Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC) Options

Many here seems to forget that RVNC actually has a very successful rollout of RHA product lines. They screwed up the first Daxxify launch but it does not mean they are incompetent fools. Hopefully, the second attempt will bring successes.

Thanks for sharing! So many Daxxify posts every day on social media. Here are some more just from the last day. Galderma's pathetic unscrupulous CosmeticMD shills are going to need to work overtime to hold back the tide.

>>about 30% of their toxin use is Daxxify

That's very high percentage (I assume 15% for my base case), is it not?

The info I am getting from my East Coast KOLs is similar to Boraborak's. They tried it on more than half their toxin patients, and about half of those stayed on it, so about 30% of their toxin use is Daxxify. Their schedules are full so they get few new patients, so in terms of within-practice growth there was not much change in Daxxxify units Q4 to Q1, which amounts to small growth as most other toxins were a bit down Q-over-Q. Growth could have come from new physicians in their practices adopting, and they haven't seen that. They don't have a good explanation for that, other than the launch was a failure, and these doctors are too busy to give it another look until they get new information from sources they trust.

I am puzzled at the current share price. Assuming there is not some Valeant-type mess about to be unveiled, it could reflect that analysts and short sellers get negative info from the channel. Also there is a lot of turnover, as stated in many messages. That said, these doctors like their new reps that they've had since January more than the old ones. I made 3 very substantial purchases at 3.30/3.31 on Thursday, and given that they executed within minutes and without much price movement, there must be a lot of non-retail investors willing to sell or short at these prices. FWIW, I have not seen any of my shares being lent to shorts, which is unlike what happened with Valeant (which I bought after it already was 90% down from its highs).

Plastic Surgeon Beverly Hills | Dr. Daniel Barrett
https://www.drdanielbarrett.com/dr-barrett

Now this is a HUGE deal. Multi millionaire celebrity plastic surgeon pitches Daxi… you would think these people would not only use the product but buy into the stock to own a piece of the pie.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C6PLozoSc2h/?igsh=cHpqMWFzbzZheG5t

Dr. Daniel Barrett

I am seeing many new ads and practices pitching DAXXIFY…
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C6OQOgEuUYh/?igsh=MWNyeThuNHdqNHY2Yg==

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C6Kdl4ivXld/?igsh=Nm1qeGpkeHE0bnZ5

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C59L4ZqI71W/?igsh=cHoycDEwYXRyMmc=

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C6FJIA0gc_e/?igsh=c3dyMDNkcWlpdGFq

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C6M8U38vltb/?igsh=MXN1c3pveWYycDk1dA==

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C6J8LLKgysU/?igsh=MWM3MXJvZmJ3d2I3dQ==

Daxxi practice locator tool for Miami area is now showing 52 locations compared to 26 just yesterday. Whatever they did to gain traction in Miami seems to be working.

Well, thank you for the insight. I didn’t know that! 🤦🏻‍♂️

$280M guidance… of course management will reaffirm at least $280M.

NYT article: Market flooded with fake Botox
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/25/well/live/counterfeit-botox-risks.html?unlocked_article_code=1.nU0.5syV.RaMIYrMIOJG_&smid=url-share

If you really want to know about Revance Therapeutics and Daxxify, no way is better than to do your own research.

New to this board…Can someone tell me, this stock was not 97% higher only because of the Dax product, correct? Am I wrong? Is this company betting the house on this product alone?

thank you for the feedback boraborak. So it sounds like you and your contacts have not tried Daxxify so you have no year over year purchase comparisons?

I too am hearing about multiple sales rep departures (in the 10 to 15% range) and territory reshuffling and that new account growth and growing existing accounts had been slow but hearing that they are starting to gain some traction since the Daxi price cut and rebates this past quarter. The 40K rebates that are expiring this month should have helped to get new patients to try Daxi and for Revance to be able to market directly via text in the future to these 40K new patients. This program should be extended IMO. Even $25 to $50 helps to move the needle and reduce friction points in getting clients to transition to Daxxify.

Another 1500 shares for me.

Would be extreme bullish if RVNC re-affirm their at least 280mm sales guidance given Botox's weakness.

We can all hope. I bet Abbv would love to buyout RVNC even for 4-5 billions as then they will have a better product to push. But obviously, they can't due to competition concern.

1Q24 Botox sales by indications and geography: #msg-174309306.

AbbVie just released Q1 2024 numbers and US Botox was down 4.9% YOY and Juvederm was down 13.9% YOY! And that is with the Botox price increase!!! Take out the price increase and Botox is down 7 to 8%!

Allergan is losing market share in aesthetics! Now we know why so many directors and VPs are leaving Allergan! I would expect to start seeing layoffs and open jobs go unfulfilled! This loss of market share will continue as both Botox and Juvederm are 20 yr old products and patients are migrating to new better products!

