INV4
1 day ago
Critical Metals: Billion-Dollar Greenland REE Project Amid Westerners' Desire For Green Economy And Weaponisation
Jun. 16, 2025
Summary
• We rate Critical Metals Corp. (CRML) a Buy, driven by its strategic role in Western rare earth independence and electrification and weaponisation trends.
• The Tanbreez project in Greenland offers massive upside, with a $3B NPV and 180% IRR, yet CRML trades at a steep discount to intrinsic value.
• Securing a controlling stake in Tanbreez positions CRML as a key supplier for Western defense and tech, reducing reliance on China.
• Risks include funding needs, potential dilution, and macro headwinds, but upcoming catalysts and geopolitical tailwinds support a bullish outlook.
A Buy Rating for Critical Metals Corp.
In our opinion, a Buy rating is appropriate for NASDAQ-listed shares of Critical Metals Corp. (NASDAQ:CRML). The US company, a subsidiary of European Lithium Limited, researches and develops critical metals such as rare earths, for example, for “electrification,” which the International Energy Agency (IEA) defines as follows:
Electrification means replacing technologies or processes that use fossil fuels, like internal combustion engines and gas boilers, with electrically-powered equivalents, such as electric vehicles or heat pumps.
It is believed that by eliminating the root cause—the burning of fossil fuels—climate change is a phenomenon that we as humanity would properly deal with, and the extreme climate phenomena associated with global warming would be mitigated effectively. The greenhouse effect, which is responsible for global warming – many scientists are convinced they have the cause-and-effect math equation in their pocket – is amplified by carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels. At the same time, a clean and sustainable economy will emerge, but one that is no less prosperous and offers market opportunities as well.
Critical Metals: Useful in West's Strategy In The Rare Earth Metals Industry And Their Various Applications, Especially Weapons
As a US company operating under the umbrella of European Lithium Limited and thus within the broader context of the Atlantic Treaty Organisation, where critical metals are also used in defence, Critical Metals' future growth fits well with the US-led Western strategy. To improve the security of their citizens and businesses from external influences and operate successfully in a greener and more sustainable economy, a restructuring of the international rare earths market is indeed necessary, as we explain ahead.
This strategy aims to sever the umbilical cord that connects the desire of Western economies to become cleaner, more sustainable and safer with the efforts of China in producing and supplying the key metals.
This over-reliance on key metals from a single country, China, raises concerns that even the smallest shock to the Dragon Land's economy could have profound repercussions for Western economies, or parts of them, and that the mere joy of cheap supplies would not be worth the consequences. And/or that the West could miss opportunities elsewhere if it focuses too heavily on China and is not sufficiently diversified. The strategy is therefore to free the entire rare earth element (REE) supply chain – from mining to finished product – from the hegemony of the Chinese REE market, to break it up completely and then reassemble it in a new guise that includes more economies, in a more balanced mix between Western countries and fast-growing economies, and not to be overly dependent on any of these economies, such as China. And about the Westerners' desire to enhance the sense of security of their citizens and businesses, the increasing fragmentation of the global market is forcing their arms industry to source critical metals domestically. The Western economies would not be satisfied and would certainly have to act if they were to rearm against their rivals, but at the same time, they were far too dependent on countries from the same bloc as their rivals to obtain the necessary critical metals. The need to reduce imports of rare earths from these countries outside the Western Territory will provide an immediate boost to rare earth exploration and mining companies in North America and Europe.
New Needs of Westerners Fuel Growth Forecasts for the REE Market
Our assumptions are reflected in various analyses that have backed up their growth forecasts for the rare earth elements market with figures. Among the latest updates is the IMARC Group report titled “Rare Earth Elements Market Size, Share, Trends and Forecast by Application and Region, 2025-2033”. It includes the following forecast along with a chart from the website openpr-dot.com:
The global rare earth elements market size was valued at USD 12.44 Billion in 2024. Looking forward, IMARC Group estimates the market to reach USD 37.06 Billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 12.83% from 2025-2033.
As the global market grows due to the stimulus of new needs in Western economies, favourable momentum is emerging for Western companies, previously obscured by Chinese and Eastern competition, to have a virtual commitment to developing their rare earth resources.
Critical Metals Corp. Hunts For REEs in Greenland: The Tanbreez Rare Earths Project
Critical Metals intends to develop the Tanbreez property in South Greenland and holds a 42% interest in the rare earth deposit.
