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| Sharp Afternoon Slide Portends Possible Top |
The indices had an extremely interesting session. The rally continued early on as the indices exploded after positive Wells Fargo (WFC) earnings came out along with earnings by several other companies.
The Nasdaq 100 surged from 1755 to 1780.83, a new 2009 high. The S&P 500 exploded over 1100 to 1101.36, and then consolidated for several hours in what looked like potential bull consolidations. But when no rally materialized the indices rolled over very sharply in the last hour.
The NDX dropped from 1774 to 1751 just in the last hour alone, and the SPX from 1098 to 1081, a very steep drop in a very short period of time, closing near the lows for the day going away.
Net on the day the Dow was down 92.12 at 9949.36, or 150 points off its high. The S&P 500 was down 9.66 at 1081.40, 20 points off its high, and the Nasdaq 100 was down 2.63 at 1753.56, 27 points off its high.
The technicals deteriorated steadily in the last hour. Advance-declines were more than to 2 to 1 negative on New York and a similar amount on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 2 to 1 negative on New York on total volume of under 1.4 billion. Nasdaq traded over 2 1/2 billion and had a 2 to 1 negative volume ratio.
So volume increased on the downside, certainly a bearish sign.
The only thing that stood out on the TheTechTrader.com board were the ultrashorts and a couple junior oils. The Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares (FAZ) gained 99 cents to 20.18 on over 100 million. The Direxion Small Cap 3x Bear (TZA) jumped 41 cents to 11.76, and the Direxion Large Cap Bear 3X Shares (BGZ) 53 cents to 19.70. The UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) added 22 cents to 9.95. All were near their highs for the session.
The U.S. Oil Fund ETF (USO) gained 94 cents at 41.33, as oil continued to rise, closing over $81 a barrel.
Brigham Exploration (BEXP) hit new 13-month highs at 11.14 early in the session, but got hit late in the day when the market dropped. It still closed up 67 cents at 10.68 on 5.9 million.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) firmed late in the session, up 35 cents to 9.55 on 2 1/2 million.
On the downside, loss leaders included Goldman Sachs (GS), which got hammered and broke support, closing at 179.26, down 5.70. JP Morgan (JPM) lost 1.38 to 44.65. Wells Fargo (WFC) got smacked below 30 and then below 29, closing at 28.90, down 1.56. American International Group (AIG) fell 1.40 to 39.03.
So, it was a very negative day for financials, leading the market lower.
Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns they were up sharply in the morning, consolidated mid-day, rolled over sharply late in the afternoon and closed near the session lows, cracking key trendline and moving average support levels today. It appears that the run may be over, but we’ll see, as the indices closed right near a key level at SPX 1080-81, closing at 1081.40. They may break this early tomorrow; we’ll see if there’s a downside follow-through, which would be key to determining if the top is in.
Good trading!
Harry | |
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