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Revance Therapeutics Inc

Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

2.66
-0.21
(-7.32%)
Closed June 23 4:00PM
2.68
0.02
(0.75%)
After Hours: 7:59PM

Calls

StrikeBid PriceAsk PriceLast PriceMidpointChangeChange %VolumeOPEN INTLast Trade
2.500.300.500.450.40-0.15-25.00 %114746/21/2024
5.000.100.050.100.0750.0342.86 %172,5016/21/2024
7.500.030.150.030.090.000.00 %0586-
10.000.200.200.200.200.000.00 %0613-
12.500.050.050.050.050.000.00 %0414-
15.000.120.750.120.4350.000.00 %01-

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Puts

StrikeBid PriceAsk PriceLast PriceMidpointChangeChange %VolumeOPEN INTLast Trade
2.500.100.250.180.1750.0320.00 %1651,5606/21/2024
5.002.202.701.902.450.000.00 %0220-
7.504.705.204.594.950.000.00 %036-
10.007.109.304.958.200.000.00 %07-
12.509.6011.805.2510.700.000.00 %00-
15.0012.1014.300.0013.200.000.00 %00-

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RVNC Discussion

View Posts
go seek go seek 1 day ago
Dr Sedgh on DAXXIFY
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C8ffd9DSJiY/?igsh=NDNlb2lkOGFlY3Ry
👍️0
go seek go seek 1 day ago
RHA Collection- Award Winner
DAXXIFY- Award Winner
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C8cuskKJGvn/?igsh=YmgyeXg5ZTBhcHZk

https://www.instagram.com/p/C8csQdHRw6i/?igsh=Nm40NG5yczJsaXF4
👍️ 1
alertmeipp alertmeipp 1 day ago
Actually last night shortly after market close. RVNC traded strong in the morning. Those worries listed in SA are not news, no need to be a genius to know RVNC dropped 90% for a reason.

Today's drop probably more related to triple witch if we had to find a reason.

But all these are just white noises, the rest of the year sales will do the talk at the end.
👍️ 4
edcoolidge edcoolidge 1 day ago
What was the incorrect information? Can you post a screenshot?
👍️0
usma67korea usma67korea 1 day ago
years ago, i valued SA articles. I suppose there are still few who are authentic and genuine, but SA has become pretty useless at this point. bear articles rarely impact share price (unless illiquid microcap). i doubt it has had much impact on today's drop. Talking about the drop end of day, just seem like capitulation selling when the market is up huge while RVNC refused to participate most of the day.

let's see how Monday goes. If we drop further to hit new lows, then I might drink some whiskey
👍️0
vinmantoo vinmantoo 1 day ago

Edmund Ingham
Investing Group Leader for Seeking Alpha

Edmund Ingram is an idiot!

I saw the title but don't read Seeking Alpha as it isn't exactly a trusted source. I have the same view regardless of what stock they write about.

He wrote incorrect misleading info on purpose! I emailed him in a comment as a reply to his article with the correct info and he deleted my email reply.

Resend the comment on the article but make sure you don't have any confrontational or aggressive comments. If he deletes it again perhaps email whoever runs Seeking Alpha, if anyone
👍️0
Emannow Emannow 1 day ago
Article was published this morning.
👍️ 1
usma67korea usma67korea 1 day ago
when did this come out? yesterday? then why late day crash? i don't get it. article itself is amateurish and would be surprised that it would have this much impact at this price.
👍️0
Emannow Emannow 1 day ago
Revance Therapeutics: Problems Mounting Amid Legal And Financial Woes
Jun. 20, 2024 Revance Therapeutics, Inc. (RVNC) StockABBV, ABBV:CA9 Comments

Edmund Ingham
Investing Group Leader for Seeking Alpha

Edmund Ingram is an idiot! He wrote incorrect misleading info on purpose! I emailed him in a comment as a reply to his article with the correct info and he deleted my email reply. He is short RVNC and Long Evolus...sad that he has this job!

