DiscoverGold
2 days ago
Jack Chan: Gold Price Exclusive Update
By: Jack Chan | March 16, 2024
Our proprietary cycle indicator is UP.
To public readers of our updates, our cycle indicator is one of the most effective timing tool for traders and investors. It is not perfect, because periodically the market can be more volatile and can result in short term whipsaws. But overall, the cycle indicator provides us with a clear direction how we should be speculating.
Investors
Accumulate positions during an up cycle and hold for the long term.
Traders
Enter the market at cycle bottoms and exit at cycle tops for short term profits.
GLD is on short term buy signal.
GDX is on short term buy signal.
XGD.to is on short term buy signal.
GDXJ is on short term buy signal.
Analysis
Current data suggests a pullback/consolidation is imminent.
Current data supports an overall higher dollar.
Our ratio is on a new buy signal.
Trend is DOWN for USD.
Trend is DOWN for gold stocks.
Trend is UP for gold.
The underperfomance reached the lowest point in 2015, and we are now testing that low.
Summary
Gold sector cycle is up.
Trend is up for gold and down gold stocks, and down for USD.
$$$ We are partially invested for the current up cycle.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 days ago
Gold Market Update - Another Strong Upleg Looks Imminent As Bull Flag Completes...
By: Clive Maund | March 16, 2024
After almost 4 years of going nowhere gold has this month broken out into what looks set to be by far its biggest bullmarket to date, and it would be surprising if it wasn’t given the fundamental outlook which is for currency and societal collapse, implosion of the debt and derivatives markets and war and general chaos and mayhem as the prelude to an intended global government involving the imposition of the CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) system as part of a total control grid.
Fortunately for investors the situation is now very clear with respect to gold and gold investments and easy and simple to elucidate.
Our very long-term chart going all the way back to the start of the year 2000 shines a giant searchlight on gold’s situation, quickly revealing that beyond the great 2000’s bullmarket, the price has marked out a fine example of a gigantic Cup & Handle base which is of such a magnitude that it can support a massive bullmarket, which as mentioned above is likely to be of unprecedented proportions. The reason for this update now is that it has just this month, at last, broken out of the top of this completed base pattern, so for investors in the sector there is still almost everything to go for.
Now we will zoom in to examine the latter part of this gigantic base pattern using a 5-year chart, which shows the strong rally in 2019 and 2020 to form the right side of the Cup and then the lengthy Handle trading range that followed which continued right up to the end of last month. This chart makes clear the importance of the resistance level marking the horizontal upper boundary of the Handle trading range, as the price got turned back from the $2050 - $2100 level on four occasions but the last time this happened, early in December, the bullishly aligned moving averages were at hand, not far beneath to provide support and limit the reaction that followed. The Accumulation line fell hard on this retreat, however, giving a false signal that temporarily fooled us (me) and this may somehow have been staged to throw people off before the big move, or it may simply be that it did have negative implications that were quickly eclipsed by subsequent developments. In any event, gold made the big breakout on good volume this month which we will now look at in more detail on the 6-month chart.
On the 6-month chart we can see to advantage gold’s powerful and decisive breakout on persistent strong volume and how it took it sharply higher to become super-critically overbought on its RSI indicator which is why it has stopped to “get its breath back” this past week. The resistance at $2100 has now deciisively fallen and with momentum positive and moving averages in strongly bullish alignment gold is now a bullmarket and for the reasons stated above it is likely to be one for the record books.
We will now proceed to look at gold again, this time on a shorter-term 3-month chart, the reason being to examine the price / volume action this month in an effort to determine what is going to happen next. The pattern that has formed as the price has reacted back slightly does not look like a top – price / volume action strongly suggests that it is a bull Flag / Pennant that will be followed by another strong upleg, similar in magnitude to the one that led into it and perhaps even stronger as gold is now in “open country” and moving away from the gravitational pull of the giant trading range. Volume has eased back in a most satisfactory manner during the past week with the MACD histogram (bars) also easing back considerably, suggesting that another big upleg is not just likely to happen soon, but imminent.
If gold looks like this on its 3-month chart, then what about gold stocks? Gold’s decisive breakout led to a powerful advance by gold stocks, as represented by the GDX ETF, whose 3-month chart shows a dynamic first impulse wave out of a Double Bottom, that was accompanied by high volume and gaps – this is very bullish. This waveform looks very like the first impulse wave in August of 1982 in the broad stockmarket that marked the start of the great 1980’s bullmarket which followed a decade of going nowhere (the 1970’s). On that occasion the market only reacted back a little – a lot less than many traders had expected and hoped for – before blasting higher again in a 2nd powerful impulse wave, and it never looked back. The lesson here is clear – if you are angling for a reaction back before buying the sector or adding to positions you are likely to be disappointed. The most it is likely to react back is to the minor support level near to $29.20 and it may not react back any more at all. From this position it could blast higher again almost without warning.
Adding fuel to the fire in a positive sense for gold (and silver) stocks is the fact that they are woefully undervalued relative to gold itself, as our chart for GDX going back to 2005 makes apparent. Gold is higher now than its 2011 peak, yet GDX, representing PM stocks, is about half the price it was in 2011, so it is clear that PM stocks have a lot of catching up to do and as gold continues to ascend they will attract growing speculative interest, eventually displaying the positive leverage to the gold price that they are famed for.
