cadillacdave
8 hours ago
Just to set the record straight here. I was not being critical of you or your abilities to chart.
You seem triggered by my response to another poster, who questioned or poked fun of your "prediction", explanation or probability - however you prefer to describe it.
My simple explanation to that poster was not dissimilar to what you stated.
I stated - "The charts are a nice tool, but never really capture the entire story when dealing with an explosive powerhouse like NVDA."
You stated in your lengthy explanation - "NVDA is by nature of what it does (hot AI industry), a high probability of being the exception (rather than the rule).
I see little difference in those statements. Yet you lash out at me making bold assumptions that I don't understand and people always want to be right, and no one is right all the time etc.
Furthermore, you immediately discount what I said "charts are a nice tool..." and draw the false conclusion that I am a critic.
Seems to me like you are concerned about losing your "subscribers", because you made a bad call here, and looking for a scapegoat.
cadillacdave
10 hours ago
I did NOT have a question in that post. It was a statement.
But you did NOT answer the one question I asked in my previous post. A totally reasonable question under the circumstances, as part of your post was ambiguous.
So I will ask it again:
I do question this statement in your post: As such, the bulls have now put themselves in a situation where they are "committed" to making a new all-time high above $974.
Having said all of that, I don't have a doubt that they will fail to do so, given that the industry and the company itself are the hottest thing around."
Your statement seems to be in conflict with what you stated. What are you trying to say here?
It concerns me that you are quick to point out - what you believe I do not understand. I actually understand perfectly well. I simply have my own methods for assigning weight to what works and doesn't.
Charting fails to consider the impact of interest rates, inflation, politics, geo-political events and manipulation, which are all factors that impact the markets and NVDA. As you correctly stated, AI is hot and that also has an impact that is not necessarily accounted for.
Chart Reader
11 hours ago
I do not know if you have read any of the posts I have responded to other people. Nonetheless, I have already answered your question.
Neither I, nor any other person, knows what is going to happen or why. The market is full of people with their own agendas and ways of thinking and any of those can cause things to happen. In addition, even I can make erroneous evaluations. I am not perfect. Nonetheless and having said that, have proven over the years and on countless of previous occasions, that I know much more than most every other Tech analysts in the market.
The information I give, and this is always made clear to my subscribers, is knowledgeable but never perfect (perfection is impossible to everyone). As such, the information I give is always to be taken with the idea that it is simply one additional tool (a good one but not perfect) to use when trading.
I have stated here on several occasions, that my goal (and that of most chart and technical traders) is to make more money than is lost. The idea is not to be right every time, but be right more often than not and risk less than what you are expecting to obtain when doing the trade. In this way, the times when I am wrong, is overcome with the times that I am right, and as such, more money is made than what is lost.
Most people "want" to be right and hate to admit when they are wrong (human nature). My kind of trading approach has to put fear and greed aside and deal with reality and that is that no one can ever be right each and every time.
Does this address and answer your question?
cadillacdave
12 hours ago
You indicated that it would likely trade between a range of $822-$854 for 2-4 months.
I respectfully disagreed with that and it has already broken free from that range. I see earnings at the end of May as a possible cataylst, which could also provide a spike in price.
However, you did state that it could breakout from that range if there was a catalyical event, which I haven't seen this week and it still rose significantly. There is run of the mill news on a daily basis, but nothing I would categorize as a major catalyst that occurred.
Analysts make predictions all of the time. Most have been way off with this stock. They predict a price the stock should attain in the next 12 months, only to be eclipsed in a few days or a week or so.
So hopefully you can understand my trepidations about relying too much on professional opinions, as most have been way off with this stock.
I have my own factors that I weigh when analyzing where a stock will be.
cadillacdave
12 hours ago
Not sure who you are responding to, since you responded to yourself.
You seem to cherry pick my statements. I was very complimentary of your wisdom, skills and experience charting, but you seem to disregard that.
However, I am entitled to my own opinion on the success of charting. As you keep saying it doesn't predict but gives probabilities. In my opinion, charting doesnt work well when applied to penny stocks, thinly traded stocks, or explosive stocks like NVDA, like you said, a hot sector right now.
Those are my opinions and no need for everyone to march in lockstep here as there are many different perspectives. Since it is my $$ I am investing, I trade and invest based off of my own opinions, research and beilefs (which may include charting when I believe it is applicable), and have done quite well.
I do think charting is helpful and appreciate your contributions here. Your explanations are thorough and based on facts, which I also appreciate.
I wasn't poking fun at you since the stock headed in a different direction, than the probabilities you laid out last week. As you stated, it could still come back down. There is a lot of volatility and many factors at play that could easily affect the direction this goes.
I do however question this statement in your post: As such, the bulls have now put themselves in a situation where they are "committed" to making a new all-time high above $974.
Having said all of that, I don't have a doubt that they will fail to do so, given that the industry and the company itself are the hottest thing around."
Your statement seems to be in conflict with what you stated.
Don't get ruffled by what folks say here. You are/were a professional in the field and most of us here are amateurs, with varying skill levels and different abilities.
Good luck to you.
Chart Reader
14 hours ago
Sigh. you truly do not understand and this is the last time I explain this to you. Reading of charts is not about "what is going to happen" but about the probabilities of it happening. Simply stated, it gives you a "view" of what is likely to happen but not a guarantee that it will.
In addition and something I did mention prior, NVDA is by nature of what it does (hot AI industry), a high probability of being the exception (rather than the rule).