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700249-revance-therapeutics-problems-mounting-amid-legal-and-financial-woes?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection_asset%3Arelated-analysis%7Csection%3Aright_rail%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Cline%3A1%7Cpos%3Aundefined
👍️ 2 💩 1 🤥 1
edcoolidge edcoolidge 2 days ago
Skincare Company Galderma Sees Opportunity in ‘Ozempic Face’

"As such injections go mainstream, one wrinkle Galderma could find is competition. The Swiss company is the No. 2 player globally in the segment behind AbbVie, but the rapid growth of the market has attracted new entrants that could erode its market share, analysts at UBS said in a note."

https://www.wsj.com/business/skincare-company-galderma-sees-opportunity-in-ozempic-face-6f2d6738

👍️0
go seek go seek 2 days ago
New Ad!
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C8cs90IRWbi/?igsh=MXQ1eTA4bHpkbzJpcA==

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C8U0yg3gEfs/?igsh=MWxjb3lmdmMxOHRq
👍️0
go seek go seek 2 days ago
When RVNC moves up… Fast, Lasts, and WOW, a breathtakingly transformation! 🫵 👀!
👍️ 1
alertmeipp alertmeipp 3 days ago
How much your doc charge for daxi vs Botox
🤔 1
usma67korea usma67korea 3 days ago
my wife loves it. 4-5mo for her and she is repeat customer now. and her few Korean friends. i did it once last year. i have been using botox on and off for 10 years.. not an expert, just follow wife's actions. i like it but again, i am no expert. wife seems to think it's better and lasts a 'bit' longer. price isn't that important for her as much as me. korean friends care a lot more about duration than few bucks +/-
👍️ 3
go seek go seek 3 days ago
Scientific mind :) “one of the lucky ones”.
👍️ 1
Kydg Kydg 3 days ago
Daxxify lasts 5 months + for me.
The doctor told me I am one of the lucky ones since most other patients have only 3-4 months. Maybe that is why the sales are not so good.
Not sure how many percentage of patients are like me. Even only 10% still good market share. Daxxify also make my skin glowing and looking 10 years younger.
👍️ 2
go seek go seek 3 days ago
Daxxy Day 24 June!
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C8M02TjJdkb/?igsh=MWNxOGJoZXg5bjJpbA==
👍️0
alertmeipp alertmeipp 5 days ago
I think later this year after the potential suitors seeing more and more positive customers feedback

Then, talks might start

Now the share price vs valuation is just simply too huge, absent huge premium, selling out does not make sense

Even 2 billions buyout probably undervalued the company by a far margin
👍️ 5
go seek go seek 5 days ago
Thank you Emannow. Looking forward to the better days ahead.
👍️0
Emannow Emannow 5 days ago
We are going to wake up one morning and RVNC will be bought! The conditions for purchase are moving in the correct direction!

While global M&A activity had a record year in 2021 in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the sheer number of deals being announced has been tepid for the last two years as high interest rates and inflation make the cost of doing business more expensive. High interest rates have increased borrowing costs and made it more difficult for companies to finance acquisitions, meaning management teams are being more selective with how they allocate capital. However, we’re starting to see inflation cool, with May’s Consumer Price Index coming in lower than expected last Wednesday.2 And as far as interest rates are concerned, both markets and the FOMC expect rates to decline over the next year. The current expectation is for a September rate cut of 25 basis points according to the CME Group FedWatch tool, followed by an additional 25 basis point rate cut at the December meeting.3 If both of these continue to trend lower it should open up the probability of more deal-making towards the end of 2024 and into 2025.
👍️ 3 🤡 1
Emannow Emannow 6 days ago
Per discussions with various injectors, there is a learning curve of about 4 months when switching from a 3 month toxin to Daxi! Allergan’s position to injectors is that using Daxi will lower the annual patient visits and hence net profit to the practice which is 100% a smoke screen! Allegan also offers injectors/practices big discounts on their other aesthetic products for buying Botox. This practice should be illegal, as this is a medical prescription product! Daxi actually increases profit per hour of injectors and saves patients money! Allergan just recently held a high level management meeting to keep morale up and brainstorm ways to stop Daxi from taking Botox market share! Botox is 20 plus years old and losing cosmetic market share every quarter! Botox is the profit center for Allergan, so every 1% market share lost is very painful!

On the therapeutic side, there will be a large wave of MDs who will use Daxi for off label indications because it lasts 16 to 24 weeks. These injections are just starting!!! I have friends who get therapeutic injections and their MDs have told them that they are being switched to Daxi.