Lastly we can see how horribly undervalued Precious Metals stocks are relative to gold itself on our chart for GDX divided by gold going back to 2001. Only on two other occasions during the life of this chart have they been so undervalued – once at the nadir of the sector depression late in 2015 and early in 2016, and again at the depths of the Covid crash in the Spring of 2020 which was a freak event when the entire world was in the grip of an orchestrated mass psychosis. So, given that gold has entered a bullmarket that is likely to be of awesome magnitude, it should be clear that the upside potential of the better stocks in this sector is truly massive and that, despite their gains of the past couple of weeks they are still at exceedingly good prices compared to where they are headed.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
3 days ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 16, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 12, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 201.6k, up 10.3k.
Since it hit $2,203/ounce – a record – last Friday, gold has come under slight pressure, closing this week down 1.1 percent to $2,162 – first down week in four. Gold bugs, however, showed up for most of this week at/near $2,150s. Last December, the metal ticked $2,152, which was a new high back then, and reversed lower. Before that in October, it bottomed at $1,824. It has come a long way from that low.
In the sessions ahead, gold is likely to breach the $2,150s support. In an ideal scenario for the bulls, it then heads toward $2,080s for a successful breakout retest, laying the foundation for the next leg higher.
Since August 2020, when $2,080s was hit the first time, rally attempts stopped at that level several more times, including March 2022 ($2,079), May last year ($2,085) and a few more times this year.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
3 days ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 16, 2024
Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction decline from the high established during December 2023. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 21612 and overhead resistance forming above at 21908. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening below this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 4th at 22030, which was up 3 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 3 weeks reaching a high during the week of March 4th at 20881. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a reasonable move of 2.124% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 19964 as it has fallen back reaching only 4523 which still remains -77.3% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is cautiously starting to strengthen since the previous low at 19964 made 4 weeks. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of March 4th has exceeded the previous high of 20832 made back during the week of January 29th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past week.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in December 2023 at 21523. After a thirteen month rally from the previous low of 19879, it made last high in December. Since this last high, the market has corrected for thirteen months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in March, this market has held above last month's low of 19964 reaching 20470.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19070 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
4 days ago
Gold Price Forecast: Inside Week Sets Stage for Potential Bullish Continuation
By: Bruce Powers | March 15, 2024
• Gold's inside week suggests consolidation, setting the stage for a potential bullish breakout if this week's high is exceeded.
Gold is set to close the week with an inside week. This week’s trading range is contained within the price range of last week. It sets up a potential bullish continuation trigger on the weekly time frame if this week’s high of 2,189 is exceeded to the upside. An inside week shows price consolidating on that the weekly time frame.
Weekly Consolidation Shows Strength Remaining
Notice that this week’s price range occurred near the high of last week’s range. That shows strength remaining as demand was strong enough to keep gold from sliding further. It reflects a minimum impact from selling pressure this week as the pullback held support around the 8-Day MA (blue). A decisive breakout above this week’s high would be the first bullish signal. Following that, further signs of strength would be needed for indications that the continuation of the rally is sustainable. Of course, the recent high of 2,195 would be next on the agenda. Ideally, the weekly breakout is strong enough to quickly push through that high.
Higher Price Targets
Assuming that is the case, gold would then be heading toward a price range marked Fibonacci confluence of three extended measurements. That range is from 2,235 to 2,247. It includes the 161.8% extension of the retracement from the decline off the May 2023 swing high. Also, the 161.8% extension of the decline following the new record high in December is included.
Bearish Signal Likely Leads to Deeper Pullback
Nonetheless, today’s price action shows a minor weakening sign. It looks like gold may close below the 8-Day MA for the first time since the advance accelerated on February 29. This could be a clue that eventually leads to further weakening. However, a bearish signal would be needed and that doesn’t happen until gold drops below this week’s low is 2,151. The more significant support level looks to be down near the 50% retracement at 2,088. It is matched by the December 25 swing high, which gives it more weight than if the indicator was by itself. Higher levels to watch are marked on the charts.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
4 days ago
Decisive Long-Term Breakout for Gold
By: Carl Swenlin | March 15, 2024
This month, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) broke out to new, all-time highs. That was a significant long-term move, which we will discuss when we get to the monthly chart.
Of more immediate interest is the fact that sentiment is still bearish, which bodes well for a continued advance. We gauge sentiment based upon whether closed-end fund Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) is selling at a premium (bullish sentiment) or discount (bearish sentiment). Currently, PHYS is selling at a discount to NAV.
The weekly chart gives a better perspective of the significance of the breakout, which was decisive. The overhead resistance has held GLD back for more than three years, and has now become support.
But the monthly chart shows that it has been a much longer wait than three years. Gold made all-time highs back in 2011, following which it declined nearly fifty percent. It finally recovered to new, all-time highs in 2020, but it has been stalled until this month. Practically speaking, gold investors have been waiting about 13 years for this encouraging move. The positive side is that gold has established a solid high-level base at around 2,000 to provide future support. Also note how bullish sentiment got (a premium of about +14%) during the parabolic advance on the left side of the chart.
Investing in gold presents some difficulties that must be considered. (Disclaimer: This is information, not a recommendation.) If you buy physical gold, you have to have a safe place to store it. A safe deposit box can be accessed/frozen by the government, and an adequate safe is expensive, difficult to move, and entails some vulnerability. Some ETFs, like GLD, do not actually own physical gold. An alternative is iShares Gold Trust (IAU), which is a closed-end fund that owns physical gold. Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) is similar to IAU, but it is a foreign entity based in Canada. Consider the implications of all options available.
