Pisd
2 weeks ago
Good writeup: This Wolf Isn't Dead Yet: Initiating Wolfspeed Stock With A Buy
May 27, 2025 10:24 AM ETWolfspeed, Inc. (WOLF) StockNVTS, NVDA, NVDA:CA, WOLF29 Comments
The Techie
1.88K Followers
(7min)
Summary
Wolfspeed, Inc. faces severe financial distress, with bankruptcy rumors and an 78% stock drop, but I believe the worst is priced in.
Gallium nitride technology demand is surging, especially after Nvidia’s recent deal, positioning Wolfspeed’s tech for a potential turnaround.
Despite debt and missed CHIPS Act funding, Wolfspeed’s low valuation and strategic assets make it an attractive acquisition target.
I see a speculative opportunity here: if Wolfspeed secures a bailout or acquisition, the upside could be significant given current oversold levels.
I hereon share my sentiment on Wolfspeed stock and why I see more upside in the near-term.
Large grey wolf looking after rivals and danger in the forest
Onfokus
Investment Thesis
Wolfspeed, Inc. (NYSE:WOLF) went through a rough patch last week and then skyrocketed quite a bit, and I'm here to say it's not too late to get in on the gains. At the start of last week, it was trading at just under $4, but on Tuesday, it took a 73% hit. Investors who picked up shares at $1.05 would've been well rewarded a day later when the stock recovered 77% on Friday. The reason for the selloff was that reports started circulating that the company was preparing to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The bankruptcy report could be out in a couple of weeks.
For those who don't know, Wolfspeed is a U.S.-based semiconductor company specializing in silicon carbide and gallium nitride technologies, similar to Navitas (NVTS), which just recently landed a deal with Nvidia (NVDA). Unlike Navitas, Wolfspeed has gone through rapid cash burn and accumulated significant debt in recent times. However, I think Wolfspeed could be seeing some nice tailwinds coming to the company, as gallium nitride tech is about to be in high demand.
Since the stock has fallen so low recently, down 61% over the past five days, even after Friday's bounce back, I think the odds are still in Wolfspeed's favor, even more so with whispers that Nvidia and other big semiconductor manufacturers are looking to stock up on gallium power semiconductors.
Hard Times Have Hit Wolfspeed
Wolfspeed has been through hard times, which are already priced into the stock. As of May 2025, Wolfspeed is facing significant financial challenges, with many reports indicating that the company is preparing to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy within weeks due to a substantial debt load of approximately $6.5 billion. This kind of debt is crazy high.
To put it in context, the company made $185 million in revenue last quarter. So, where did all this debt come from? Well, they’ve seen a reduction in EV adoption in recent times. Remember, gallium nitride semiconductors are a key part of EV tech. Additionally, they were tipped to receive $750 million in CHIPS Act funding back in October of last year.
However, to receive the funding, Wolfspeed was required to successfully refinance the 2026 convertible notes as well as other convertible notes that are set to mature in 2028 and 2029. This is something they have failed to do and have since not received a penny of the funding.
Year to date, the stock is down substantially, by roughly 78%, while the S&P 500 (SPY) has remained flat, as we can see below. I don't see this stock going any lower; I think it's bottomed out.
Chart
YCharts
Why This Stock May Turn Around
So what makes me so bullish on this stock despite such a depressing 2025 for Wolfspeed? Well, the demand for their semiconductor tech just went up. As mentioned last week, a deal was signed between Navitas and Nvidia for the procurement of gallium nitride and silicon carbide power semiconductors. It's this kind of tech that can handle extremely high voltage supplies in AI data centers. This 800V supply that Nvidia is looking into is expected to substantially lower current levels through copper wires in GPUs. The outcome of this is that Nvidia doesn't need as much copper, roughly 45% less copper. This kind of reduction comes with huge financial savings, as well as less heat being produced as a side effect. This kind of new directional tech could see demand for gallium power processors skyrocket.
With Wolfspeed being valued so low, I think certain players in the datacenter industry are eyeing Wolfspeed for an acquisition. After all, Wolfspeed is an American company, founded almost 40 years ago in North Carolina. It still holds a significant position in the gallium nitride/silicon carbide semiconductor market, with partnerships involving major automotive manufacturers like General Motors and Mercedes-Benz.
Given the company's valuable technology and low share price, Wolfspeed could be seen as an attractive acquisition target. In fact, it is easy to speculate that companies such as Infineon Technologies, which previously attempted to acquire Wolfspeed in 2016, might be looking to revisit the deal. Last month, they announced a 25% workforce cut and closed down a number of 150mm wafer facilities. Instead, they’ve decided to focus more on their 200mm chips as they’ve seen more demand for this tech on the EV front.
In terms of the debt, Wolfspeed is already looking into potential options for lenders to improve the situation. Along with this, they appointed a couple of new directors on the board, including Paul Walsh and Mark Jensen, both experienced in hard financial transitional times like these.
