By Luciana Magalhaes
SÃO PAULO--Investment bank Goldman Sachs is bullish on the
Netherlands, at least when it comes to soccer.
The bank updated its much-watched forecast for the World Cup
this week, raising the Dutch national team's chances of winning the
tournament to 18.3% from 5.6% in May.
The Dutch have been on winning run. They ended Mexico's hopes of
moving ahead last Sunday, after crushing Spain 5-1 and beating both
Australia and Chile.
But Goldman is still betting on Brazil to win it all. Despite
the Seleção's uneven play, the Wall Street bank gives the hosts and
five-time World Cup champs a 46.4% probability of winning the Cup,
down slightly from 48.5% in May.
Goldman sees Brazil's most likely opponent in the finals to be
the Netherlands, followed closely by Argentina, which according to
the bank has a 17.2% chance of winning the tournament. Germany
comes next, with a 12.1% chance of taking the Cup home.
This is Goldman's fifth report on the World Cup since the 1998
Paris competition. It is also the first without soccer fanatic
economist Jim O'Neill, who pioneered the previous versions.
Mr. O'Neill, who retired from his job as chairman of Goldman's
asset management last year, said in a separate interview to The
Wall Street Journal that he is rooting for Brazil in this World
Cup, even though he believes some other national teams, such as
Germany and the Netherlands, are in better shape.
Goldman Sachs declined to give an interview to comment on its
updated World Cup predictions.
Like everyone else, Goldman Sachs was caught by surprise by the
early departure of some respected teams, including Spain, Italy and
Portugal.
Spain, which astonished fans with an early departure after being
defeated by Chile 2-0, ranked fourth in Goldman's May list with a
9.8% chance to take the Cup home.
"Spain, the reigning World Champions, ranks among the favorites
for success in the 2014 World Cup," Goldman said in its May
report.
Goldman also missed the stunning rise of Costa Rica, which will
face the Netherlands on Saturday in the quarterfinals.
In May, Goldman Sachs gave Costa Rica a 0% chance of winning the
World Cup. Despite the Central American team's surprising success,
Goldman has upped its chance of winning it all to just 0.7%.
Write to Luciana Magalhaes at luciana.magalhaes@wsj.com
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