Conclusion: Gold's recent breakout was a long time coming and appears to have positive long-term implications. Also, the long period of consolidation has created an impressive base of long-term support.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
4 days ago
Gold Continues to Consolidate
By: Christopher Lewis | March 15, 2024
• The gold market has continued to consolidate during the trading session on Friday as we are near the highs and simply grinding away. This is a sign that the market is trying to work off the froth.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market initially did rally during the trading session on Friday, but it looks like the $2,175 level is starting to cause a little bit of a headache for traders, and I think that might end up being the main story here. After all, we have a situation where gold has gotten a little stretched. So, a little bit of a pullback wouldn’t necessarily be the biggest surprise. Ultimately though, I think you’ve got to look at this through the prism of a market that once it does pull back, you have to be thinking of it as a buying opportunity.
After all gold has been strong for quite some time and there are a lot of fundamental reasons to think that continues. That’s not to say that we can’t pull back towards the $2,075 level, an area that was previous resistance. And I think a lot of people would be very interested in buying due to the fact that there’s a lot of market memory there. That being said, be cautious. I wouldn’t get overly exposed at this point, but I’m certainly not looking to short gold anytime soon. With that, I am just waiting for the pullback to bounce in and then to get involved. If we can break above the recent highs, that would also be a very strong sign, obviously.
And at that point in time, I think you have to look at it through the prism of a market that will eventually go looking maybe as high as $2,500. That’s obviously a longer term projection, but it is something that could happen. So with that, I like the idea of owning gold. I don’t want to short the gold market regardless, even if you told me we were going to pull back, I wouldn’t be inclined to do so. Now it just comes down to whether or not we go sideways and work off some of the excess froth or if we pull back and try to find and create more value.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
5 days ago
Gold Support Levels and Potential Upside Continuation
By: Bruce Powers | March 14, 2024
• Gold remains above key support at the 8-Day moving average, but a decline below 2,151 could lead to further selling pressure.
Gold continues to hold above support around the 8-Day MA with a with a three-day low of 2,151. That is the bottom of the price range and key near-term support. The 8-Day line was breached briefly today but it looks like the close will be at or above the line. Therefore, a decline below 2,151 could lead to further selling.
Deeper Retracement Still Possible
If a deeper retracement begins in gold there are several price zones to keep an eye on for possible support. The first being the prior record high at 2,135, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2,115 and the 50% retracement at 2,090. The lower price zone is enhanced by the 20-Day MA, currently at 2,088, and the swing high from late December around 2,088. Further down is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2,065, which is confirmed by the swing high from February 1.
Bullish Continuation Scenario
Alternatively, since gold has been holding relatively strong since last week’s new record high of 2,195, an upside continuation remains a possibility before a deeper correction. A decisive breakout above today’s high of 2,177 would provide a bullish signal, with further confirmation provided on a rally above yesterday’s high of 2,180. This doesn’t mean it will keep rising though. It should be watched carefully for further signs confirming the bullish posture.
Nevertheless, the next higher targets comprise two ranges from Fibonacci extensions of prior swings. The first zone is from 2,235 to 2,246 and the second is from 2,277 to 2,298. The top of the second price zone also completes the initial target for a large rising ABCD pattern. That is where there is symmetry in price between the CD leg and the AB leg of the pattern. Once symmetry occurs the chance for a reversal increases.
Multi-Year Breakout in Play
Since there is only one more trading day left to the week it is likely that gold will end with a high inside week. In other words, the full trading range for the week is near the highs of last week. This shows strong demand remaining for gold. Keep in mind that gold closed at a new record high last week as it rose out of a multi-year basing pattern. That likely sets the stage for a multi-month or multi-year advance.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
5 days ago
Gold Market Update - Major Breakout Marks Start Of Rercord Breaking Bullmarket...
By: Clive Maund | March 11, 2024
It’s a very good time to review gold’s major breakout because, in addition to breaking above the key $2100 level that we had for some considerable time noted was key, it has broken above its intraday highs of early December at just above $2150. Gold is now on it’s way and nothing will stop it because it is simply rising to compensate for the exponentially growing ocean of dollars created by the Fed.
Some fear that gold will drop because the dollar index could continue to rise for a while due to countries and other dollar debtors struggling to redeem their dollar denominated debts by purchasing dollars, but with regard to this the crucial point to grasp is that new dollars are being created at such a fantastic rate by the Fed in order to backstop the failing Treasury market and to fund Israel and the Ukraine etc that gold has no choice but to go up to compensate. We are therefore likely to find ourselves in a situation for a while where the dollar and gold ascend in tandem. Eventually the debt market will blow to smithereens at which point gold and silver will go vertical and skyrocket.
On the 6-month chart for gold in dollars below you will observe that gold has now broken clear above the key resistance at $2100 which stopped it in its tracks early in December, and in addition to that it has in recent days pushed on above the residual resistance at its early December intraday highs at $2152.30 which confirms that the breakout is valid. You may recall that we were wary for a while because of the horrible deterioration of the Accumulation line in January, but that has now largely been made good by its strong recovery over the past couple of weeks mostly due to the persistent strong upside volume on this breakout drive. Although now short-term overbought because of its steep ascent this month which could result in its consolidating for a while or reacting back somewhat, any such reaction is unlikely to be more than trivial due to the picture now being so positive for gold both fundamentally and technically and to the extent that it occurs will be viewed as an opportunity to buy various PM stocks or add to positions.
