgate-Palmolive Raised to Overweight From Equal-Weight by Morgan Stanley

Cyteir Therapeutics Cut to Neutral From Buy by B of A Securities

Eastern Bankshares Cut to Neutral From Buy by Janney Montgomery Scott

Eastman Chemical Cut to Hold From Buy by Vertical Research

Eastman Chemical Cut to Sector Perform From Sector Outperform by Scotiabank

Edwards Lifesciences Cut to Neutral From Overweight by Piper Sandler

Federal Realty Raised to Buy From Neutral by Compass Point

First Interstate Cut to Market Perform From Outperform by Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Flowserve Raised to Buy From Neutral by B of A Securities

Fortune Brands Cut to Underperform From Neutral by B of A Securities

G1 Therapeutics Raised to Neutral From Underweight by JP Morgan

G1 Therapeutics Shares Rise After JP Morgan Upgrade

General Motors Cut to Hold From Buy by Berenberg

Goodyear Tire Cut to Underperform From Neutral by Exane BNP Paribas

Investors who piled into bitcoin in retirement accounts pay the price -- Financial News

Kemper Corp Raised to Neutral From Underperform by Credit Suisse

Lockheed Martin Raised to Buy From Hold by DZ Bank

Lulu's Fashion Lounge Cut to Sector Weight From Overweight by Keybanc

Okta Raised to Buy From Hold by Stifel

Old Dominion Freight Cut to Underperform From Neutral by Credit Suisse

Regeneron Pharma Raised to Outperform From Market Perform by Cowen & Co.

Saia Cut to Neutral From Outperform by Credit Suisse

Stellar Bancorp Raised to Overweight From Neutral by Piper Sandler

Tanger Factory Outlet Cut to Neutral From Buy by Compass Point

Tesla Raised to Buy From Hold by Berenberg

Varonis Systems Cut to Neutral From Outperform by Baird

This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 31, 2023 06:36 ET (11:36 GMT)

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