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Alpesh Patel
Alpesh Patel's columns :
12/08/2004Strong Dollar Policy and Other US Macho Nonesense
11/30/2004Irish Eyes Are Smiling
11/22/2004Oil. Oh it's so last month
11/15/2004Eat my shorts
11/08/2004Big Rally Big Fall
10/31/2004Big Week
10/25/2004Vacuum
10/15/2004Dip and dive or dip and rise: 4600, 4700�4500.
10/11/2004Oil making us boil.
09/27/2004The Trends Re-Appear
09/27/2004Oil
09/21/2004No Retail Therapy Here
09/14/2004Do you feel lucky punk?
08/23/2004The Market Wants To Move Higher
08/17/2004August a good swing trader's month
08/06/2004Where are the jobs?
08/02/2004August a good swing trader's month
07/26/2004Takeovers abound
07/19/2004What does Branson tell us? >>
07/12/2004Well valued FTSE?
07/02/2004Well hello July
06/28/2004Summer aint bad
06/21/2004The Real Hot Stuff
06/04/2004Not bad at all
06/01/2004May was better than April, hows about June then?
05/21/2004Broader Market View
05/14/2004Interest Rates or GDP?
04/30/2004The Run Up To May
04/23/2004Some Big Picture Views
04/16/2004Growth Spurt or Splutter
04/13/2004The interest in Interest rates : beware and prepare.
04/07/2004Pick a Direction Already
03/26/2004After Gordon's Words
03/24/2004Hidden Opportunities
03/10/2004Hidden Opportunities and Big Momentum
02/26/2004So Much Uncertainty

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Alpesh Patel – A weekly look at market opportunities and pitfalls
Alpesh B. Patel is one of the UK's best-known traders and financial journalists. He writes a regular column for the Financial Times, has written seven bestselling books on trading, and makes regular television appearances for Bloomberg, Sky Television, Channel 4, The Money Channel, and the BBC.

What does Branson tell us?

07/19/2004

If the rumours are true and Virgin Mobile may pull its IPO because they cannot get the valuation they seek because of recent FTSE falls then Richard should have read this column last week when I said I see the FTSE falling in the week ahead!

More importantly, we can see how much confidence institutional money has in the markets presently. As for Virgin's advisors, clearly they are not short term market forecasters. Did they think it being quiet over summer, investors looking for a bit of excitement would be half asleep at the wheel and just write a hefty cheque?

As I mentioned on BBC2 last week, the market's interest in global growth, especially out of China, sees commodities do well again - Rio Tinto, although overbought on a daily price chart using momentum indicators, is still showing strong backing for its rising trend. £16 has to be the target from the present £14 over the next 2-3 months. However, a stop loss on this one would be a trailing £1 drop.

Xstrata is showing a similar price and technical analysis pattern to Rio Tinto. Antofagasta is showing a more measured rise. Any diversifier considering one mining company, may well consider splitting their investment into all. My only concern is with slow starter Anglo American.

From what's under the land to the land itself - British Land. Overbought again due to a recent rally, but despite rising interest rates the UK's largest land owner in my view is strong as long as it remains above 650p. Any fall below that would suggest to me a more important shift of opinion by the market.

What about the all important consumer? Their confidence affects not just specific stocks, such as Liberty International which has been on fire of late, but also the broader economy. I am definitely of the old fashioned camp, that in this type of economy, you will need to see job cuts before you see spending slow down. Rising interest rates will not do it directly - they will only work through employers. And despite the supposed 'feel good' we're supposed to be having, I do see job cuts. So I believe there is a very serious cap on the FSTE.

It is also why commodities are doing well - it's just that part of the economic cycle.

On other momentum plays, this time FTSE 250 - Greene King has exploded like a shaken can of beer. It should steady now that some froth is removed so I am cautious and a bit hands of until I see moves up again. More interesting is Nothgate in terms of breaking through a new high, increased price momentum and the nature of the price pattern allowing us to put a tight stop loss at around 650p.

Value-Growth

Turning to my value-growth screen - ROK is showing up again - but hat is interesting is not just the value growth elements - ie value of the company based on my proprietary measures and growth based on revenue, profits and other measure I use - but also that on momentum it is picking up sharply and looks a classic candidate to hit 400p and a new 52 week high in 4-6 weeks.

(For ADVFN bookstore users there is a special offer: a free CDROM going over some key trades from the previous month - these CDROMs are free each month to purchasers of the 15 multimedia audio-visual CDROMs on 'How To Invest Better' from the ADVFN bookstore under 'Alpesh' in the search engine. (Although it says 10 on the site, I got carried away and added 5 more!) For everyone buying the full 15 set - just drop me a separate email and the publishers will arrange for signed copies of two of my latest books plus the free CDROMs every 4 weeks, for 12 months, showing audio-visually stock moves over the past month and how they should have been handled professionally.)

Crazy Small Stock

On this we have Marchpole Holdings, Smith (James) Estates, and Havelock Europa.

All pure adrenalin momentum plays - not recommendations but simply 'crazy small stocks which may continue steep rises (or turn and burn) - but they almost certainly won't stand still.


Alpesh B Patel, author of “Alpesh Patel on Stock Futures” available from the ADVFN bookstore.

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