We can clearly see why the $2100 level was so important for gold on its 5-year chart, for this level had turned the price back on several occasions since the mid-2020 peak. We can also see on this chart that the price and moving averages are in most favorable alignment and that it can get a lot more overbought on its MACD indicator than it currently is. Also shown at the top of this chart is GDX (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF) which makes plain how PM stocks have grossly underperformed gold itself , especially over the past year. This is very bullish, because when investors are excessively pessimistic towards the sector they favor gold over stocks, reasoning that it is less risky. We can therefore expect this divergence to narrow and with gold going up, it means gold (and silver) stocks should go up more.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
6 days ago
Gold Strong Demand Amidst Mild Retrace
By: Bruce Powers | March 13, 2024
• Gold's retracement from a record high remains mild, supported by strong demand. Potential for further ascent exists, with key targets at 2,235 to 2,247.
Gold’s retracement from last week’s 2,195 record high has been mild so far with support seen around the 8-Day MA the past couple of days. Although last week’s high hit several key target areas that could lead to a deeper retracement, demand has stayed strong. Today’s low bounced off the 8-Day line almost exactly, putting gold in a position to finish in the green with an inside day.
Demand Stays Strong
Since demand has stayed strong following last week’s peak, there remains a chance that gold will continue its ascent before a more significant retracement. A rally above today’s high of 2,180 will provide the next sign of strength. However, that should be followed by a breakout above yesterday’s high of 2,184 as it will further confirm the bullish signal. A continuation of the bull trend above 2,185 then becomes more likely.
Long-Term Breakout Confirmed
Since gold has broken out to a new record high and it was confirmed by a weekly close above the prior high of 2,135, there is a good chance that the next higher target zone could be reached. In addition, bullish signals were triggered on the monthly chart for gold. The breakout is from a multi-year basing pattern and the breakout has only just begun. The next higher target zone is from 2,235 to 2,247 and is derived from Fibonacci ratio analysis. Two 161.8% extended targets make up that range. The next higher target range beyond 2,447 is from 2,277 to 2,298.
Drop Below 2,156 Likely Leads to Deeper Retracement
Nevertheless, a deeper retracement becomes more likely on a drop below today’s low of 2,156 and confirmed on a drop below yesterday’s low of 2,151. The 8-Day MA is currently at 2,155. Previous resistance at the prior high of 2,135 may then be tested as support. Further down is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2,115. However, the more significant support area looks to be around 2,088. That level includes the 50% retracement, and it was a resistance peak in late-December.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
7 days ago
Gold Bearish Reversal Triggers Retracement from Recent Peak
By: Bruce Powers | March 12, 2024
Gold experiences bearish reversal, triggered by breakdown from inside day following the 2,195 top. Potential retracement ahead based on key technical patterns.
A bearish reversal triggered in gold today with a breakdown from an inside day. This follows the 2,195-peak hit on Friday. There are several reasons why last week’s high might be followed by a retracement. It was a key target zone identified previously from measured moves, a symmetrical triangle pattern (blue boundary lines), and the completion of a rising ABCD pattern. Combined, the methods identified a strong target around 2,189 to 2,194.
Measured Move Completes
The 2,195-swing high completed a 10.6% rally from the February 14 swing low (C). It matches the two measured moves seen earlier in the uptrend structure beginning from October 2023 swing low. The first advance off that low was 11% and the second was 10.5%. This reflects symmetry in price between the three rallies. In addition, the time relationship was close. The first two advances took place over 15 days and the most recent topped after 17 days.
Symmetrical Triangle Target Hit
Moreover, the measuring objective derived from the symmetrical triangle on the chart identified 2,189 as a key new high target. Simply, the price height of the pattern (first rising purple arrow) is added to the breakout area to arrive at a minimum potential target.
ABCD Pattern Target Reached
Finally, a rising ABCD pattern shows symmetry between the AB leg of the rally and the CD leg of the pattern at 2,179. Not a perfect match with the above noted range, but still close. Regardless, it does provide further evidence for a price range where resistance is likely to be encountered.
Retracement Targets
Today’s bearish reversal breached a three-day low of 2,154 and puts gold on track to possibly close below that price level. Given the swing relationships noted above it seems likely to see a deeper retracement beyond the minimum before gold is ready to resume its ascent. The prior record high is at 2,035 and it marks the first zone where support might be seen. A little lower is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2,115. The next lower price level at 2,088 looks interesting as it is highlighted by two indicators. It is marked by the 50% retracement and was also a key peak resistance level in late-December (B).
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
7 days ago
Gold Markets Continues to Recover on Each Dip
By: Christopher Lewis | March 12, 2024
• Gold continues to be very volatile, as we see a lot of noise in general. With so much momentum, its almost impossible to short at this point, nor should you.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market initially pulled back a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, but has since recovered after the CPI numbers because they were hotter than anticipated, but just a bit. So with that being said, it wasn’t a huge shock so I think at this point in time you continue to have the same market, one where traders come in to pick up dips as value.
