PRECIOUS METALS: Spot Gold Rises Amid Global Growth Jitters
October 04 2011 - 7:55AM
Dow Jones News
Spot gold rose in European trading Tuesday amid safe-haven
buying as investors continued to worry that the European Union debt
crisis and ailing U.S. economic growth could drag down global
economic growth.
Analysts and traders said the yellow metal is beginning to
resume its upward trend as concerns abound that U.S. and EU debt
woes will lower economic growth prospects in those regions and
elsewhere. However, gold prices could still fall if equities remain
weak and investors need to liquidate their assets in order to cover
margin calls, they said.
At 1109 GMT, gold was up 0.5% at $1,668.10 a troy ounce while
the U.K.'s FTSE-100 stock index was down 2.7%.
Financial markets were under renewed strain after finance
ministers from the 17-nation euro area further delayed a decision
on disbursing Greece's next round of aid to November and indicated
private bondholders may have to suffer bigger losses on debt as
part of the second Greek rescue plan approved in July.
A raft of banks and trading agencies have cut their global
economic growth forecasts over the past two days due to concerns
that politicians will fail to coordinate a coherent policy to
tackle the EU debt crisis and U.S. debt woes.
"Given the continued lack of policy direction in Europe, the
short-term risks remain firmly to the downside, with [commodity]
prices likely to remain highly volatile," Credit Suisse said in a
note. Goldman Sachs, Standard and Poors and Fitch Ratings all
downgraded their global economic growth forecasts over the past two
days.
Goldman Sachs said in a report that investors should take long
trading positions in gold.
"We expect gold prices to continue to climb in 2011 given the
current low level of U.S. real interest rates. Further, with our
U.S. economics team now forecasting slower U.S. economic growth in
2011 and 2012, we expect U.S. real interest rates to remain lower
for longer, supporting higher gold prices through 2012."
Goldman Sachs has a 12-month gold forecast of $1,860/oz.
Elsewhere in the precious metals complex, platinum was down 1.1%
at $1,480.25/oz while palladium was up 1.4% at $587.20/oz and
silver was up 1.4% at $30.79/oz.
Credit Suisse said both platinum and palladium will be
influenced by speculative investment flows in the short term but
noted that prices should "move materially higher during 2012" as
economic growth stabilizes and stricter environmental legislation
prompts more demand for auto catalysts used in cars.
-By Alex MacDonald, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)20 7842 9328;
alex.macdonald@dowjones.com (William L. Watts in Frankfurt
contributed to this story.)