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Igor Kuchma

Should We Worry About A US Recession?

Oct 11 2023 @ 04:36
On the first day of the new fiscal year in the United States, the country’s national debt rose from $33.167 trillion to $33.442 trillion, setting a new record. Still the markets didn’t seem to care much about the historic event. What did capture their attention was an increase in the┬ánumber of new non-farm jobs┬áto 336,000, […]

Why markets remain under pressure and what to follow next

Sep 25 2023 @ 10:28
Despite the recent pickup in inflation, driven primarily by rising energy prices, the Federal Reserve chose to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged within the 5.25-5.5% range. However, the markets still went down. Jerome Powell’s “hawkish” speech, in which he stressed that the pause in interest rate hikes does not signal the end of the […]

The week ahead: Major topics to follow

Sep 18 2023 @ 08:43
Looking ahead to this week, the key event in the Northern Hemisphere will be Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting and, more specifically, Jerome Powell’s speech afterward. Although markets have already factored in the expectation that the regulator will maintain its current monetary policy, there is a likelihood that it will hint at possible future actions. […]

What will the Fed do next?

Sep 11 2023 @ 10:17
Positive financial calendar data on business activity in the U.S. services sector was released last week: the ISM non-manufacturing index for August rose to 54.5 points, up from 52.7 points the previous month. As expected, markets reacted negatively: the value of the dollar rose along with US Treasury yields due to concerns about a further […]

Dancing on the grave of the economy

Sep 04 2023 @ 07:43
Last week we received discouraging news from the U.S. economy. First, regarding the labor market, the number of job openings in the country fell in July to its lowest level in 28 months, at 8.827 million, down from 9.165 million the previous month, while unemployment rose to 3.8%. The country’s GDP figures for the second […]

Markets Still Sluggish

Aug 29 2023 @ 04:28
Nvidia’s impressive report didn’t exactly light up the markets: for the week, the S&P 500 index posted a modest 0.58% gain, while the dollar index received a 0.82% boost. This suggests that markets continue to see a bleak outlook for the sector and the economy. This is likely due to concerns about a possible economic […]

Is it time to downgrade Europe's rating?

Aug 21 2023 @ 08:43
Fitch Ratings recently downgraded the US debt rating from AAA to AA+ due to the worsening financial situation in the country, but what about Europe? While there are no clear black swans like a falling commercial real estate market in the US, European companies and citizens are starting to feel the impact of high-interest rates. […]

Markets Depressed

Aug 14 2023 @ 10:04
Markets ended the week on a negative note, dampening initial optimism after inflation rose 3.2% in July, slightly below the 3.3% forecast. But shouldn’t it be the other way around, since positive data portends a Fed policy review? In short, no. First, because of the sharp rise in oil and gasoline prices, prices have actually […]

Trouble On The Horizon

Aug 07 2023 @ 09:01
Goldman Sachs & Co’s upward revision of its year-end forecast for the S&P 500 has opened a can of worms or Pandora’s box, whichever way you want to look. First, Fitch Ratings suddenly realized that all was not well with the U.S. economy, which led to downgrading the country’s rating from AAA to AA+. Next, […]

The Markets Are Bullish

Jul 31 2023 @ 06:23
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to the highest level since 2001, but the economy is growing, and bullish investors dominate the markets entirely. Could it be that the Fed has finally learned from past mistakes and recessions are a thing of the past, opening the way to new all-time highs? While it’s hard to […]
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