The frontalis is an off label indication and can only be discussed by MSLs and injectors doing private training! The key to Daxi is placing the toxin in the middle of the muscle since Daxi does not migrate every where like Botox! Botox must be place slightly above the gabellar muscle so it does not migrate down to other muscles which cause droopy eye. As more and more patients, become aware of Daxi, injectors will be forced to offer Daxi or lose patients to competition.
👍️ 8 💯 3
usma67korea usma67korea 6 days ago
on a positive note, they continue to reiterate 280M sales for 2024. despite weak Q1. and signs of other competitors having slower uptake in Q2.. so how do we make of this quiet confidence?
👍️0
iwfal iwfal 6 days ago
Dog that didn’t bark: on both May 9 end-of-Q1 cc and in June 11 cc, when asked what signs the company is seeing for uptake of product… the answer was only about RHA being strong compared to ‘softness’ seen in Q1.

Second comment: the company still seems entirely unwilling to directly address the fact that figuring out how to dose outside of label (eg Frontalis) is an impediment to uptake. (Its likely their stated intent to only roll out loyalty programs that are practice based are driven by this knowledge (incentivizing patients to go to a new injector would likely be a net negative for Daxy), but they won’t directly address it. And won’t talk about incentives to accelerate this process.)
👍️ 1 👎️ 2 🤡 1
alertmeipp alertmeipp 1 week ago
Volume is low last couple days
Hopefully the heavy selling is behind us

And now we just need some new believers to step up
👍️ 1
JesterJungle1 JesterJungle1 1 week ago
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C8GgAUUMyMg/?igsh=MTFzMTZ0b3Q5aHBlZg==
👍️ 4 😍 2
RVNCfan RVNCfan 1 week ago
Loyalty program and bundling with RHA?
That's exactly what I wanted to see!
👍️ 1
Emannow Emannow 1 week ago
The Tag line.. "Fast, Last and Look" definitely identifies why Daxxify is a superior toxin versus ALL currently available 3 month toxins.

Will be nice to see the New Revance Loyalty Programs and Co-Op Programs which will be rolled out in 2024 Q3 and Q4!
👍️ 5 🤝 1
DewDiligence DewDiligence 2 weeks ago
Re: EU Daxxify opportunity /cell-based potency assay Europe awaiting animal trials green light. No! What Foley stated on the GS webcast is that animal testing is prohibited in certain European countries, and hence RVNC is employing a cell-based potency assay to obviate the need for animal testing.

RVNC’s cell-based potency assay is currently under evaluation by the FDA; once it is cleared by the FDA, RVNC can use this assay to support a Daxxify BLA in Europe.
👍️ 8
Tomdontworry Tomdontworry 2 weeks ago
I take that back. Some markets do t allow animal testing so they have to submit another test.. no animal testing..
👍️ 2
vinmantoo vinmantoo 2 weeks ago
They need animal trials?

Cattle being fattened for market get really nervous about their pending fate so develop frown lines. The ranchers use Botox to smooth out the lines on the faces of the cattle because better looking cattle bring a higher price at the market. 😆
👍️ 1 😂 2
DaveAu DaveAu 2 weeks ago
Europe awaiting animal trials green light.

They need animal trials?
👍️ 1
kld2 kld2 2 weeks ago
appreciate it.
👍️0
biotech_researcher biotech_researcher 2 weeks ago
Just listened to the Goldman interview from this morning and the CEO is focused and has a very comprehensive plan. I’m more convinced than ever he’s the right guy now. His market is so dynamic, and he detailed out how he’s evolving the Revance to challenge the competition.
👍️ 4
Tomdontworry Tomdontworry 2 weeks ago
He reiterated at least 280M for 2024. For 2025 he brought up idea to segment therapeutics revenue, and to report a breakout segment you need at least 10% of revenues coming from that segment. So he is alluding to at least $30M in therapeutics revenue for 2025.. China approval expected this year and early next. Europe awaiting animal trials green light.
👍️ 3
biotech_researcher biotech_researcher 2 weeks ago
That is where RVNC will take market share
👍️0
kld2 kld2 2 weeks ago
anything new? Did he allude to Q2 revenue or how sales are trending?
👍️0
go seek go seek 2 weeks ago
GS Call good! Still guiding to ~$280M for 2024.
👍️ 2
RVNCfan RVNCfan 2 weeks ago
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C8CoqLgNS52/?igsh=azdqODN5M3ZiODli
👍️ 2 💯 1
alertmeipp alertmeipp 2 weeks ago
Well, the average target price is $12.91 based on those revenue and earning forecasts