There are plenty of reasons to believe that gold goes higher over the longer term, but quite frankly, I don’t like the idea of chasing it all the way up here. After all, gold has had a massive run as of late, and therefore, there’s no reason to pay up at this juncture. There are plenty of geopolitical reasons to think that gold will continue to go higher over the longer term and therefore I think if you are already involved in gold then you probably don’t have a lot to do.
However, sooner or later we will get a pullback and it could be somewhat substantial. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see a $50 pullback. The $2075 level underneath should be rather significant support as it was once significant resistance and therefore I think a lot of people will be especially interested in that area.
Central banks around the world will be cutting rates this year and that will help lift gold, not to mention the fact that there are plenty of geopolitical issues out there that could come into the picture as well. And therefore, I think you really have to look at this as a market that you are trying to find a little bit of value in. That being said, I still think we have a scenario where a little bit of position sizing probably goes a long way. You don’t want to be overexposed right away, but you could build up a position as it gains.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks
By: Mike Gleason | March 11, 2024
This week investors are witnessing a historic move in gold prices. The precious metal finally broke above a longstanding overhead resistance level to reach new all-time highs.
On Thursday, gold closed at $2,170 per ounce – its highest level since…well, since records have been kept.
As of this Friday recording, gold checks in at $2,203 an ounce on the heels of a 5.2% advance on the week – its best week in nearly six months. Silver shows a weekly gain of 5.9% to bring spot prices to $24.70 an ounce. Platinum is up 3.0% to trade at $926. And finally, palladium is putting in a 6.7% gain this week to come in at $1,061 per ounce.
For now, the white metals are playing catch-up to gold, and are certainly taking a backseat to the yellow metal, as its historic price move commands headlines.
Of course, gold’s spot quote in terms of U.S. dollars is largely a reflection of the currency’s steadily declining purchasing power. Plenty of other assets are also zooming to new nominal records, including stocks and cryptocurrencies.
The question for investors is which assets will hold value, or gain value, in real terms going forward.
The stock market tends to outpace inflation over the long run. However, buying an S&P 500 index fund at the wrong time could mean it will take years or even decades for buy-and-hold investors to see a real positive return on investment.
The period from 2000 to 2010 was a lost decade for equity investors. The S&P 500 failed to deliver a positive nominal return over those years – let alone gain enough to beat inflation. And the 1966 to1982 period was an extended lost decade as high inflation inflicted devastating real losses on Wall Street.
That same inflation that peaked in the late 1970s helped propel gold and silver into epic bull markets.
Few investors today own any bullion at all for inflation protection. Most are dangerously overexposed to stocks, bonds, and other Wall Street assets.
Even bullish equity analysts admit that stocks are looking overextended here and due for at least something of a correction.
Precious metals markets are nearly the opposite of overextended. They are vastly under-owned by the investing public.
In recent months, assets held by gold-tracking exchange-traded products have shrunk while retail bullion buying has slowed. Premiums have come down across the board in the process.
But gold’s breakout to new highs is likely to draw in new buyers who had previously sat on the sidelines and don’t want to miss out on the bull market. It will also trigger momentum trading algorithms in futures markets with buy signals.
Gold has risen thus far largely on the strength of demand from Asia and global central banks. China has added to its gold reserves for 16 consecutive months. The People's Bank of China gobbled up 390,000 troy ounces of the monetary metal last month alone. The Chinese central bank now holds more than 2,200 tons of gold and is showing no signs of slowing down on its purchases.
Central banks generally don’t accumulate silver or other metals as monetary reserves. That partially explains why gold has outperformed the white metals over the past few years.
While gold has traditionally served as the money of kings, silver has served as the money of the masses. It is far more practical to be used in circulating coinage. Silver dimes, quarters, half dollars, and dollars can be more readily deployed for everyday purchases than far more valuable gold coins of any size or denomination.
Silver bullion coins, rounds, and bars are also more accessible to investors with limited budgets.
Gold’s push to new highs should boost broader interest in the metals space. And once silver gets some buying momentum behind it, its spot price can move more rapidly than gold’s.
In a precious metals bull market, silver stands to ultimately gain much more than gold in percentage terms – both because silver is a tighter, more thinly traded, and naturally more volatile market, and because its price is currently deeply discounted versus gold.
Silver prices would have to double from here just to match gold’s feat of making a new high. From there, a silver bull market could accelerate to much higher highs.
Those who would like to seize the opportunity to invest heavily in physical silver while prices remain depressed have many options. Of course, it’s always a good idea to start with some coins, rounds, and bars in various sizes as an essential foundation and for potential use in barter transactions.
Beyond that, investors need not necessarily take home delivery of silver bullion products in cumbersomely large quantities. They can instead opt to own silver that is stored directly in a secure vault on their behalf.
Money Metals Depository is proud to offer the most convenient and cost-effective way to own physical bullion with the peace of mind that comes through advanced security systems and insurance through Lloyd’s of London.
We are super excited for this upcoming summer, when we move into our all-new Money Metals Depository facility. Having outgrown our current building and our existing vaults, the new Money Metals Depository is more than DOUBLE the size of Fort Knox and is the largest such facility – by far – in the western half of North America. You'll be hearing more about this in the future.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Jack Chan: Gold Price Exclusive Update
By: Jack Chan | March 9, 2024
Our proprietary cycle indicator is now UP.
