BOSTON, Nov. 13, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Radars are a key
element of the sensor suite in ADAS and autonomous mobility. The
technology is already commercially used, particularly on various
ADAS functions. Its use is set to increase in the short and long
terms. In the short-term, legislation, as well as voluntary safety
commitments, will push the adoption further. In the long term, the
emergence of higher levels of autonomy will increase the radar
content per vehicle, thus having a multiplier effect on the
market.
These are exciting times for radar technology. Many changes are
taking place. Here, we outline some key trends from our recent
report "Radars 2020-2030: Technologies, Future Trends,
Forecasts." This report provides a detailed assessment of the
technology. It considers how radar technology is evolving. It
examines the drivers and trends in frequency worldwide. It assesses
the trends in the choice of the semiconductor technology, as well
as the lithographic node. It analyses the trends in packaging and
also the trends towards higher degrees of function integration
within the chip, e.g., DSP. The report examines and critically
benchmarks low insertion loss materials including ceramic-filled
PTFE, PI/fluoropolymer, LCP, LTCC, and many other materials.
The report also considers how radar performance is improving, in
particular with respect to higher azimuth and elevation resolution.
The report analyzes the developments on the signal processing
side. It discusses how the point cloud of radars is becoming denser
and how methods are emerging to allow radars to detect, classify,
and track many objects in 3D space across all weather and light
conditions. These efforts are at an early stage and can be expected
to dramatically improve as larger manually or semi-automatically
labelled training datasets become available and the fusion
techniques evolve.
Finally, the report identifies and overviews the key innovative
starts-ups and emerging products on the market. It offers an
in-depth review of the ADAS and autonomous mobility markets. In
particular, it offers market forecasts (2020-2040), in unit
numbers, for passenger cars, robotaxis and trucks segmented by
level of autonomy from 1 to 5. It then forecasts radar unit sales
numbers. Lastly, it develops two cost scenarios for radar modules
(SRR/MRR and LRR) and thus two market value projections. To learn
more see "Radars 2020-2030: Technologies, Future Trends,
Forecasts."
Key trends
The semiconductor choice in automotive radars is evolving. First
generation products deployed GaAs. They were at first used as bare
dies mounted directly on boards and wire-bond connected. The next
generation was on SiGe. This allowed higher on-chip
integration of functions. The carrier mobility was high to allow
high-frequency radars even at large lithographic nodes (e.g.,
130nm). Advanced packages were also developed, evolving the
technology from CoB to FOWLP or similar
(fan-out-wafer-level-packaging).
Many are now developing Si CMOS (and SOI) technology. Many
utilize the 40nm technology node, but some are pushing it down to
28nm or lower. The shorter channels support a high frequency
even with a low carrier mobility. The small node, together with
CMOS technology, allows higher integration of functions within the
chip. Currently, the latest generation integrates not only the
transceiver and the chirp generation, but also a microcontroller
and digital signal processing (DSP) unit within the chip itself.
This points the way towards single chip radar solutions. The switch
to silicon technology will also better sustain a cost reduction
path, especially as volumes expand.
The packaging and board technology have also evolved. First
generation devices were composed of multiple dies mounted directly
on the board (CoB) and connected by wire-bonding. These radar
modules also had two separate boards: one for the RF and the other
for digital functions. The packaging has evolved, and now various
forms of wafer-level-packing are employed. The board also evolved
to be hybrid with the top RF layer composed of a special low
insertion loss material such as ceramic-filled PTFE or similar. In
cases where a small antenna array will suffice, antenna-in-package
(AiP) designs are already viable and some have been qualified for
short-range automotive applications.
The choice of low insertion loss materials is critical and
interesting. These materials will need to offer low loss
tangent. Crucially, the dielectric constant and the loss tangent
will need to remain stable against variations in temperature and
frequency. Furthermore, moisture uptake will need to be low and the
material will need to be easy- or with well-known modifications-
processible, e.g., how to make the Cu stick. This study offers a
comprehensive benchmarking of a wide range of materials on the
market including ceramic-filled PTFEs, LCP, PI/fluoropolymers,
ceramics such as LTCC or AlN, glass, etc. To learn more, see the
IDTechEx report, "Radars 2020-2030: Technologies, Future Trends,
Forecasts".
Towards 4D imaging radars
The capability of radar technology will rapidly expand. First,
the antenna arrays are becoming larger. Some start-ups have
designed and demonstrated radar chips able to support 6500 virtual
channels. Such radar may reach 1deg azimuth and 2deg elevation
resolution. This trend would enable rich 4D data points per
frame to be obtained giving precise information on velocity, range,
azimuth and elevation. Therefore, such radars would encroach into
territory currently occupied by lidars although the latter will
likely retain angular resolution and potentially object
classification superiority. Higher data rates will pose interesting
questions as to how much pre-processing will be required prior to
sending the data out of the radar modules. It may, depending on the
second fusion architecture, demand ultra-high speed (Gbps) links
within the vehicle.
