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Igor Kuchma

The All-Out Rally Continues

Mar 04 2024 @ 08:40
In the US, inflation data fell in line with expectations, along with a drop in consumer confidence and a slowdown in manufacturing activity. This increased speculation of a rate cut by the Fed in June. Towards the end of the week, the stock market experienced another uptick in optimism, although nothing compared to the frenzy […]

Markets Hit Record Highs, But Not Because Of The Economy

Feb 26 2024 @ 09:55
Nvidia Corp’s excellent earnings report quickly diverted attention away from concerns about worrisome inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s uncertain path to lower interest rates. To know whether the rally will persist, it is essential to remember that, despite AI hype, investors are no longer impulsively buying any AI-associated companies. On the other hand, as […]

Markets do not seem to fear recessions. Why?

Feb 19 2024 @ 09:07
The world’s largest economies still struggle to get off the slippery slope of recession – in fact, the situation is worsening, with more countries joining the list of problematic ones. Germany, which has now had negative GDP for four consecutive quarters, has been joined by the UK and Japan, which have been in the same […]

Is The U.S. Stock Market Becoming A Bubble?

Feb 12 2024 @ 08:19
The commercial real estate market is basically in ashes, regional banks’ paper losses continue to grow, yet Wall Street hits record highs with the S&P 500 breaking through the 5,000-point barrier for the first time in history. Is the US stock market becoming an unsustainable bubble? The first thing to say is that the index […]

United States surrounded by black swans?

Feb 05 2024 @ 08:14
Last week’s discussions focused on the possible re-emergence of a banking crisis in the US due to unexpected weakness in New York Community Bancorp’s quarterly report. In particular, investors were unnerved by fourth-quarter losses due to a sharp increase in loan loss reserves and a dividend cut from 17 cents to 5 cents. Addressing the […]

Will the Fed's change in rhetoric provide long-term momentum?

Jan 29 2024 @ 08:14
This week marks the first FOMC meeting of the year, and investors and traders will be watching for clues as to when a change in monetary policy might occur. It is worth noting that, for now, hopes for a change in March have fallen below 50% due to solid GDP data and as instability in […]

China Is In A Vicious Circle

Jan 22 2024 @ 08:33
While the S&P 500 continues to rise and the overall U.S. economy remains resilient, pessimism about China continues to grow, with Chinese stocks in Hong Kong falling to their lowest level in 19 years. What could account for this disparity? In short, different geopolitical and economic contexts. While business activity continues to hold up in […]

Geopolitical Tensions Could Lead To Higher Oil Prices

Jan 15 2024 @ 08:59
Time passes, but one thing remains the same: the world is getting hotter and hotter, not only in terms of temperature but also in terms of geopolitical tensions. Last week, in addition to new and less-than-optimistic developments in the Red Sea, Ecuador and the capital of Papua New Guinea became the focus of the press. […]

Will the rally be revived?

Jan 08 2024 @ 08:48
The latest ISM and PMI reports and the strength of the labour market have made it clear that the worrying predictions about the US economy are overblown. In other words, the likelihood of a hard landing and recession seems to be ruled out. However, this is not great news for markets, as it increases the […]

The Risks Did Not Materialize

Jan 02 2024 @ 04:55
Headwinds in the form of rising geopolitical tensions did not prevent US inflows in 2023 from breaking all-time records and pushing indices to all-time highs. Against the backdrop of Santa’s rally, stable energy prices and cooling inflation, analysts began to upgrade their equity forecasts for the coming years. Specifically, Yardeni now expects the S&P 500 […]
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