To public readers of our updates, our cycle indicator is one of the most effective timing tool for traders and investors. It is not perfect, because periodically the market can be more volatile and can result in short term whipsaws. But overall, the cycle indicator provides us with a clear direction how we should be speculating.
Investors
Accumulate positions during an up cycle and hold for the long term.
Traders
Enter the market at cycle bottoms and exit at cycle tops for short term profits.
GLD is on short term buy signal.
GDX is on short term buy signal.
XGD.to is on short term buy signal.
GDXJ is on short term buy signal.
Analysis
Current data suggests overall higher gold prices.
Current data supports an overall higher dollar.
Our ratio is on a new buy signal.
Trend is DOWN for USD.
Trend is DOWN for gold stocks.
Trend is UP for gold.
The underperfomance reached the lowest point in 2015, and we are now testing that low.
Summary
Gold sector cycle is up.
Trend is up for gold and down gold stocks, and down for USD.
$$$ We closed out 2023 with a nice profit. This marks the 5th straight profitable year for us.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Gold $GLD - Extreme Bull. The targets are a combination of Swings, Patterns & Measured Moves, along with Fibonacci Extensions
By: Sahara | March 9, 2024
• $GOLD $GLD - Extreme Bull.
The targets are a combination of Swings, Patterns & Measured Moves, along with Fibonacci Extensions.
Want to see this pop of the 'Cup' hold. If so then I'll be monitoring those Channel-Lanes for resistance and spprts.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Look At Gold Go For Benchmarks
By: Marty Armstrong | March 9, 2024
The Benchmark Cycles in the Metals come together once every 2.67 years. They will often highlight at least a temporary turning point, and then we run cycles on those that will signal the major convergences, such as the 1980 event. This is NOT a 1980 major event, but it is a period of a temporary turning point. Most goldbugs will be screaming that this is the breakout for $10,000. Sorry, not yet. Gold is rallying nicely into the Benchmark. Remember that, again, these Benchmarks are NOT included in the Timing Arrays, which are totally determined by Socrates. These Timing Arrays also do not include the Economic Confidence Model. Socrates determines the timing all by itself - no human intervention. Therefore, it is of great importance to see the Timing Array line up with these human-discovered cycles.
The Benchmark Convergences here in 2024 are the weeks of:
Gold & Silver the Benchmarks
03/11/2024 Silver
03/18/2024 Gold
07/08/2024 Gold
07/15/2024 Silver
We can see that the first bank of overhead resistance in gold stands at 2250 level with the extreme resistance at the 2316 area. You can see we have a turning point this week coming and a Panic Cycle the week of the 18th. This lines up perfectly with the Benchmarks. Therefore, we should expect to see this create a temporary high. Now look at the red line, which is the prior resistance that kept the market flat. What we need to see is gold fall back after this but hold that support at the $2,000 level in general. The next convergence is July, which has been my concern about any escalation of war might begin.
When we turn to the Monthly Timing Array, it is easy to see that we should have expected high volatility here in March. But April is a turning point and a Directional Change. The volatility appears to rise again after July. The next time these Benchmarks will converge will be December 2026 and April 2027. This will be the next MAJOR turning point in the metals on a yearly level after 2024. We will have to watch the $1985 level from here on out. A monthly closing below this area would ring the alarm bell that they will be more devisious than anyone expects.
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 9, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 5, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 191.3k, up 49.7k.
Gold bugs were able to build on last week’s action, when the metal closed at $2,096 – just above major resistance at $2,080s. This level has acted as a ceiling ever since August 2020 when gold reached $2,089 and retreated. After that, rally attempts stopped in March 2022 ($2,079), May last year ($2,085) and several times this year, not to mention last December when the metal hit a new high of $2,152.
This week, the December high was surpassed, with the yellow metal reaching $2,203 on Friday, closing at $2,186/ounce.
Gold has broken out of a long base. This is occurring at a time when equities, after massive rallies since last October’s lows, are showing signs of exhaustion.
The only thing is that gold has rallied for seven sessions in a row, with a somewhat parabolic look to it. A little backing and filling will be healthy.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 week ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 9, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 21855 and is trading up about 5.48% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. This price action here in March is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 22030 intraday and is still trading above that high of 20832.
Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction decline from the high established during December 2023. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Prominently, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 21505.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 4th at 22030, which was up 3 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 22030 to 20881. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 22030. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 21186 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in December 2023 at 21523. After a thirteen month rally from the previous low of 19879, it made last high in December. Since this last high, the market has corrected for thirteen months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in March, this market has held above last month's low of 19964 reaching 20470.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19070 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold Record Highs, but Is a Pullback Coming?
By: Bruce Powers | March 8, 2024
• Gold marks eighth consecutive day of price increases, showing strong upward momentum but signaling a possible temporary top and pullback.
Today, Friday, marks the eighth consecutive day in a row that the price of gold has progressed higher. On each of those days there has been a daily close above the high of the prior day. That is one sign of strong upward momentum. The uptrend has been clear, and it continued today with gold reaching a high of 2,195 before backing off. However, trends retrace and given initial signs of resistance today, at least a temporary top may have been reached leading to a pullback.