Any practice still using only Botox and Juvederm is on a sinking ship! Allergan will continue to raise prices to make up for lost market share and squeeze profits from injectors.

Are you not concerning that your business will be taken away sooner or later by your competitors that offer the new and better product?

Seems rather naive on your part to not trying harder on this as it seems you agreee Daxxify is the best and cost less?

Soma, thank you for taking the time post your informative information.

So owning a few spas verses reading information on IHUB should give them enough information that Daxxify is what they should be offering?

Read that again. You are stating that he/she should run their business based on the information from a message board? 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

How is your Med/Spa or clinic going with toxins?

Honestly your story has always been suspect. You have the information provided here to know that Daxxify is the best toxin when injected properly and can make a practice more money so you should be enthusiastically offering it. You only showed up on this board after Daxxify was approved and have shown at times a complete lack of understanding about toxin injection. You claim to own practices but there's no way to verify that. I can't prove it's false either but frankly I think you're not truthful and have ulterior motives.

Always good posts and info soma. In my circles (and I own practices), I am not seeing adoption of Daxxify. I asked another well known owner in my area what she is seeing and she said:
“ The daxxify buzz kind of died. I haven’t heard or seen anything on the groups good or bad. Revance has “restructured” and let go of some positions recently.”
So….i think it depends who you ask. It’s no secret that their sales force has been upended. And the relationships that take time to build have stalled. I saw something similar a few years ago with the lawsuit against Evolus. Sales staff got turned upside down when they were essentially frozen from doing business. And so it took a long time to rebuild that.
I don’t hear people/patients asking for Daxxify yet either. You can call me some shill for another toxin company but this is the truth. And the things I have said the past couple years have been pretty accurate.
I’m still long some shares around $5.50 FWIW

That explains why Galderma shill and perpetual loser CosmeticMD was working overtime today to tag my posts with clown emojis. The majority of patients who try Daxxify with a skilled injector stick with it. That's bad news for those desperate to maintain the status quo.

The strategy of lowering the price and changing the messaging to acts fast and lasts and the $75 rebate to get injectors and patients motivated to try it appears to be working. What strategic change on price, messaging, rebates, etc would you make? This is not a marketing issue. This is a getting word of mouth out issue and my 800 patients are acting like Daxxify ambassadors in my geography. Do you feel that the product is not gaining traction in well established accounts?

>> Foley is making a good decision!!

Finally. :) All while stock keeps making all time low almost daily.

Ms.Dtox - If you don't mind, where about are u in the org chart? Are you still with the company?

You seems to hate the company or at least its strategy. You have already lost a ton on the stock. Have you tried to raise your concern to management?

Had a discussion today with a friend who has connections with RVNC, Evolus and Galderma. RVNC had so many Daxi promotions in Q1 that the reps from the other companies were complaining about the average price of a vial of Daxi at $240 to $250. The RVNC reps were moving Daxi into new accounts and the competition was upset with the low price!

In retrospect, this is EXACTLY what needs to happen which will motivate new injectors to put Daxi into new faces. The aesthetic patient is looking for the best spend for their dollar and Daxi will give this patient double duration, quick onset and improved skin tone as compared to their normal toxin! RVNC needs to continue these Daxi price promotions for.a few quarters and grow the base of Daxi users! For once, Foley is making a good decision!!

(I don’t see an edit button) I meant to say, there is no effective strategy in place.

Hi think the price change and messaging HAD TO HAPPEN and believe course corrections do not happen quickly when there is an effective strategy in place for Daxxify commercial launch other than what’s already been mentioned.

The current price is so low, any buyout will need sky high premiums. I think many will be upset with a buyout price of 10 bucks

But $10 is 300 premium

Great post soma! In the hands of "authoritative and expert injectors" Daxxify is clearly the best toxin on the market. This of course dovetails with what I've seen on social media and heard from my own contacts. Unskilled/unscrupulous CosmeticMDs/PAs/nurses who "couldn't quite figure it out" or "didn't want to take the time and effort to" figure it out lest they lose their kickbacks have been less enthusiastic about Daxxify. I am not a practice owner myself.

This does not apply to Pharma. Each of the mega pharma companies put aside billions per year (per company) for strategic acquisitions (companies in p2, p3, post approval early stages). It is a cut throat competition to stay ahead of the pack, or become the next PFE, BMY. Now, RVNC is opex heavy, but find 100m in synergies (legal, hr, finance, c suite, hq, etc) and you got yourself a break-even earner purchase and potential future pipeline…

Yes higher rate will reduce demand for speculative stocks. But I just don’t think it’s a significant factor

Yes and no insider buy (maybe in blackout) and no activists interested as well


I still hope to see some 13G or F soon at current valuation

Daxi is best in class and costs similar, if not cheaper, than botox. There is huge growth potential in Aesthetics and Therapeutics markets, and dont forget the RHA fillers AND the new lip flip (no more fish lips??) campaign. My guess wall st lost faith in Mark’s failures, on top of non-existing IR dept. Now what i dont understand is why big pharma (Pfizer failed to acquire Allergan) has not yet bough this co for 2-3B.. every pharma co has huge budgets each year for acquisitions, and with the right leadership this company can be profitable sooner than projections with blockbuster potential… what am i missing?

