By Tripp Mickle and Aaron Kuriloff
Apple Inc.'s share price traded above its record closing high
Monday, as investors bet that the 10th-anniversary iPhone expected
later this year will return the world's most valuable company to
renewed momentum after its worst stumble in years.
The stock opened at $133.08 on Monday, which tops the stock's
record close of $133 set in February 2015. Shares recently traded
at $133.71, up 1.2% for the day but still below its all-time
intraday high of $134.54.
That puts Apple's market value about $130 billion ahead of the
No. 2 company, Google parent Alphabet Inc. -- which not long ago
was challenging Apple for the top spot -- and beyond the values of
Exxon Mobil Corp. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. combined.
Major investors, including Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway
Inc., poured into Apple stock when the share price dipped last
year, a period when Apple reported three straight quarters of
profit and revenue declines. Since then, a combination of a new
iPhone, improved sales in China and surging sales of apps and
streaming music subscriptions have buoyed the stock, investors and
analysts said.
Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook helped bolster investor
confidence last month with the announcement of an ambitious goal to
double the company's $24.35 billion services business by 2021. He
also expressed optimism that tax reform later this year would
enable Apple to bring home cash held overseas, which could be used
for mergers and acquisitions.
Still, the biggest driver of investors' renewed enthusiasm is
the iPhone, which is both Apple's blessing and its curse. One of
the most successful consumer products in history, the device is on
track to top $980 billion in sales in the decade since it hit the
market.
The iPhone is now so huge that it propels Apple, accounting for
two-thirds of sales and three-fourths of operating profit -- and
leading to gyrations in the company's stock price alongside
investors' changing views of each new model's prospects for
success.
"Apple is really an iPhone business," said Sean
Stannard-Stockton, chief investment officer at Ensemble Capital
Management, a Burlingame, Calif., wealth-management firm with $500
million in assets; it counts Apple among its largest holdings. He
added, "The next [iPhone] cycle should be strong."
The speculative frenzy that always precedes a new iPhone has
been supercharged in anticipation of the 10th-anniversary release
expected later this year. Analysts in research reports have
predicted the phone will be one of Apple's most revolutionary, with
some suggesting it will come in three sizes instead of the usual
two, with a case made almost entirely of glass and possibly
wireless-charging capability.
At least one of the anniversary phones is expected to have an
OLED screen, technology that would make the device thinner and
lighter. The display, on top of its being an anniversary edition,
has led to speculation that Apple could charge record prices for
it, said Steven Milunovich, an analyst with UBS.
Apple is extraordinarily secretive about its plans, making it
difficult for analysts and investors to know what to expect -- and
adding risk for anyone betting that the new phone will be a hit.
Even the prospective name is debated: some analysts saying Apple
will call it the iPhone 8; others suggest it will be the iPhone X.
Apple declined to comment.
Apple has struggled with intensifying smartphone competition
over the past couple of years. In China, the world's largest
smartphone market, rivals have cut into Apple's market share with
cheaper phones offering comparable technology. Samsung Electronics
Co. and Google have added pressure with new, higher-priced
devices.
The iPhone 7, launched in September, hasn't led to the kind of
sales jumps Apple recorded with previous new models, but it has
helped rekindle enthusiasm. It was the best-selling smartphone in
China, according to Kantar Worldpanel, helping stabilize Apple's
revenue there after three quarters of declines. That gave investors
"increased comfort that China is not falling off a cliff," said Jim
Tierney, chief investment officer of concentrated U.S. growth at
AllianceBernstein Holding LP.
Since the first iPhone was unveiled, Apple shares have gained a
median of 4.3% between the announcement of a new model and when it
started selling, according to Bespoke Investment Group. The iPhone
7 extended that streak, surging 11% in the first full week after
its unveiling. Apple reported in January that the new device helped
deliver record shipments for the three months ended in December and
helped boost total revenue in the quarter by 3% to a record $78.4
billion.
Apple has more going for it than smartphones. Its highly
profitable services business, which includes sales of apps and
streaming music, increased revenue 18% to $7.2 billion during the
December quarter, making it bigger than many large companies. Apple
also is holding $230.2 billion in cash overseas that it plans to
bring back to the U.S. if there's tax reform -- a prospect that has
raised hopes of stock buybacks, dividends and even an acquisition,
Mr. Stannard-Stockton said.
But what Apple hasn't done is replicate its iPhone success with
other products -- and that raises questions about its future. The
company hasn't introduced a game-changing product since the iPad in
2011. The Apple Watch, introduced in 2015, hasn't been a breakout
success, and its wireless Airpod earbuds are in their infancy.
"The iPhone as a form factor will sometime disappear," said Mr.
Stannard-Stockton. "Can they produce entirely new form factors and
devices?"
Still, Apple shares actually are relatively inexpensive, even
after the recent run-up. They are trading at roughly 16 times the
past 12 months of earnings, compared with prices averaging about 23
times earnings for other tech stocks in the S&P 500 -- and
below Apple's 10-year average of 21 times earnings, according to
FactSet.
"It's gone from a growth stock that was largely overvalued to a
value stock," said Jack Brown of Aviance Capital Partners LLC, a
Naples, Fla., investment firm that counts Apple among its largest
holdings in both its growth-strategy and value-strategy
portfolios.
And in some ways, the iPhone's lackluster performance over the
past year or so has laid the foundation for more growth. There are
now more than 600 million iPhones world-wide, and many of the
phones in circulation are iPhone 6 models, suggesting Apple could
benefit from a swell of upgrades in coming years. An estimated 85%
to 90% of those iPhone users will buy another iPhone when they
upgrade, according to UBS.
"What happened with the last quarter is people discovered
there's a replacement need for these phones," said Michael Harkins,
a partner at Levy, Harkins & Co., a New York investment
advisory that counts Apple among its holdings. "They wear out and
that's not changing any time soon."
Write to Tripp Mickle at Tripp.Mickle@wsj.com and Aaron Kuriloff
at aaron.kuriloff@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 13, 2017 10:30 ET (15:30 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2017 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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