Catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide has announced the
release of significantly updated AIR Earthquake and Typhoon Models
for Japan. The past several years has reaffirmed the vulnerability
of Japan to typhoons and earthquakes and prompted updates to AIR's
Industry Exposure Database, earthquake hazard and both earthquake
and typhoon vulnerability including building, contents and business
interruption damage. These updated models provide insurance and
reinsurance companies with a comprehensive view of risk and account
for insurance policy conditions specific to Japan. AIR Worldwide is
a Verisk (Nasdaq:VRSK) business.
“Ten years ago the M9.0 megathrust Tohoku earthquake became the
most widely instrumented earthquake in history, generating copious
ground motion data, damage observations, and detailed insurance
claims data,” said Dr. Kazuya Fujimura, vice president and managing
director, Verisk. “The Tohoku earthquake not only informed the view
of risk associated with megathrust earthquakes in Japan but also
globally, e.g., the Hikurangi subduction zone in New Zealand and
the Lesser Antilles subduction zone in the Caribbean, where, with
limited historical data, the possibility of mega (M9.0 or larger)
earthquakes cannot be ruled out.”
The AIR Earthquake Model for Japan is a fully stochastic model
that captures the complex seismicity of Japan by generating events
along known crustal faults, along and within subduction zones, and
within different regions and zones with little to no historical
earthquake activity through smoothed background seismicity.
Our updated Japan earthquake model is informed by the
Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP’s) most recent
seismicity model but with modifications to the time-dependent
rupture possibilities (TDRP) estimates for earthquakes on the
Nankai Trough and some crustal faults to better reflect
uncertainties in the HERP 2019 TDRP model and parameters.
In the updated AIR Earthquake Model for Japan, numerically
simulated tsunamis generated by all M>7.0 tsunamigenic
earthquakes from our time-dependent, stochastic earthquake catalog
were used to determine coastal inundation and flow velocities. The
stochastic catalog reflects AIR’s view on time-dependent rupture
probabilities for different sources, including tsunamigenic ones
such as those along the Nankai Trough. Our model incorporates the
latest data sets, including detailed three-dimensional subduction
interface/fault geometries, high-resolution bathymetry/elevation
data with coastal levees, dikes and sea walls, regional tidal
solutions to account for the effect of astronomical tides, and land
use/land cover (LULC) data to capture land friction characteristics
that impact runup extent.
AIR’s updated Japan earthquake model also incorporates insights
into ground motion prediction equations, including the weighting of
two produced after the Tohoku earthquake and three produced before,
to provide more accurate ground motion calculations for megathrust
earthquakes, magnitude saturation, and new magnitude scaling. In
addition, our insights into buildings’ seismic response gained from
damage observations, detailed claims data, and changes to design
and construction practice as it relates to tsunami risk inform our
damage functions. With the updated seismicity and ground motion
modules as well as the latest understanding of the vulnerability of
the built environment, AIR’s model presents the most realistic view
of the earthquake risk in Japan.
“While no model can predict when or if the next large
tsunamigenic earthquake in Japan will occur, using the updated AIR
Earthquake Model for Japan, can help prepare for tsunami losses by
providing a detailed and accurate view of tsunami risk in Japan,
said Dr. Bingming Shen-Tu, vice president of research, AIR
Worldwide.”
“In 2018 and 2019, four powerful typhoons struck Japan,
incurring total insured losses of approximately USD 30 billion from
wind and flood damage,” said Dr. Boyko Dodov, vice president of
research, AIR Worldwide. “As is the case after any major storm or
severe storm season, we have been analyzing and reanalyzing a
plethora of meteorological data, market exposure and company claims
data sets from these and previous historical storms.”
The AIR Typhoon Model for Japan is part of the AIR Northwest
Pacific Basinwide Typhoon Model. Japan’s location in the Pacific
Northwest Basin combined with its unique topography puts it at risk
from typhoon winds, precipitation, and storm surge. The model is a
fully stochastic, event-based model that shares a catalog with
other AIR-modeled countries in the region, including mainland
China, Southeast Asia, and South Korea. The Japan typhoon model
captures the effects of tropical storm and typhoon winds,
precipitation-induced flooding, and storm surge on insured
properties in Japan.
Wind intensity computations are based on a storm’s intensity,
size, location, forward speed, and direction, as well as the
underlying terrain and land use in the region. The effect of
extratropical transitioning is also included to accurately assess
the full impact on properties due to precipitation from a tropical
cyclone. Flood intensity computations are based on total
accumulated precipitation both on-plain and off-plain, soil type,
land use/land cover data, and topography. The model includes
separate damage functions for wind, precipitation-induced flood,
and storm surge perils. Additionally, the model explicitly accounts
for the regional variability in wind vulnerability due to
differences in regional construction practices. The model also
considers the effects of existing flood mitigation measures and
lessons learned from the 2018 and 2019 typhoon season.
The AIR Earthquake and AIR Typhoon Models for Japan are
available in the 2021 releases of Touchstone® and Touchstone Re
catastrophe risk management systems.
About AIR WorldwideAIR Worldwide (AIR) provides
risk modeling solutions that make individuals, businesses, and
society more resilient to extreme events. In 1987, AIR Worldwide
founded the catastrophe modeling industry and today models the risk
from natural catastrophes, terrorism, pandemics, casualty
catastrophes, and cyber incidents. Insurance, reinsurance,
financial, corporate, and government clients rely on AIR’s advanced
science, software, and consulting services for catastrophe risk
management, insurance-linked securities, longevity modeling,
site-specific engineering analyses, and agricultural risk
management. AIR Worldwide, a Verisk (Nasdaq:VRSK) business, is
headquartered in Boston, with additional offices in North America,
Europe, and Asia. For more information, please visit
www.air-worldwide.com.
###
Kevin Long
AIR Worldwide
+1-617-267-6645
klong@air-worldwide.com
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