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Igor Kuchma

Three themes of the past week

Jul 24 2023 @ 10:06
Russia has officially withdrawn from the grain agreement, which means the guarantees of safe navigation and the humanitarian maritime corridor in the northwest of the Black Sea have been canceled. However, there is a glimmer of hope as the Kremlin is open to reconsidering the agreement if their demands are met. The President of Turkey […]
 

China Growth Less Than Expected

Jul 17 2023 @ 09:14
The week starts with concerning news from China. The country’s GDP growth in the second quarter was only 6.3%, falling short of the expected 7.1% year-on-year growth. In the first half of the year, GDP increased by 5.5%. The retail sector showed a significant improvement, with a growth rate of 8.2% compared to just 0.7% […]
 

Time Marches On, But Old Problems Persist, And New Ones Emerge

Jul 10 2023 @ 09:10
Although the PCE index, closely watched by the Federal Reserve, fell to 4.2% year-on-year in March from 5% in February, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, came in at 4.6% year-on-year, only 0.1% lower than in February. The situation in the energy markets is also not encouraging: the further rise in oil prices triggered […]
 

US Economy Growing But Debt, Inflation Up

Jul 03 2023 @ 07:11
The US economy grew by 2% in the first quarter. Goldman Sachs forecasts for the second quarter are also encouraging. The Nasdaq index achieved its best first half since 1983, with a cumulative gain of almost 32% as of last Friday. Will Biden be remembered as the best president in US history? Not necessarily. For […]
 

Gold Up After Russia Chaos

Jun 26 2023 @ 07:57
It has been an intense week, especially in geopolitical terms. For starters, the Ukrainian president admitted that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is “slower than expected.” Asked how the conflict could end, Zelenski stated that Kyiv would not sit down at the negotiating table as long as Russian troops remained on the territory. However, according to German […]
 

The ‘Carrot and Stick’

Jun 19 2023 @ 07:04
For the first time since March 2022, the Fed is taking a pause, leaving the possibility of a rate hike at the July meeting: if there is no significant progress in reducing inflation and cooling labor markets or the economy falls into recession, the rate could be 5.5-5.75%. Overall, the macroeconomic picture remains mixed: while […]
 

Recession is here, but markets look ahead

Jun 12 2023 @ 08:55
What ECB members were trying to avoid has come true: the EU has entered a technical recession, with two quarters in negative territory. The reason for the dubious achievement has been the sharp rise in energy prices, cuts in public and household spending, as well as falling inventories. However, the European authorities are not panicking […]
 

Debt Ceiling Disaster Avoided – But Only For Now

Jun 05 2023 @ 06:33
The U.S. government has managed to avoid disaster, but at the same time, it has moved even closer to it. As Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, rightly pointed out, freezing the debt ceiling will not solve the problems of the U.S. economy; it simply pushes them away. Yes, we could forget about it for […]
 

The Disaster That Never Comes

May 30 2023 @ 05:21
The debt ceiling is practically agreed upon, gold prices contract, and the bulls dominate the markets – will the long-awaited correction never come? Not so fast. Despite PacWest Bancorp’s stock recent rebound, the future of regional banks remains in question. The country’s economy is also starting to tempest on one foot… According to Robert Kaplan, […]
 

Key Events in the Week Ahead

May 22 2023 @ 09:52
The negotiations over the U.S. debt ceiling keep breaking sticks and stones… Today, Joe Biden will meet with McCarthy to discuss the issue and try to reach an agreement. Before leaving Japan after the G7 summit, Mr. President expressed his willingness to cut spending and make necessary fiscal adjustments. However, he rejected the latest offer […]
 
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