By Laurence Norman
When trans-Atlantic tensions are high, the Munich Security
Conference is a stage where they spill into the open.
At the annual event in 2003, arguments over the Iraq war came to
a head when an emotional German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer
confronted U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to insist he
wasn't convinced by the American case for removing Saddam
Hussein.
In 2015, months after Russia's annexation of Crimea, U.S. Sen.
John McCain slammed German Chancellor Angela Merkel for refusing to
send defensive arms to Ukraine, saying that supplies of "blankets
and meals" weren't enough. "Blankets don't do well against Russian
tanks," he said.
Ahead of this year's conference, which starts Friday, strains
have emerged between the U.S. and Europe on matters including
trade, climate change, Middle East peace and the Iranian nuclear
deal.
Relations have been undermined, European diplomats say, by
confrontational statements by President Donald Trump, often on
Twitter, and the absence of some key U.S. diplomats from a number
of unfilled posts.
Old tensions with Washington over European military spending
have sharpened under Mr. Trump, who says members of the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization should be investing more on
defense.
Yet, over a year into the Trump administration, there is
tentative confidence among many European diplomats that the core
trans-Atlantic security partnership is holding.
"The style of the president has surprised a lot of people
but...when I see how NATO discussions are going to reform the
command structures...it demonstrates the stability of democratic
institutions," said Marc Otte, a former top European Union diplomat
who heads Brussels' Egmont Institute think tank.
Unquestionably, there has been discomfort among some European
leaders with the new president's policies. After his election, EU
foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini called an emergency meeting
of foreign ministers to discuss the fallout, a move viewed
critically by some capitals.
In May, after a tense trip by Mr. Trump to NATO where he failed
to explicitly back the alliance's collective security guarantee,
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the days when Europe could
rely on America were "over to a certain extent."
Even U.S. relations with the U.K., traditionally the bridge
between Europe and the U.S., have been marred by public spats.
Yet in some areas, trans-Atlantic cooperation has remained the
norm. The Europeans have backed Washington's pressure campaign
against North Korea, worked with the U.S. against Islamic State and
welcomed the Trump administration occasional assertiveness against
the Assad regime.
U.S. policy toward Russia has hardened over the past year. Far
from seeing a Moscow-Washington rapprochement undercut Europe, EU
diplomats found themselves siding last summer with the White House
to lobby Congress to tone down new sanctions against Moscow that
could have hit European firms.
NATO, once dismissed by Mr. Trump as obsolete, looks steadier.
The alliance has absorbed some of Washington's demands and Mr.
Trump and his top officials have now spelled out clearly that an
attack on one ally remains an attack on all.
Most European countries have responded with increased defense
spending, although only half the alliance is expected to meet the
goal of spending 2% of economic output on the military by 2024.
That places the Trump administration back into a more
traditional dilemma over Europe, said Jan Techau, Director of the
Europe Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United
States.
"You really want to push very hard that your allies do more on
defense and aren't free-riding," he said. "But if you press them
too hard, you lose your credibility as a superpower protector and
signal to the Russians, the Chinese and everybody else that your
security guarantees are vulnerable."
Mr. Trump's nationalist tones have found some allies in Eastern
Europe, especially Poland. France's Emmanuel Macron has deployed an
engagement strategy with Washington, actively seeking to address
U.S. concerns about Iran's regional activities, missile program and
some of the weaknesses in the Iran deal.
Some diplomats are wary of assuming things will gradually return
to business as usual.
Two issues, in particular, could seriously heighten tensions:
Mr. Trump's threats to kill the Iranian nuclear deal in May and any
U.S. move to disrupt trade ties.
European officials have repeatedly warned they see the Iran deal
as a vital economic and strategic interest. Ending it while
diplomatic efforts to raise pressure on Iran are evolving could
"create a fallout on a scale we haven't seen before," Mr. Techau
said.
The trade threats from Washington are a concern in particular
for Berlin, which is worried about threats of punitive tariffs.
Germany also sees Washington's attacks on its economic policies as
an offensive against the EU, which negotiates trade deals for the
bloc, and as a threat to multilateral institutions like the World
Trade Organization, which underpin international rules of the
game.
"Trump wasn't able to go for the grand bargain he wanted to on
Russia but we're only a year into the presidency," said Mark
Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations
think tank. "It's pretty clear he is not aligned with the Europeans
on many of the key issues."
--Julian E. Barnes contributed to this article.
Write to Laurence Norman at laurence.norman@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 15, 2018 12:09 ET (17:09 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2018 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.