The property, writes proactiveinvestors-dot-com.au website is among the world's largest rare earth deposits [...] with over 27% heavy rare earth elements essential for high-tech and military technologies.
The Upside Potential
In recent years, Critical Metals acquired an additional 36.45% stake in Tanbreez Mining Greenland to complete a two-stage share offering.
Critical Metals issued 8.4 million shares, valued at US$9.97 each, to Rimbal Pty Ltd., effective at the close of trading on July 23, 2024, bringing its total stake in Tanbreez to nearly 42%.
Potential investors seeking to benefit from the promising prospects of Tanbreez, the world's largest, rare earth deposit, totaling over 28.2 million tonnes of rare earth oxides in 4.7 billion tonnes of material grading over 27% heavy rare earth elements and with potential for further upgrading/expansion, can purchase Critical Metals shares today, at the time of writing, for US$2.03 per share.
The value proposed today by the US stock exchange is almost five times lower (or approximately an 80% discount to) than the value that Rimbal was willing to recognise for each Critical Metals share issued and received in exchange for the Tanbreez stake.
The Upside Potential Is To Be Further Expanded To A Controlling Stake
The company is expanding its holdings and acquiring a controlling stake in Tanbreez for a total investment of up to US$211 million, following the signing of a binding agreement in principle with Rimbal Pty Ltd. on June 9, 2024.
A controlling stake means that interested investors, as shareholders of Critical Metals, will share in the decision-making power granted to Critical Metals under the US$211 million agreement. By holding a total stake often exceeding 50% of the company's voting shares, they can exert control in the shareholder meetings and thus influence the strategic decisions of the entire company.
In reporting on the announcement of the binding agreement, Seeking Alpha highlights:
"Tanbreez is a game-changing rare earth mine for the West, and is a key step towards positioning Critical Metals Corp. as the preeminent critical minerals supplier with a diversified, multi-asset portfolio that spans multiple geographies," Critical Metals ( CRML) CEO and Chairman Tony Sage said.
The investment strategy includes a hefty $211 million financing to accelerate growth from a current 42% stake and secure a controlling stake of a percentage at somewhere just over 50% of the voting shares. Anyone interested in buying Critical Metals shares today can, in our opinion, seize the opportunity to secure a front-row seat to the next round. The company they own, with a market capitalisation of ˜ $210.31 million, would need to raise $211 million to acquire a controlling stake in Tanbreez in South Greenland. This scenario lifts the growth potential amazingly for a Critical Metals shareholder, a company that could be worth at least more than double its current market price, given the value of the deal to secure sufficient voting shares related to the Tanbreez project development decision. Clearly, the upside for Critical Metals' stock price is now in the hands of (positive) future sentiment that may arise among market participants in the US. This trading community is receiving strong messages highlighting the richness of the Tanbreez property. With every vote from U.S. President Trump, known for his desire to buy Greenland to access the country's rare earth resources, market participants are reminded of the enormous value of these treasures hidden in the cold rock of Tanbreez in Greenland compared to the NASDAQ offering. There is a significant suspicion that a strong return in demand for Critical Metals shares listed on the NASDAQ could trigger a rapid price recovery.
The Upside Potential Lies In Tanbreez’ PEA Key Economic Indicators
What we have described so far offers a very fruitful context, as every development at the Tanbreez project in Greenland now causes Critical Metals shares to jump on the NASDAQ. As a result, shares went up by 12.8% on Monday, March 31, 2025, after Seeking Alpha announced that the company had issued an independent preliminary economic assessment of the Tanbreez rare earths project.
Regarding the independent Preliminary Economic Assessment (“PEA”), Globe Newswire, as reported by Seeking Alpha, states:
“The results of the PEA demonstrate that the Tanbreez Project is expected to have a Net Present Value (NPV) of approximately US$3 Billion (approximately US$2.8 Billion to 3.6 Billion at discount rates of 15% and 12.5%, respectively, before tax), with an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of approximately 180%. […].