Furthermore, this and similar arrangements will enable the
densification of the point cloud. This is key, because the sparse
point cloud of data hinders advanced signal processing and will
make data fusion techniques complex. These limitations have kept
radars limited to detection of object presence as well as object
velocity. They also make it difficult, at times, to distinguish
between stationary and slow-moving objects.
The dense and high-resolution point clouds will enable the
developments of object detection, classification, and tracking
based on radar data. To achieve this, deep learning techniques are
being developed. A major challenge though is the lack of extensive
labelled training radar data. The manual labelling process requires
expert input, and is thus expensive and time consuming. Now though
companies are launching fleets for the capture of radar data in
synch with camera, lidar, and other data, and are developing
semi-automated labelling techniques which rely on late-stage fusion
of data between camera, lidar, radar. Such efforts and techniques
will accelerate the development of training datasets. Currently,
such techniques are not as accurate as other means, but this is a
fast-evolving space to closely watch.
Overall, this is one of the hottest trends. In the future, as
radar technology shifts to smaller nodes, highly integrated
packaged single solutions will emerge. The antenna array size will
substantially expand, thus enabling better azimuth and elevation
resolution, and thereby densifying the point cloud. The deep
learning-based algorithms will also evolve in parallel, enabling
radars to do object detection, classification, and tracking in
3D. In such cases, radars will begin to blur the boundaries
with some lidar technologies whilst retaining the weather and
light-level independence.
As mentioned above, this are exciting times for radars. We
forecast that automotive radars can become a $12Bn market by 2030 in a moderate price erosion
scenario. Note that the market will be, within that time frame,
mainly pushed by ADAS. In the longer term (2030-2040), autonomous
mobility (levels 3, 4, and 5) will drive the market. Here, the
increase in radar content will counteract the emergence of peak car
which we forecast to result from the rise of autonomous
mobility.
To read more, please visit www.IDTechEx.com/Radar. This report
provides a comprehensive view of the technology and market trends.
It develops a comprehensive technology roadmap, examining the
technology at the levels of materials, semiconductor technologies,
packaging techniques, antenna array, and signal processing. It
demonstrates how radar technology can evolve towards becoming a 4D
imaging radar capable of providing a dense 4D point cloud that can
enable object detection, classification, and tracking. The report
examines the latest product innovations. It identifies and reviews
promising start-ups worldwide. The report builds a short- and
long-term forecast model covering the period between 2019 to 2040.
The market- in unit numbers and value- is segmented by the level of
autonomy and by passenger vehicles, shared vehicles, and trucks. In
the first decade, ADAS (level 1 and 2) will be the primary market
drivers whilst in the second decade autonomous vehicles will
be.
To find out more about Electric Vehicle research available from
IDTechEx visit www.IDTechEx.com/research/EV or to connect with
others on this topic, IDTechEx Events is hosting: Electric Vehicles
- Everything is changing, November 20-21
2019, Santa Clara, USA
www.IDTechEx.com/EVUSA
IDTechEx guides your strategic business decisions
through its Research, Consultancy and Event products, helping you
profit from emerging technologies. For more information on IDTechEx
Research and Consultancy contact research@IDTechEx.com or
visit www.IDTechEx.com.
Media Contact:
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Marketing Coordinator
press@IDTechEx.com
+44(0)1223 812300
Related Images
image-source-idtechex.jpg
Image Source: IDTechEx
Showing the evolution of semiconductor technology in automotive
radars. The transition towards silicon-based technologies together
with the advent of smaller lithographic nodes will mean that more
capability can be on chip integrated, paving the way towards
single-chip solutions able to support MIMO antennas.
image-source-idtechex.jpg
Image Source: IDTechEx
Benchmarking the loss tangent of various laminate and build-up
materials. To learn more including about benchmarking of stability
of loss tangent and the radar market size please visit
www.IDTechEx.com/Radar
image-source-idtechex.jpg
Image Source: IDTechEx
These radar charts compare the status of today's radar with that
which is emerging. To learn more about the technology trends that
underpin this transformation please visit "Radars 2020-2030:
Technologies, Future Trends, Forecasts".
Related Links
Further IDTechEx Research on Electric Vehicles
Electric Vehicles: Everything is Changing | Nov. 20-21, 2019, Santa Clara, USA | IDTechEx Show Connecting Emerging
Technologies
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