Treasury Yields Back Off of Earlier Highs
February 22 2018 - 11:33AM
Dow Jones News
By Akane Otani
Selling of U.S. government bonds eased Thursday, sending yields
to reverse course after they had jumped to fresh multiyear highs
earlier in the week.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was
recently at 2.919%, according to Tradeweb, compared with 2.943%
Wednesday, which was the highest closing level since Jan. 9,
2014.
Long bonds also bounced higher, with the yield on the 30-year
Treasury bond recently at 3.195%, compared with a nearly three-year
high of 3.223% Wednesday.
U.S. stocks and bonds came under pressure late in the trading
session Wednesday after the Federal Reserve released minutes from
its Jan. 30-31 meeting. The minutes, which some investors saw as
striking a more hawkish tone than they had expected, renewed
concerns that a pickup in inflation could push the central bank to
pick up its pace of interest-rate increases -- something that some
investors said had contributed to a wave of selling across global
markets earlier in February.
Yet bonds and stocks both bounced higher Thursday, leading some
analysts to describe Wednesday's selling as a knee-jerk
reaction.
Many investors have remained skeptical about whether recent
signs of inflation, including wage growth and consumer price
increases, signal a broader trend, as opposed to one-time
anomalies. That will make future inflation readings particularly
important for the trajectory of the bond market, investors say.
"A continued spike in inflationary readings is going to be by
far a much bigger driver in yields than supply and issuance," said
Eric Souza, senior portfolio manager at SVB Asset Management.
At the start of last year, for instance, the Labor Department's
readings on consumer prices suggested that, after years of stagnant
growth, inflation was starting to near the Fed's 2% target. Yet
that gauge retreated in the second half of the year, perplexing Fed
officials who had expected strong economic growth and falling
unemployment to help lift prices.
"That's what I'll be watching for: are we setting up for what we
saw last year, or are we going to see a real pickup in the
numbers?" Mr. Souza asked.
Later Thursday, investors will be watching the results of the
Treasury Department's auction of $29 billion worth of seven-year
Treasury notes. Auction results have been mixed as of late, leading
some investors to question whether there will be enough demand to
soak up additional debt as the federal deficit rises and the Fed
pares back its bond purchases.
Various Fed officials are also expected to deliver addresses
Thursday, including Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal
Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and Robert Kaplan, president of the
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Write to Akane Otani at akane.otani@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 22, 2018 11:18 ET (16:18 GMT)
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