First, this NPV is a very realistic measure of Tanbreez's value at this stage of drilling activity, as it is the result of a very conservative valuation, and this conclusion is derived from the discount factor applied. Borrowing costs in Western economies are below 4.25–4.50%. Other central banks in the UK, Canada, and the Eurozone have all reduced borrowing costs and are many steps ahead of the Federal Reserve, despite all their interest rate hikes in spring/summer 2022 to curb rising inflation came after not before the Fed. The Fed's key interest rate of 4.25–4.50%, unchanged for the third consecutive meeting through May 2025, provides a benchmark for where the most expensive borrowing is occurring in Western economies. The discount rate used by the PEA to calculate the NPV of the Tanbreez REE Project's future cash flows is anything but an interest rate of 12.5%, or even 15% in the most conservative scenario.
Second, the internal rate of return of 180% is extremely high and underlines that Tanbreez is incredibly financially robust compared to other rare earth resources worldwide.
Results from an updated scoping study are available for American Rare Earths Limited's (OTCQX:ARRNF) (OTCQX:AMRRY)'s Halleck Creek Rare Earths Project in Wyoming.
The company's website states:
The Updated Scoping Study outlines two development scenarios including 3 Million Tonnes Per Annum with a Net Present Value (NPV10%) of US$558 million, Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 24%, Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) of US$456 million and a Payback period of 2.7 years. Gibbs told also shared the second being 6 Million Tonnes Per Annum (Mtpa) Case with a NPV10% of US$1.171 billion, IRR of 28.4%, CAPEX of US$737 million, Payback period of 1.8 years
Comparison With the IRR of Other REE Projects Worldwide
Rainbow Rare Earths Limited's (OTCPK:RBWRF) Phalaborwa project in South Africa has a baseline after-tax internal rate of return of 40%.
Ionic Rare Earths Limited's (OTCPK:IXRRF) Belfast rare earth oxide production facility has an internal rate of return of 43.6%, according to the feasibility study.
Peak Rare Earths Limited's (OTCPK:PKREF) flagship rare earth project is the 42%-owned Ngualla Project in Tanzania. According to the feasibility study, it has a post-tax real internal rate of return of 18.8%.
Mkango Resources Ltd.'s (OTCPK:MKNGF) (MKA:CA)’s Songwe Hill rare earth project in Malawi has an after-tax internal rate of return of 37%, based on a long-term rare earth basket value of US$59.8 per kg of rare earth oxide ("REO"), according to an updated pre-feasibility study.
Sovereign Metals Limited's (OTCQX:SVMLF) Kasiya project in Malawi, Africa, has an after-tax internal rate of return of 36% based on expanded scoping studies.
Third, Critical Metals' Tanbreez project in Greenland has a Net Present Value (“NPV”) of $3 billion, or approximately $28.96 per share, given that Critical Metals Corp.'s NASDAQ-listed CRML stock has ˜ 103.60 million shares outstanding. Before borrowing in the U.S. becomes less costly, the company could finance the development of its project by issuing new common shares, but this financing strategy could result in share dilution. However, objectively speaking, the spread between the NPV of $28.96 and the share price of $2.03 at the time of this writing is enormous. And the second factor that mitigates the risk associated with a higher number of outstanding shares is that this is offset by the potential for additional appreciation of the Tanbreez projects as a result of further drilling activity.
In its report “Critical Metals surges as Greenland project valued at $3B with significant upside potential”, dated March 31, 2025, at 12:19 PM ET, Seeking Alpha highlights the following:
The NPV was calculated based off an initial mineral resource estimate of nearly 45M metric tons of rare earth materials indicated and inferred resources, the company said.
[…]
"As this PEA was only based on a fraction of the total resource potential at Tanbreez, Critical Metals Corp. believes that more drilling can unlock enormous upside potential... and can substantially increase the Tanbreez project's NPV, Sage said.
In addition to the very large discrepancy between the NPV/share and the share price, the completion of the final feasibility study for the Tanbreez project, which the company expects to publish by the end of 2025, is an event that we generally see associated with an increase in the market value of listed stocks in the United States, as market participants are influenced by such news.
In Contrast, The Share Price Has A Very Low Market Value
Critical Metals Corp., listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol “CRML,” traded at a price of $2.03 per share, representing a market capitalisation of $210.31 million, as of this writing.
