What to Know About Fed Vice Chair Candidate Loretta Mester
February 13 2018 - 5:54PM
Dow Jones News
By David Harrison
Loretta Mester, a candidate for the Federal Reserve Board's vice
chair position, has served as Cleveland Fed president since 2014.
Before that, she spent almost her entire career as an economist at
the Philadelphia Fed, rising to the position of executive vice
president and research director. Here are five things to know about
Ms. Mester.
She's Mildly Hawkish and Willing to Dissent
Ms. Mester frequently supports slightly higher interest rates
than many of her colleagues, making her "hawkish" in central-bank
jargon. This year, for instance, Fed officials' median projection
is for three rate increases, while she has said she expects three
or four.
She cast two dissenting votes, in September and November 2016,
against her colleagues' decision to hold the Fed's benchmark
interest rate steady in a very low range of between 0.25% and 0.5%.
In both cases, she wanted to raise the range by a quarter
percentage point.
Last month, however, she voted with other Fed officials to leave
their benchmark rate unchanged in a range between 1.25% and
1.5%.
She Sees Inflation Rising Faster Than Her Colleagues
Fed officials see inflation returning to their 2% target by the
end of 2019. But Ms. Mester expects inflation to accelerate
somewhat faster. In November, she said she projected inflation
moving to 2% this year "but not as early as the first quarter."
She also is willing to reassess the Fed's 2% inflation target,
particularly now that the economy is doing well, although she
hasn't endorsed any specific changes. She has praised the Bank of
Canada's model, which re-examines its inflation target every five
years.
She's Bullish on Growth
Ms. Mester has started raising her expectations for economic
growth in the next year or two in light of the recent tax overhaul
and other Trump administration fiscal policies. She expects the tax
cuts to add between a quarter and a half percentage point to the
economic growth rate this year, but she sees a greater likelihood
that the economy could grow faster than she estimates rather than
slower.
She's Not Worried About Market Wobbles
Ms. Mester said Tuesday she doesn't see the markets' recent
volatility as something to worry about, though a sharper and
longer-lasting drop could change that view. "I expect the economy
will work through this episode of market turbulence, and I have not
changed my outlook," she said.
Yields on longer-termed Treasury bonds have been rising lately,
a sign of increased confidence that the economy will generate
slightly more inflation, she added. "That's not a negative." Her
comments suggest she shares Fed officials' reluctance to intervene
when stock prices take a fall unless it shakes their economic
forecasts.
Don't Expect Her to Endorse a Mathematical Rule
Ms. Mester has said she considers several mathematical formulas
-- such as the Taylor rule -- for determining interest rates. But,
like many of her Fed colleagues, she has been reluctant to commit
the central bank to following a single rule, something many Capitol
Hill Republicans have been pushing for. "I am not advocating
setting policy mechanically according to a simple policy rule; no
rule works well enough across a variety of economic models and
circumstances," she said last month. If she is nominated, the
question could come up in her confirmation hearing.
Write to David Harrison at david.harrison@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 13, 2018 17:39 ET (22:39 GMT)
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