Oil Tumbles on Jump in Inventories
October 17 2018 - 4:02PM
Dow Jones News
By Dan Molinski and David Hodari
Oil prices dropped sharply Wednesday as another large increase
in U.S. oil inventories and volatility on Wall Street sparked
concerns that global demand for oil is starting to retreat.
Light, sweet crude for November delivery fell 3% to end at
$69.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as it snapped a
three-session winning streak. Brent crude, the global benchmark,
dropped 1.7% to $80.05 a barrel.
In recent weeks, U.S. oil prices surged to four-year highs above
$76 a barrel due to persistent worries that U.S. oil sanctions on
Iran that officially take effect next month are creating a much
tighter oil market in which supplies are barely enough to satisfy
strong demand.
But a sudden drop in U.S. stock markets last week and additional
losses for much of the trading session Wednesday have begun to
reverse that sentiment for many investors who now wonder if the
global economy is facing a slowdown that could weaken demand for
oil and leave the market oversupplied with crude.
Recent bearish data and reports from influential organizations
such as the International Energy Agency that indicate supplies are
normal despite Iran sanctions have further muddied the waters.
"The oil market is currently in a confusing position. Iran
sanctions create fear of supply disruptions, yet the IEA says the
market is adequately supplied right now," said Rob Haworth, a
senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. "The
ultimate determinant of price will be whether global economic
growth strengthens or begins to decline."
The key factor to oil's drop Wednesday was a bearish weekly
report released by the government's Energy Information
Administration in Washington.
The EIA said stockpiles of crude oil in the U.S. jumped by 6.5
million barrels last week to 416.4 million barrels, the highest
total since late June. It also showed total U.S. inventories of oil
and petroleum products such as gasoline rose to 1.26 billion
barrels, the most in nearly one year.
Analysts were especially surprised by the build in oil
inventories given Hurricane Michael had forced offshore oil
producers in the Gulf of Mexico to halt more than a third of their
oil production for several days last week for safety reasons. That
led to wide speculation that oil inventories would see a
counter-seasonal decline in this week's inventory data.
"Crude is getting clobbered on the back of a third consecutive
chunky build to weekly inventories," said Matt Smith, director of
commodity research at ClipperData. " A tick higher in refining
activity and a drop in production due to hurricane activity in the
Gulf was not enough to halt another climb in stocks -- and a solid
one at that."
Beyond the data, however, analysts are noting a stronger link
between oil prices and stock markets, a sign that investors may be
turning more averse to riskier assets such as oil and other
commodities.
"There's been a recent correlation between stocks and oil
because the sentiment hitting equities markets has been reflecting
concerns over the outlook for global growth," said Ole Hansen, head
of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
Some analysts insist the longer-term view for oil prices is
bullish since as much as 2 million barrels a day of Iranian oil
exports could be removed from the global supply when U.S. sanctions
on the country are applied next month.
Venezuela and Libya also present geopolitical risks to global
oil supply, and even Saudi Arabia's promise to increase its own
production to make up for the shortfall hasn't soothed investors,
according to Harry Tchilinguirian, global head of commodity markets
strategy at BNP Paribas.
"As much as the Saudis may increase production, we're still
going to see accumulated losses, and that will put oil on a bullish
footing," Mr. Tchilinguirian said. "As Saudi Arabia increases
production, spare capacity is still dropping, so you can see why
the market's still sensitive to potential supply shocks."
Riyadh's stated intention to bridge the gap left by Iran has
been further complicated by the diplomatic storm surrounding the
disappearance of dissident Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
Mr. Khashoggi's disappearance has strained U.S.-Saudi ties and
sparked international outrage, but fears that Saudi Arabia could
weaponize oil supply in response to hypothetical U.S. sanctions are
as yet unfounded, Mr. Tchilinguirian said.
Among refined products, gasoline futures for November delivery
dropped 3% to $1.9187 a gallon. Diesel futures fell 1.2%, to
$2.3111 a gallon.
Write to Dan Molinski at Dan.Molinski@wsj.com and David Hodari
at David.Hodari@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 17, 2018 15:47 ET (19:47 GMT)
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