So which numbers u should use
👍️0
usma67korea usma67korea 2 weeks ago
so company needs to hit 66M or better.. that's how earnings game work... not 64M not 62M.. 66M...
👍️0
alertmeipp alertmeipp 2 weeks ago
66 is avg, low 61 high 71
👍️0
usma67korea usma67korea 2 weeks ago
i see finance yahoo has us at 66M+ for Q2 revenue forecast. is this not right? where could i go for 'official' analyst forecast ?
👍️0
soma2022 soma2022 2 weeks ago
$65M would be a beat on what I believe are lower whisper numbers with weakening consumer spend numbers/higher CC debt/recession fears looming. Remember that last year they had $54.4M in Daxi/RHA Q2 sales, and $3.7M in Opul Service biz revenue which is no longer. So $66M this Q2 would be 21% growth overall for injectables and I am hearing from Allergan and Galderma reps that Q2 filler sales are weak. Hoping RHA comes in relatively strong compared to Allergan/Galderma filler sales. For this reason, I am targeting RHA at $31M and Daxi at $30M (33% y/y revenue growth and 65% y/y Daxi vial unit growth). Q2 2023 was the first full quarter of Daxi commercial launch so we should have a good apples to apples comparison for vial unit growth.
👍️ 3 💯 1
usma67korea usma67korea 2 weeks ago
don't disagree but first, let's hit $66M+ Q2 revenue. we get another miss vs forecast, i don't know where we would be.. sub $2 maybe? really don't want to think about that..
👍️ 2
soma2022 soma2022 2 weeks ago
the 1.75% March 2027 Convertible notes will be refinanced without a problem once they turn profitable and continue to grow revenue.

Institutions need to feel comfortable that no further dilutive raises are coming at current debt levels. If Revance can hit that $80 to $85M revenue target by Q4 and finish the year with over $165M in cash with a cash burn in the $25M range by Q4, and Daxi sales showing solid year/year growth and market share gains, gains in therapeutic and China sales starting to kick in by 2025, then this stock should trade at 4x 2024 sales = $1.1B market cap soon after the Q4 2024 Earnings call in February = $10.50/share.

Current share price has priced in at least a 20 to 40% dilutive raise in 2025 IMO, and I don't see that being the case. I see this as a binary outcome with an action date Feb 2025 or 8 months out.
👍️ 5
alertmeipp alertmeipp 2 weeks ago
If they get to break even 2025 and with a growing profile, they should be able to refinance 230mm in 2026 to avoid dilution if they choose to.

Then 25+ percent growth in 2026, I see them start to generate good cash thereafter. Shares price should be much healthier.

The current share price does not reflect the value
👍️ 1
Tomdontworry Tomdontworry 2 weeks ago
I think the 2027 debt is convertible at $33 so if dumb ceo can figure out a way to bring the share price up then they will either be able to convert, or refinance.
👍️0
valiano valiano 2 weeks ago
Thanks for your post.. Over the next 2.5 years they're due to repay 380m in principal. If they enter 2025 with 190m and burn 40m over the year, that leaves them with a ~230m gap. Granted some of that will be closed by 2026 profitability but they can't raise new debt (negative covenants) and Athyrium declined to extend the third tranche (I'd presume they're not a rush to roll over the existing notes either). Some further dilution is unavoidable imo - the bet would be that SP will skyrocket before that.
👍️ 1 👎️ 2
mrwilson31 mrwilson31 2 weeks ago
Just looked it up. They have about 11 indications as of 2022.

👍️0
usma67korea usma67korea 2 weeks ago
if RVNC hits $60M for Q2 (forecast is for 66M+ which is 13.8% yoy increase only), shares will get hammered again. Q1 is weakest Q in revenue annually, so using Q1 revenue of 51M and to grow 15% QoQ is not quite the estimate I would use. 15% yoy Q2 increase from 2023 would be more suitable target. whether they hit it I don't know but that's how I see it
👍️ 2

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