Yellen Recommends Fed Formalize 'Lower-for-Longer' Guidance on Rates
September 14 2018 - 12:30PM
Dow Jones News
By Nick Timiraos
WASHINGTON -- Former Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen
said central-bank officials should formally adopt a policy they
employed earlier this decade that commits to holding interest rates
lower for longer than they otherwise would when their short-term
benchmark rate is near zero.
The problem of what to do when the Fed runs out of room to cut
rates remains a worry for many policy makers because interest rates
are far lower than they were during comparable periods of low
unemployment and steady economic growth. The risk is that the Fed
will have fewer ways to fight a recession as a result.
Ms. Yellen has maintained a low public profile since leaving the
Fed in February after completing a four-year term as chairwoman,
four years as vice chairwoman and six years as president of the San
Francisco Fed. She spoke Friday at a conference at the Brookings
Institution, where she is a distinguished fellow.
The Fed's benchmark rate is currently in a range between 1.75%
and 2%, after being close to zero for years after the 2008
financial crisis.
Several Fed officials have said the problem of being stuck near
the so-called zero-lower-bound, where interest rates are cut to
near zero, should prompt the Fed to consider changing its policy of
targeting 2% inflation.
Ms. Yellen's proposal is less revolutionary and more
evolutionary.
While other approaches "deserve study and debate," Ms. Yellen
said she sees "considerable disadvantages with each of them."
The approach of committing to "lower-for-longer" interest rates
after a spell at the zero-lower-bound is more practical, Ms. Yellen
said. It would formalize a policy the Fed employed during her terms
as vice chairwoman and chairwoman.
The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee "could explicitly
endorse that the committee will set short-term rates
'lower-for-longer' than would be called for by standard
monetary-policy rules" when short-term rates have already been cut
to zero, Ms. Yellen said.
One advantage of the approach is that it would largely leave in
place the Fed's 2% inflation target, which is "well understood" and
has "contributed considerably to the attainment of good
macroeconomic performance in the U.S.," she said.
Adopting or formalizing the "lower-for-longer" approach now,
before the next recession hits, would make this type of guidance
more credible in a downturn, Ms. Yellen said.
Write to Nick Timiraos at nick.timiraos@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 14, 2018 12:15 ET (16:15 GMT)
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