Sales of Wyeth's (WYE) new antidepressant Pristiq are nowhere near the drug maker's 2006 peak annual forecast of more than $2 billion, due to fewer regulatory approvals than originally expected, plus skepticism about its effectiveness. However, Wyeth and future parent Pfizer Inc. (PFE) are betting expansion into new markets and regulatory clearance for new uses will drive future growth.

THE DRUG: Pristiq is a tablet taken once daily to treat major depressive disorder. It is chemically derived from Wyeth's older, best-selling antidepressant, Effexor, but Pristiq potentially has patent protection lasting more than a decade beyond the expected 2010 loss of market exclusivity for Effexor. Approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in February 2008, Pristiq has a wholesale list price of $3.57 per tablet, or about $107 for a 30-day supply.

THE OPPORTUNITY AND CHALLENGE: Antidepressants are the eighth biggest drug category, totaling $20.3 billion in 2008 sales, says prescription-data provider IMS Health. Wyeth hopes to tap an additional market with Pristiq - relief of menopausal symptoms, for which the drug is now in testing.

But Pristiq entered a crowded market with established brand-name blockbusters Effexor and Eli Lilly & Co.'s (LLY) Cymbalta, plus cheaper generic options. U.S. drug-benefit plans were initially slow to provide favorable coverage for Pristiq, but Wyeth says that has improved. Wyeth withdrew an application for European Union regulatory approval of Pristiq in October because officials said the drug seemed less effective than Effexor with no advantages in terms of safety and tolerability. Wyeth still hopes to sell it in Europe eventually.

PRISTIQ SALES: $115.8 million between its launch in the spring of 2008 and through March 31. In comparison, Effexor, which went on sale in the 1990s, had $2.7 billion in sales for 2008.

PRESCRIPTIONS: About 1.3% of all U.S. antidepressant prescriptions written in the week ended May 22 were for Pristiq, versus 9.1% for Effexor, 9.8% for Cymbalta and 16.8% for Lexapro from Forest Laboratories Inc. (FRX), according to Deutsche Bank.

THE MARKETING: Wyeth is running a television commercial featuring a sluggish female wind-up doll to illustrate the effects of depression. The doll perks up as the commercial progresses. Also, Wyeth has launched a "Start Today" campaign offering to pay for 50% of patients' out-of-pocket costs for the drug.

WHAT WYETH SAYS: "Pristiq continues to show steady progress in product usage, patient and physician acceptance, and formulary coverage as an antidepressant in the U.S. market...We remain committed to developing Pristiq for menopausal symptom relief to enable it to reach its full potential." - Joseph Mahady, senior vice president, April 29.

WHAT ANALYSTS SAY: "WYE's new offering has only made very modest inroads into the antidepressant market." - Deutsche Bank's Barbara Ryan, June 1.

"Data from surveyed physicians suggest that Pristiq is weakly differentiated from Effexor XR, with no single reason compelling physicians to prescribe the former." - Decision Resources, May report.

WHAT'S NEXT: Beginning July 1, Impax Laboratories Inc. (IPXL) will help Wyeth promote Pristiq. A study testing Pristiq's efficacy and safety in menopausal women is expected to be completed by the end of this year; Wyeth plans to submit the data to the Food and Drug Administration in 2010 in hopes of approval for that use.

-By Peter Loftus, Dow Jones Newswires; 215-656-8289; peter.loftus@dowjones.com