What's Next & Valuation
Of course, due to the potential bankruptcy and 78% drop-off in stock price, Wolfspeed is grossly undervalued. Forward price to sales ratio is at 0.26 against a sector median of 2.85. Market cap right now is exceptionally small at $200 million, with an RSI of 29 last Thursday, up only slightly to 33 on Friday. The company is still relatively oversold, and with a stock price of just $1.45, it's an attractive stock to take a punt on among a looming demand for gallium power semiconductors. Wolfspeed only needs a good bailout, which I think is coming in the near future. A high debt figure needs to be wiped out before they can capitalize on this increasing demand.
While I can't see Wolfspeed taking care of their financial troubles by themselves, I do think the company's offerings are just too valuable to be left to crumble. The stock closed down 15% on Friday, and at current levels, I think momentum could be building back up, and hence I'm initiating my coverage on Wolfspeed with a buy.
tw0122
8 months ago
$14.24 +26% We howling today .Chips made millionaires Wolfspeed Announces $750M in Proposed Funding from U.S. CHIPS Act and Additional $750M From Investment Group Led By Apollo, Galvanizing Global Leadership in Delivering Next-Generation Silicon Carbide Technology
Source: Business Wire
Highlights:
U.S. Department of Commerce proposes $750 Million in CHIPS and Science Act funding to support Wolfspeed’s North Carolina expansion and catalyze New York expansion
Company secures an additional $750 Million in financing from investment group led by Apollo, The Baupost Group, Fidelity Management & Research Company and the Capital Group
Company also expects to receive approximately $1 Billion in Section 48D cash tax refunds from IRS over the next several years
A total of $2.5 Billion in expected capital will help ensure a clear path to profitability while maintaining critical investments in next-generation technology to support production of silicon carbide
Today, the U.S. Department of Commerce and Wolfspeed (NYSE: WOLF) announced they have signed a non-binding preliminary memorandum of terms (PMT) for up to $750 million in proposed direct funding under the CHIPS and Science Act. In addition, a consortium of investment funds led by Apollo, The Baupost Group, Fidelity Management & Research Company and Capital Group have agreed to provide Wolfspeed an additional $750 million of new financing. Together these investments support Wolfspeed’s long-term growth plans and bolster domestic production of silicon carbide to power clean energy systems underpinning electric vehicles (EVs), artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, battery storage and more. In addition, Wolfspeed expects to receive $1 billion of cash tax refunds from the advanced manufacturing tax credit under the CHIPS and Science Act (section 48D), giving the company, in total, access to up to $2.5 billion of expected capital to support the expansion of silicon carbide manufacturing in the United States.
Wolfspeed is the world’s largest producer of silicon carbide technology, pioneering the technology more than 35 years ago on the campus of North Carolina State University. Since that time, Wolfspeed has become the global leader in silicon carbide technology, one of the fastest growing components of the broader semiconductor industry.
Silicon carbide is a superior alternative to silicon for high power applications – such as EV powertrains, e-mobility, renewable energy systems, battery energy storage systems, and AI and cryptocurrency data centers – that unlocks improved performance and lower system costs.
Notably, the importance of bolstering the domestic production of silicon carbide has been recognized across multiple federal agencies; the Department of Energy denoted it as one of 17 “critical materials” with a high risk of supply disruption that are integral to clean energy technologies, while the Department of Commerce recognizes silicon carbide semiconductors as important to national security.
As the U.S. and the world pursue more efficient and environmentally friendly solutions to meet the world’s ever-increasing need for high-voltage energy products, it is crucial that the U.S. continue to make strategic investments to cement its technological leadership position, while continuing to spur American innovation in critical technologies.
Wolfspeed CEO, Gregg Lowe, said, “To reach this milestone under the U.S. CHIPS and Science Act is an incredible achievement in Wolfspeed’s long-term growth strategy, and we believe today’s announcement is a testament to the market-leading quality of Wolfspeed products and significance of Wolfspeed to broader U.S. economic and national security interests. This support galvanizes our ability to expand domestic manufacturing, accelerate innovation in next-generation semiconductor technology, and meet the increasing global demand for silicon carbide. As a key player in the semiconductor industry, this proposed investment will enable us to solidify our leadership position with a first-of-its-kind 200mm silicon carbide manufacturing footprint in upstate New York and central North Carolina, while contributing to the resilience and competitiveness of the U.S. supply chain. It’s not just about growth for Wolfspeed—it’s about driving technological advancement that powers the future.
“Silicon carbide is already enabling superior energy efficiency across mission-critical industries of the future like electric vehicles, e-mobility, solar and wind energy, industrial power applications, and AI data centers. While EVs have been the driver of silicon carbide adoption thus far, we believe the use cases for our technology are expansive and will only continue to grow as more and more industries find themselves needing to solve for the same power loss, system size, and system cost challenges as automakers,” concluded Lowe.
“Artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and clean energy are all technologies that will define the 21st century, and thanks to proposed investments in companies like Wolfspeed, the Biden-Harris Administration is taking a meaningful step towards reigniting U.S. manufacturing of the chips that underpin these important technologies,” said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. “Because of the Biden-Harris Administration’s CHIPS and Science Act, the United States is building and fortifying our semiconductor manufacturing capabilities to serve our economic and national security interests while creating jobs and economic opportunities for communities across the country.”
