FRANKFURT--The following is a summary of analysts' forecasts for Novartis AG (NVS) first-quarter results, based on a poll of 11 analysts conducted by Dow Jones Newswires (figures in million dollars, EPS in dollar and target price in Swiss francs, according to IFRS). Earnings figures are scheduled to be released April 23.

=== 
              Net sales: 
 
1st Quarter       -total  -Pharma -Diovan -Gleevec -Lucentis 
AVERAGE           12,606    7,218     307    1,033       561 
Prev. Year        14,022    7,807     803    1,097       620 
+/- in %             -10     -7.5     -62     -5.9      -9.5 
 
MEDIAN            12,547    7,140     322    1,036       555 
Maximum           12,925    7,500     337    1,111       640 
Minimum           12,269    6,994     255      956       523 
Amount                 8       11      11       11        11 
 
Baader-Helvea         --    7,140     332    1,015       530 
Barclays          12,269    7,286     274    1,036       544 
Cowen and Company 12,925    7,055     255      965       640 
Credit Suisse         --    7,100     275      970       523 
Deutsche Bank     12,576    7,500     333    1,111       589 
J.P. Morgan       12,918    7,350     336    1,062       557 
Jefferies         12,518    7,127     321      956       534 
Mirabaud              --    7,352     322    1,052       555 
Morgan Stanley    12,791    7,113     333    1,091       557 
UBS               12,331    6,994     264    1,028       536 
Zuercher KB       12,516    7,381     337    1,075       608 
 
 
                        Core      Core         Core 
                   Operating       Net  Net attrib.    Core 
1st Quarter           income    income       profit     EPS 
AVERAGE                3,209     2,850        2,844    1.17 
Prev. Year             3,651     3,212        3,185    1.31 
+/- in %                 -12       -11          -11     -11 
 
MEDIAN                 3,221     2,874        2,850    1.17 
Maximum                3,493     3,024        2,933    1.28 
Minimum                2,960     2,684        2,743    1.10 
Amount                    10         6            4      11 
 
Baader-Helvea             --        --           --    1.28 
Barclays               3,146        --           --    1.15 
Cowen and Company      2,960     2,687           --    1.12 
Credit Suisse          3,093        --        2,743    1.14 
Deutsche Bank          3,493     3,024           --    1.23 
J.P. Morgan            3,246        --           --    1.18 
Jefferies              3,054     2,684           --    1.11 
Mirabaud               3,389     2,959        2,933    1.22 
Morgan Stanley         3,255        --           --    1.10 
UBS                    3,260     2,857        2,833    1.17 
Zuercher Kantonalbank  3,195     2,891        2,866    1.17 
 
 
                    Target price  Rating 
AVERAGE                   105.04  positive 7 
Prev. Quarter              96.42  neutral  7 
+/- in %                    +8.9  negative 0 
 
MEDIAN                    106.00 
Maximum                   115.00 
Minimum                    94.00 
Amount                        11 
 
Baader-Helvea             100.00  Buy 
Barclays                   98.00  Equalweight 
Bryan Garnier             101.40  Neutral 
Cowen and Company         115.00  Outperform 
Credit Suisse             106.00  Outperform 
Deutsche Bank              95.00  Hold 
Independent Research      109.00  Hold 
J.P. Morgan                   --  Overweight 
Jefferies                 115.00  Buy 
Mirabaud                   94.00  Neutral 
Morgan Stanley                --  Equalweight 
Societe Generale          107.00  Hold 
UBS                       115.00  Buy 
Zuercher Kantonalbank         --  Overweight 
=== 

Year-earlier figures are as reported by the company.

DJG/voi 

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