Key Target Reached
The 2,195-price zone (1,189 – 2,194) was highlighted in prior articles recently as a primary initial target for gold. It was identified from the two impulse rallies starting from the early-October swing low (A). A 10.5% advance of the rally from the recent swing low from mid-February completed at 2,194. In addition, an initial target derived from measuring the symmetrical triangle marked on the chart was at 2,189. Finally, you can see almost an exact hit with the 1.414% Fibonacci extension of the retracement from the decline following the May 4, 2023, swing high.
Long-Term Bullish Strength Signaled
Strength of the long-term breakout will confirm this week as gold is on track to close well above the prior record high of 2,135 from December. The breakout is very bullish as it occurred from a multi-year basing period for gold. Moreover, there have been three prior new record high breakouts starting from 2022 where the new high week closed above the prior record high. That will be the case this week and highlights strong upward momentum.
Risk of Retracement Increases
Nevertheless, as alluded to above, gold has reached a target and is extended. A correction of some degree could begin soon. The next sign of weakness that could lead to a deeper retracement occurs on a drop below today’s low of 2,154. Subsequently, a test of support near the prior high of 2,135 would not be surprising. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is at 2,115, which is very close to the 8-Day MA at 2,111. A more significant potential support level looks to be down around 2,088. Regardless, gold’s bullish breakout is not a secret and will likely continue to support improving demand in the previous metal.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold Markets Continue to See Upward Pressure
By: Christopher Lewis | March 8, 2024
• Gold markets have rallied again this week, testing the $2175 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think short-term pullbacks will continue to be bought into, as this market is one of the better performing ones that I follow at the moment.
Gold Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
The gold market has rallied pretty significantly during the course of the week as we have slammed to the upside yet again. And it looks like the market is going to continue to be one that runs much higher. This massive candlestick does suggest that we are going to go much higher, but I think at this point in time, you are hoping for a little bit of value. At this point, I don’t know that you are seeing it.
If it’s an investment and you don’t care about a drawdown for the next couple of months, then it’s very possible you could just go ahead and buy all the way up here. However, do recognize the fact that at least $100 in a pullback is possible here. That of course, is a pretty significant pullback, especially if you have a significant amount of leverage applied.
If we were to break down below the $2075 level, then we could go looking to the 2000 level, which I think is actually the floor in the market. Keep in mind that there are plenty of geopolitical issues out there that could drive this market higher, not to mention the fact that interest rates continue to drop. And of course, if we continue to see central banks around the world looking likely to cut, then gold will probably do quite well against all currencies, not just the US dollar. Buying the pullbacks continues to be the way I want to be involved in this market.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold Price Forecast: Symmetry Points to Higher Prices
By: Bruce Powers | March 7, 2024
• Gold's rally shows symmetry with past moves, hinting at higher prices. Current 9.1% increase nears a 10.5% target, with 2,194 as a significant resistance zone potentially.
Enthusiasm for gold shows no signs of stopping just yet. On Thursday the precious metal reached a new trend high of 2,165. And it is on track to close relatively strong, in the top third of the day’s range and above yesterday’s high of 2,152. Certainly, it looks overbought with price extended. In the very short-term it may be. Nevertheless, there were two sharp rallies earlier in the trend, coming off the October 6 swing low, that provide evidence for further upside in the near-term.
Two Earlier Impulse Rallies
The two earlier rallies referenced each completed in 15 days with the first seeing an 11% advance and the second a 10.5% increase in price. This shows symmetry between the two swings in both price and time. Given symmetry earlier in the trend, we may yet see it again in the current advance. Today is the 16th day of the rally when starting from the February 14 swing low. So, there may only be a match in time if today’s high is a top. However, the price relationship points to higher prices.
Symmetry Occurs at 2,194 Target Zone
Gold would need to rally to 2,194 price range to reach a 10.5% advance from the February low. Each of the prior impulse moves had a short two-day pullback before moving higher. We could surely see similar behavior in the current impulse rally on the way to 2,194. That target is given greater significance because the measuring objective or target derived from the symmetrical triangle shown on the chart is close at 1,189. Two methods pointing to a similar price zone.
Up as Much as 9.1% to Date
The current rally has seen the price of gold rise by as much as 9.1%. Not too far away from the 10.5% performance target. Given the clear rise in demand and high momentum seen in this rally, if a short-term stall comes, it may be used quickly by traders to enter or add to positions thereby pushing prices still higher. The 2,194-target zone is a pivot where resistance may be seen, or another breakout and confirmation of strength occurs on a decisive rally above 2,194.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold Continues to Look Explosive
By: Christopher Lewis | March 7, 2024
• Gold markets have continued to rally during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to see people chase the “FOMO trade” that gold has become.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
Gold rallied significantly during the course of the trading session here on Thursday in the early hours as we continue to see a lot of upward pressure at this point. There are a lot of questions as to whether or not we can continue this momentum and so far, it certainly looks as if we are going to remain bullish. But I also recognize that we are so overdone at this point in time, that it is only a matter of time before we pull back. I think we need to look at this as to whether or not it’s going to offer value in chasing the market all the way up here is is actually pretty reckless, although there are plenty of people willing to do that.
If we can pull back anywhere near $2100 or perhaps even the $2,075, then I like the idea of buying it and bouncing higher, finding some type of value. At this point I have $2,175 as a potential resistance barrier based upon a measured move, but nothing more than that. Interest rates will have a major influence on what happens with the gold market and of course with the jobs number coming out on Friday, there’s a very high likelihood that the bond markets go crazy, which will have a major influence on gold.