“Wolfspeed is leading the pack in bringing semiconductor manufacturing back to America. This major multibillion dollar investment powered by my CHIPS & Science Law will accelerate the ongoing expansion in the Mohawk Valley, helping speed up hiring of hundreds of new good-paying jobs that Wolfspeed is creating in the Mohawk Valley and providing long term work for the Marcy fab to succeed well into the future, further establishing Upstate NY as a global hub for chip manufacturing,” said Senator Chuck Schumer. “From electric vehicles to artificial intelligence, this critical technology relies on the silicon carbide chips that Wolfspeed will manufacture and perfect in the Mohawk Valley. Today’s massive investment will make America’s economy and our national security stronger as Wolfspeed helps us write the next chapter of America’s resurgence as the leader in the semiconductor industry, with the Mohawk Valley as the beating heart.”
“Wolfspeed is a homegrown semiconductor innovator and manufacturer creating great jobs in North Carolina, and it’s important they received this major grant under the CHIPS and Science Act,” said North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper. “Thanks to this landmark legislation from the Biden-Harris Administration and our great workforce, we will continue to see good paying jobs coming to North Carolina.”
“This $750 million federal investment is a testament to Wolfspeed’s unique leadership in silicon carbide semiconductor manufacturing, and I applaud Wolfspeed’s continued commitment to North Carolina,” said Senator Thom Tillis. “I was proud to vote for the CHIPS and Science Act to provide the funding for this investment in North Carolina and to support our economic and national security.”
“North Carolina continues to be a leader in cutting-edge manufacturing that is vital to our country’s national and economic security,” said Senator Ted Budd. “This new Wolfspeed site in Siler City will bring good-paying jobs to the area and is an important first step in making sure America has secure supply chains for critical semi-conductors.”
“We are pleased to expand our investment in Wolfspeed by providing additional capital in support of the company’s build out of its leading silicon carbide capabilities,” said Apollo Partner Joseph Jackson. “We believe Wolfspeed is at the forefront of a critical transformation in sustainable transportation and ensuring that the company has durable capital access to complete its expansion plans will help solidify its leadership in this space. Along with our lending consortium, which includes multiple funds that also own substantial equity stakes in the company, we believe this strategic investment will drive significant long-term value while advancing key tenets of the CHIPS and Science Act.”
These proposed funds, which are expected to be received upon milestone achievements in the coming years, would enable Wolfspeed to complete its multi-billion-dollar greenfield U.S. capacity expansion plan, which consists of the largest and most advanced 200mm silicon carbide footprint in the world. In addition to the proposed direct funding, Wolfspeed intends to benefit from the U.S. Treasury Department Investment Tax Credit of up to 25% of the qualified capital expenditures primarily related to its construction and installation of equipment at The John Palmour Manufacturing Center for Silicon Carbide in Siler City, NC and completion of the Mohawk Valley Fab M-Line West Expansion in Utica, NY.
This multi-billion-dollar investment will bolster Wolfspeed’s balance sheet and will help to fuel significant growth through cash generation and accelerate its long-term profitability goals.
Summary of the PMT
The PMT outlines key terms for a CHIPS incentive award, including the proposed amount and form of the award, and provides that the disbursement of funds will be conditioned upon the achievement of certain operational and construction milestones and other requirements.
The PMT includes an obligation for Wolfspeed to raise an aggregate of $750 million in debt financing over three tranches through the issuance of senior notes under an amended and restated indenture. Wolfspeed and its lenders, led by Apollo funds, have reached an agreement for this additional financing, including $250 million to be available within 10 business days, and have agreed to certain intercreditor terms with the CHIPS Program Office as described in the PMT.
Together, the PMT and the agreement with lenders also requires:
Wolfspeed to undertake further actions with respect to its capital structure, including (a) restructuring or refinancing its outstanding 2026, 2028 and 2029 convertible notes at specified intervals prior to their respective maturity dates, (b) deferring a total of $120 million in cash interest payments due prior to June 30, 2025 under an unsecured customer refundable deposit agreement, and (c) raising up to $300 million of additional capital from non-debt sources over the next 12 months.
In addition, Wolfspeed has agreed with its lenders to certain revisions in the terms of the senior notes, including revisions to the interest rate applicable to the senior notes, as described in the Form 8-K filed today with Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The PMT provides that the award is subject to due diligence and the negotiation and signing of a definitive direct funding agreement with the Department of Commerce and the negotiation and signing of an intercreditor agreement between the Department of Commerce and the Company’s lenders, which may contain different or additional conditions not contained in the PMT. Additional terms of the PMT were not disclosed.
Wolfspeed Webcast
Wolfspeed will host a webcast call at 8:00 a.m. Eastern time today to review the highlights from today’s announcements. The webcast will be available to the public through a live audio web broadcast via the Internet. For webcast details, visit Wolfspeed's website at investor.wolfspeed.com/events.cfm.