Irish Eyes Are Smiling
11/30/2004
Its Irish eyes, or the luck of the Irish either way, after two visits to Dublin this past week - the markets seem as jolly too.
With property prices no suggesting higher interest rates, oil a non-story again, the dollar falling so re-balancing US economic problems somewhat we have many reasons to be happy and the market agrees.
This past week British Land, whilst overbought has continued. It moves in cycles, dropping 12-15% off peaks, and we are near a peak, so be careful. Land Securities is a parallel story.
Other great risers: I need to see Xstrata jump above 955p to know it is on an upward course that is likely to last and put a stop loss at about 907p.
As I mentioned in my lecture in Dublin, if you like high dividend plays then you will like some of the utility stocks and banks. Currently Lloyds gives 9% return on every £100 invested based on its most recent dividends (ignoring any capital appreciation or fall). United Utilities is a high yielder and looks set to rise this week based on chart indicators.
As I said on BBC1 Breakfast a couple of weeks ago, the tobacco companies look strong and weve seen that. Whilst some moves for Gallaher to 700p seem likely, even 680p there nevertheless seems strength into the 3-4 month period.
Above 1300p and Anglo-American is a short term buy in my view to 1350p.
Value-Growth
On my value growth criteria which are based on stocks meeting revenue and profit growth and good value based on criteria such as price earnings growth, the following names come up. Remember they are for a 6 month outlook: BHP Billiton, Associated British Foods, and some of last weeks ones in case you missed them BSS Group, Speedy Hire, Dart Group, Vp.
Crazy Small Stock
These are high risk volatile stocks which could move sharply higher or move sharply lower in my view, but will almost certainly not stand still. Names on the radar include 4imprint Group, VEGA, Anglo-Pacific Group, Thorpe.
If youre an ADVFN reader and would like to join me for New Years Eve, this is where I will be: www.puccinosnorth.com and I am happy to talk about the markets. I hope to see you there! Also, if you would like a free multi-media CDROM on Investing Better posted to you then drop me an email with your postal address to alpesh@tradermind.com.
Spreadbetters
Spreadbetters and futures traders often look at hard and soft commodities. Heres my quick take on the action for the week ahead:
- Copper: up (called v right again last week) Keep stops tight.
- $/£: mixed and toppy (called mixed to lower last week)
- Crude Oil: Picked up last week. Looking for some upward moves before down again.
- Dow: Down (called down last week)
- Gold: Mixed to up (called Mixed to Up - right by me last week).
- FTSE 100: Mixed (called down last week)
- Soyabean Oil: Down (called mixed last week)
|