Having said that, though NVDA got above the $855 level I mentioned (closed at $877) and did not close the gap below, that has NOT changed the outlook (in a convincing way) for that gap to be filled. In fact, in some ways it has actually increased the chances of that gap being filled.
Let me explain, If the gap below would have been filled, there would be no magnet left for the chart traders to shoot for, meaning that once the gap is filled, the bulls could come back in and buy with confidence.
As a general rule, when a top is made and no negative fundamental change has occurred, that top is generally tested before the selling comes in stronger. If the stock goes above this week's high at 883.31, the bulls will be "committed" to making a new high because if they fail and the stock thereafter goes back down, the retest of the high will be successful and the selling will become even stronger. As such, the bulls have now put themselves in a situation where they are "committed" to making a new all-time high above $974.
Having said all of that, I don't have a doubt that they will fail to do so, given that the industry and the company itself are the hottest thing around.
What I do, even under this situation where the evaluation I gave is evidently wrong, is supply the chart points that are important and that information is always valuable. With the stock having "not done" what the charts suggested, it does mean that if you are a bull, you are now in a position of buying more next week (on a dip), knowing that 1) the probabilities favor the stock going above this week's high and they do favor the stock making a new high. By the same token, it also gives you the knowledge that the bulls are now in a "sink or swim" scenario where they have to make a new high of they will have failed.
Information is knowledge.
Last time that I respond to one of your posts. Evidently, you are a critic and not searching for knowledge can can better your trading understanding.
JJ8
16 hours ago
Me too! That is coming, I think, sooner than just the talk for a long time. I have read Kurzweil some time ago and have had many friendly hot arguments in the larger family... about the pros and cons, etc.
In his groundbreaking book "The Singularity Is Near," published in 2005, Kurzweil made two astonishing predictions: first, that by 2029, AI will surpass human intelligence and master the Turing test, and second, that by 2045, humans will merge with the AI they've created, a phenomenon he terms ''The Singularity".
There will be many robots doing routine work in large numbers. Unemployment will increase and people will have more free time to pursue what they prefer to do with their time. Interesting and exciting times.
PS: The jobs for maintenance of Robots will increase, lol.
Dallas-Cowboys
22 hours ago
Article about auto business that will someday become major contributor
Chinese EV maker Xpeng says partnership with Nvidia unaffected by US trade sanctions
Xpeng said local solutions for car chips have emerged despite not being as advanced as imports, but it would keep its options open with domestic suppliers
As of June last year, Nvidia – which is not allowed to ship its advanced AI chips to China – had about a 52 per cent share of the global navigate-on-autopilot market
Thursday, 25 April 2024, 10:00:PM
Chinese electric vehicle (EV) start-up Xpeng said its partnership with Nvidia has not been affected by tighter US trade sanctions, but it will keep its options open with local suppliers.
“We’re very happy with our collaboration with Nvidia and other silicon partners,” Brian Gu Hong-di, vice-chairman and president of Xpeng Motors, said during a press conference on Thursday on the sidelines of the 2024 Beijing Auto Show.
Gu said local solutions for car chips have emerged despite not being as advanced as imports, adding that Xpeng is keeping its options open with domestic suppliers.
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Although Nvidia’s autonomous driving chips are the predominant hardware for supporting assist-driving and more advanced self-driving capabilities developed by carmakers in China, mainland suppliers are quickly catching up amid the country’s drive for self-reliance in semiconductors, especially given that most auto chips do not require cutting-edge manufacturing technologies.
Nissan CEO to respond to EV rivalry in China with bigger line-up, output targets
As of June last year, Nvidia – which is not allowed to ship its advanced AI chips to China due to US trade sanctions – had about a 52 per cent share of the global navigate-on-autopilot market, signing cooperation agreements with 25 automotive original equipment makers globally, according to data from Gasgoo Institute, a Shanghai-based research company.
Nio’s flagship ET5 and ES7 sedans, Li Auto’s L9 model and Xpeng’s G9 all come equipped with Nvidia’s Orin chips. Auto chips are seen by Washington as a less sensitive area of the semiconductor market when it comes to setting trade sanctions.
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Xpeng’s Gu also said that the firm’s smart-driving capabilities for more complex urban traffic environments outshone its competitors. He said the gap between Xpeng and its competitors in city smart driving is “widening”.
“This year, obviously, we want to leverage AI, leveraging large [language] models,” said Gu.
Xpeng has 2,000 engineers working on autonomous driving technologies, ranging from software and architecture to data optimisation, and 3,000 people employed in generative AI.
It will invest 3.5 billion yuan (US$483 million) this year to develop generative AI technologies, which are sweeping every industry from autos and corporate services to consumer electronics.
In 2022, China sold about 7 million smart passenger vehicles equipped with assisted autonomous driving systems, which translates into a market penetration rate of 35 per cent.
In the first half of 2023, that figure rose to almost 43 per cent, according to data from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
Autonomous driving companies have been struggling to eke out a profit in China due to heavy costs and low revenue from maintaining large robotaxi fleets.
Baidu, which operates a robotaxi fleet in several cities, said its self-driving unit will focus on generating revenue and profits after burning cash for years.
Smaller players such as WeRide and Pony AI have joined bigger carmakers to monetise software services as they continue to operate driverless robotaxis at a loss.
Xpeng’s Gu paints a realistic outlook, saying it will take longer than five years before robotaxis become a “real commercial operation”.
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