These big ticket items are much more sensitive to financing rate and inflation.
Guess what, automakers have actually done well despite higher rates and record prices. TSLA is a meme stock so we can leave that out of discussion. There has been a slowdown in growth of EV adoption which is unique to that sector sure but the other EV companies you mentioned are also unprofitable so are suffering the same fate as RIVN and RVNC. Interest rates are impacting the desire to own speculative stocks more than they're impacting the underlying business. This is my last post on this as it's obviously tangential.

It's screwed up because you can't really factor in the shorts. The shorts feed off small bios and small caps when the markets are down or there is no news no updates no positives....the company could put out some kind of PR to calm every body down if the treatment(s) look like they will produce revenues and take market share. Just my take but the shorts can destroy a stock price.

It’s down because EV was hyped up and now people realize EV is not for everyone. R1s and R1j are not cheap, they cost about 70k usd after the recent car. These big ticket items are much more sensitive to financing rate and inflation.

Even Tesla is down 30 ytd

Nio xpev fisker lucid all down even more. So for rivn , its a sector thing

For RVNC, Eols is doing well, Botox sales was growing fine. So it’s not even a sector thing

Yes those who subscribed to the recent secondary already down like 50 percent

Doesn’t look good for Barlays at all

It’s odd. The purpose of the raise was to clear overhang. The stock drops half after the overhang is removed

Like how screw up is that

Why is RIVN down? Because their expenses have grown faster than their revenue. Because they're a newcomer in an industry with established brand heavyweights. Because the market is unsure if they can become profitable before they go bankrupt in a fearful interest rate environment. But if you've been following the story closely you know that their products are excellent—some of the best available—in a business with an increasing TAM. It sounds a lot like another stock we talk about frequently here, which might be why their YTD charts are nearly identical.

I know what u are saying actually but I just disagree that it’s a general market thing. The drop is very specific to RVNC, same for RIVN

As you all know, I am a long time injector of Daxxify since Prevu Dec 2022. I launched conservatively to a small portion of my practice, and since that time, Daxxify has taken over 80% of my own NT business (not including my nurse injectors). I used to be Botox only. This is the biggest revenue shift that I have seen in my practice in 20 years.

I am also seeing gradual adoption of Daxxify from many of my nurse injectors the past 3 quarters and we did over 6 figures of Daxxify purchases (over 400 vials) in Q1 2024. The march $75 rebates did help to get us to buy more Daxxify and to entice clients to try Daxxify. This represents over 500% growth over the Daxxify vials I used in Q12023. Although I am still the largest single injector of Daxxify in my organization, my nurse injectors, as a group, exceeded my total vials injected in Q4 2023 and have continued to grow their percentage of Daxxify used within my company.

Soma, thanks so much for your input. It is very encouraging to RVNC investors as they watch the stock price continue to sink. You should message Ms.Dtox before she sinks further into depression over RVNC as her big losses and tell her not to lose hope as it may yet turn into a gain.

I never said RVNC is down because of interest rates and inflation. Revance is down because they're a loss making company and they've grown expenses faster than revenues. The market has turned extremely negative on companies like that and punished them unduly on days where rates have moved higher. RVNC is essentially priced for bankruptcy at this point, as is RIVN, and many other companies, some of whom will go bankrupt, and many of whom will not and the market will have been wrong about.

Thanks soma2022 for such a valuable posts

If you still think rvnc is down 60 percent ytd mainly because of inflation and interest rate, I think we have to agree to disagree.

RVNC is not even in an highly inflation or rate sensitive sector

RVNC new 52 week low

As you said, RIVN is in a much more capital intensive market. Plus they have to scale up much bigger in order to compete on cost. Currently, their gross profit is still negative. So very different story

One of the offices I am friends with uses approximately 350 vials of Daxi a quarter. This practice was not part of the Daxi Prev program. The doctor does 95% of the toxin injections and there are 3 PA who injected the other 5%. The PAs have not converted patients to Daxi and are still using Botox. The doctor has converted 98% of the patients to Daxi and now has more availability on the schedule since the toxin patients are get more duration. The doctor is also making more profit per day/month using Daxi. Also, this office is now 100% RHA and no longer uses Juvederm.

It took the doctor about 3 months to master the Daxi injection technique. 98% of the patients stay with Daxi and do not go back to Botox.

On another topic, rumor is that both Daxi and RHA achieved their sales numbers in Q1.