Source: TradingView
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4795076-critical-metals-billion-dollar-greenland-ree-project-amid-westerners-desire-for-green-economy-and-weaponisation
$CRML
INV4
1 day ago
Critical Metals Corp Secures US$120,000,000 LOI for a 15-Year Term Loan From the US Federal Government Bank (EXIM Bank) for the Development of its Tanbreez Rare Earth Project in Greenland
June 16, 2025
Critical Metals Corp. (Nasdaq: CRML) (“Critical Metals Corp” or the “Company”), a leading critical minerals mining company, today announced that it has received a Letter of Interest from the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM), for a total non-dilutive funding package of $120 million. This funding package from the U.S’s official export credit agency is expected to be used to develop the Tanbreez Project, one of the world’s largest rare earth deposits located in Greenland.
Based on preliminary information submitted by Critical Metals Corp for the Tanbreez Project, EXIM will consider financing up to $120 million of the project’s costs with a repayment term of 15 years under EXIM’s new Supply Chain Resiliency Initiative (SCRI). The amount of funding is expected to be sufficient for Critical Metals Corp to complete necessary technical and economic studies, pre-production activities, and begin mining at the Tanbreez Project.
The Company expects that the Tanbreez Project will require $290 million in capital expenditure to bring it to initial commercial production. In its initial commercial production phase, the Company expects that the Tanbreez Project will be capable of producing up to 85,000 metric tons of rare earth material annually.
“This is a tremendous milestone for Critical Metals Corp which highlights to the rare earths supply chain, Western Governments and investors that Tanbreez is a world-class asset that will provide mission-critical rare earth metals to counter China’s continued dominance,” said Tony Sage, CEO and Chairman of Critical Metals Corp. “The Company appreciates the support of EXIM Bank and the US Federal Government as well as our Greenland partners in this major achievement. We are now razor focused to put Tanbreez into production as soon as possible.”
In addition to continuing to progress its verification, de-risk the asset, and prepare for additional pre-production activities, including additional drilling, Critical Metals Corp expects to complete a definitive feasibility study by the end of 2025, which is expected to include important data, such as volumes and timeline estimates. In addition, the Company expects to invest $10 million in exploration expenses in Tanbreez in 2025 to have the option to acquire an additional 50.5% of the asset, bringing its total ownership to 92.5%.
The proposed funding package may be eligible for special consideration under Section 402 of EXIM's 2019 reauthorization, which directs EXIM to take steps to mitigate the competitive impact of export support provided by the People's Republic of China and other covered countries and/or to advance the comparative leadership of the United States in Transformational Export Areas.
The SCRI program is under The China and Transformational Exports Program (CTEP), which is an EXIM program established to help U.S. exporters compete with Chinese companies and ensure U.S. leadership in emerging technologies. Through CTEP, U.S. companies can benefit from reduced fees, extended repayment terms, and other tailored policies.
About Critical Metals Corp.
Critical Metals Corp (Nasdaq: CRML) is a leading mining development company focused on critical metals and minerals, and producing strategic products essential to electrification and next generation technologies for Europe and its western world partners. Its flagship Project, Tanbreez, is one of the world's largest rare earth deposits and is located in Southern Greenland. The deposit is expected to have access to key transportation outlets as the area features year-round direct shipping access via deep water fjords that lead directly to the North Atlantic Ocean.
Another key asset is the Wolfsberg Lithium Project located in Carinthia, 270 km south of Vienna, Austria. The Wolfsberg Lithium Project is the first fully permitted mine in Europe and is strategically located with access to established road and rail infrastructure and is expected to be the next major producer of key lithium products to support the European market. Wolfsberg is well positioned with offtake and downstream partners to become a unique and valuable asset in an expanding geostrategic critical metals portfolio.
With this strategic asset portfolio, Critical Metals Corp is positioned to become a reliable and sustainable supplier of critical minerals essential for defense applications, the clean energy transition, and next-generation technologies in the western world.
For more information, please visit https://www.criticalmetalscorp.com/.
About the Export-Import Bank of the United States
The Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) is the nation’s official export credit agency with the mission of supporting American jobs by facilitating U.S. exports. To advance American competitiveness and assist U.S. businesses as they compete for global sales, EXIM offers financing including export credit insurance, working capital guarantees, loan guarantees, and direct loans. As an independent federal agency, EXIM contributes to U.S. economic growth by supporting tens of thousands of jobs in exporting businesses and their supply chains across the United States. Learn more at www.exim.gov.
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/critical-metals-CRML/stock-news/96247498/critical-metals-corp-secures-us-120-000-000-loi-fo
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