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Alpesh Patel's columns :
11/22/2004	Oil. Oh it's so last month
11/15/2004	Eat my shorts
11/08/2004	Big Rally Big Fall
10/31/2004	Big Week
10/25/2004	Vacuum
10/15/2004	Dip and dive or dip and rise: 4600, 4700�4500.
10/11/2004	Oil making us boil.
09/27/2004	The Trends Re-Appear
09/27/2004	Oil
09/21/2004	No Retail Therapy Here
09/14/2004	Do you feel lucky punk?
08/23/2004	The Market Wants To Move Higher
08/17/2004	August a good swing trader's month
08/06/2004	Where are the jobs?
08/02/2004	August a good swing trader's month
07/26/2004	Takeovers abound
07/19/2004	What does Branson tell us?
07/12/2004	Well valued FTSE?
07/02/2004	Well hello July
06/28/2004	Summer aint bad >>
06/21/2004	The Real Hot Stuff
06/04/2004	Not bad at all
06/01/2004	May was better than April, hows about June then?
05/21/2004	Broader Market View
05/14/2004	Interest Rates or GDP?
04/30/2004	The Run Up To May
04/23/2004	Some Big Picture Views
04/16/2004	Growth Spurt or Splutter
04/13/2004	The interest in Interest rates : beware and prepare.
04/07/2004	Pick a Direction Already
03/26/2004	After Gordon's Words
03/24/2004	Hidden Opportunities
03/10/2004	Hidden Opportunities and Big Momentum
02/26/2004	So Much Uncertainty

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Alpesh Patel – A weekly look at market opportunities and pitfalls

Alpesh B. Patel is one of the UK's best-known traders and financial journalists. He writes a regular column for the Financial Times, has written seven bestselling books on trading, and makes regular television appearances for Bloomberg, Sky Television, Channel 4, The Money Channel, and the BBC.

Summer aint bad

06/28/2004

Many traders like volatile markets, noisy, bouncing, vibrant prices. I know I make the stock market sound like a disco. Actually, I don't like such markets. I like quiet markets. A nice dinner and classical concert type market. Before I explain which stocks catch my eye this week, let me tell you why I like such a market.

A quiet market means my stocks, the ones I like, can trend and move due to factors related solely to the stock and not the market. In trading there is something called 'alpha' and 'beta'. Alpha is beating the market beyond broader market volatility (in simple terms), beta is simply market volatility.

We are trying to capture 'alpha'. And that is why I like quiet markets. I just feel that without background noise, my chosen stocks can move more to do with their own factors, not market factors. Now you might say, 'what does it matter, as long as they move?' True, but then I might as well have an index tracker.

In June there has been great growth - in the UK, there is Cairn, in the US, Yahoo, Apple, Ebay, Research in Motion (the makers of Blackberry).

GUS I mentioned a couple of weeks ago and it is rising, but a little overbought, so watch for falls - should be fine if remaining above 830p. Since 830p is a way from the present price your outlook needs to be such that the upside target of around 950p can be achieved and that would be at 6-8 weeks minimum.

Hilton Group is overbought, my technical indicators show price weakness despite recent rises. A fall below 260p would mean I would be totally bearish.

Shell shows good gains and the momentum seems in place. SAB is similarly overbought but a short-term momentum play of the nature, 'stay long as long as it does not move below the previous day's low'.

On the FTSE 250 - a momentum play is CSR (again, long as long as the price does not move below the previous day's low). FTSE 250 energy companies are in vogue: Tullow Oil, Burren Energy. The former is a momentum play, the latter is looking a bit more questionable for my liking.

Oh, Matalan - doing well. Mr Green would never settle for Matalan if he doesn't get M&S, but someone might - and the price is rising (again overbought, so a short-term momentum play).

Value-Growth

On the value-growth screen I have which shows me which stocks are well-valued and showing growth: Findel, Centrica (if it can stay above 220p), Peacock ( on the way to a wedding this weekend, saw a Peacock open and busy on a Sunday).

Thanks to everyone requesting my new 15 multimedia audio-visual CDROMs on 'How To Invest Better' from the ADVFN bookstore under 'Alpesh' in the search engine.

Crazy Small Stock

Some very small stocks accelerating include: Bioquell, Slingsby, Chapelthorpe.

All pure adrenalin momentum plays - not recommendations but simply 'crazy small stocks which may continue steep rises (or turn and burn) - but they almost certainly won't stand still.

Alpesh B Patel, author of “Alpesh Patel on Stock Futures” available from the ADVFN bookstore.