Either way, at this point in time, you are probably looking for some type of swing low that you can take advantage of. You just simply cannot chase a market that has gone straight up the way gold has 6%, which is a pretty big move for gold and just a handful of bars. I do think that you will be rewarded if you’re patient enough, but the question is, are you patient enough? If you are, I think you will get an opportunity to fight gold at a much better price than we presently see on the chart right now. Either way, it’s obvious that you cannot short this market anytime soon.
[url]https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-price-forecast-gold-continues-to-look-explosive-1414757[/tag] »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold New Record High, Eyes Further Upside
By: Bruce Powers | March 6, 2024
• Gold's breakout from multi-year basing phase is supported by monthly breakouts and symmetrical triangle breakout signals. Potential for further upside, aiming for 2,189.
Gold managed to continue its ascent on Wednesday as it reached a new record high of 2,152, pulling back slightly. Significantly, it is on track to close above the previous record high of 2,135 for the first time. However, this is not the first-time gold has closed above the prior record high. Each of the prior attempts since August 2020 were followed by notable corrections. This time seems different, but we need to see additional clues showing increasing demand. How the retracement occurs, once it happens, should be telling.
Support Levels if Pullback Begins
Each of several price zones noted on the way up is where to watch for potential support on the way down if a retracement comes before new trend highs. Near-term support is at today’s low of 2,124. A decline below that low is the sign of weakness that could lead to a deeper pullback. The prior record high at 2,135, followed by the prior swing high at 2,088 (B) are the first areas to watch for signs of support. Subsequently, there is the 8-Day MA at 2,076 followed by the 2,066, which was previously resistance over several days.
Breakout of Multi-Year Base
Gold is in the process of attempting to breakout of a multi-year basing period. It is supported by signs in the monthly chart, which show a consolidation phase for the past several months. On the weekly and daily charts, the consolidation pattern took the form of a symmetrical triangle. The breakout of the pattern has been clear and decisive. As of today, the price of gold has risen above the top of the pattern, further confirming strength. It also can be seen as improving the potential for gold to reach the minimum target projected from the pattern at 2,189. Whether it does so before or after a retracement remains to be seen.
Measured Moves Confirm Triangle Target
Previous measured moves provide further evidence for the 2,189-target zone being reached. Gold had two relatively sharp advances starting from the October 2023 swing low. A degree of symmetry shows between the two moves. The first advance was 11% and the second 10.5%. Gold will match a 10.5% rally in the current advance once it reaches 1,194, just five points from the triangle target.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold Surge to 2,142 and Beyond
By: Bruce Powers | March 5, 2024
• Gold's rapid ascent to a new record high of 2,142 reflects strong demand, with further bullish indications as it surpasses key targets and sets new closing price records
It did not take very long for gold to hit a new record high of 2,142 once demand kicked in. A four-week high was reached last Thursday before three sharp daily rallies occurred. Including today, they can be seen as three wide range green candles on the chart. Moreover, the first higher target discussed previously was reached at 2,131 today. Not only was the previous record high of 2,035 close to that target, but also a rising ABCD pattern extended by the 127.2% Fibonacci ratio completed there as well.
Watching for Daily Close Above 2,035
Gold continues to trade below both the 2,131 target and the prior record high at 2,135. Therefore, it could easily close below those price levels. However, if it can close above 2,131 it will be showing greater strength than closing lower. And a close above 2,135 of course is a more bullish indication than a close below 2,135.
Higher Target is 2,189
In the short-term, gold may be extended and due for a retracement or consolidation of a day or a few, if not longer. Once that phase is done, whichever form it takes, gold should be ready to proceed towards the first major higher target zone around 2,189 to 2,194. The current sharp advance in gold began following a breakout of a large symmetrical triangle pattern. An initial target can be calculated from the pattern, and it points to 2,189. The purple arrows mark the related measurements.
Measured Moves Confirm Target
Further, two previous measured moves are highlighted in blue on the chart. They show impulse rallies coming up off the October swing low. The first rally is 11% and the second 10.5%. If the lower 10.5% advance occurs in the current advance, gold would be hitting approximately 2,094. The measure starts from the most recent swing low at 1,984 (C).
Highest Daily Closing Price Historically
Yesterday’s closing price of 2,114 was the highest daily closing price ever for gold, and today will likely end with a new record closing price. Gold has been setting up for large move into new record highs ever since reaching a high of 1,921 in 2,011. A multi-year basing pattern followed in the shape of a cup with handle. If this week’s advance is sustained and the price of gold further strengthens, gold will be rising out of a new floor in price.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold Markets Continue to Look Bullish
By: Christopher Lewis | March 4, 2024
• Gold markets continue to look bullish in general, due to the fact that although we had an explosive Friday session, Monday has essentially seen traders just sitting there, and that of course makes quite a bit of sense being a bullish sign, because people are willing to hang on to the gain.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
Taking a look at the gold market and you can see that we have essentially gone nowhere early during the trading session on Monday after what was a very explosive Friday. With that being the case, the market looks as if it is going to continue to be very bullish in the long term. I just don’t see how this changes in the current trading environment, and of course the macroeconomic situation backs up this idea as well.
And at this point in time, I do like the idea of buying short-term pullbacks, mainly due to the fact that traders will continue to see this through the prism of the central bank actions around the world loosening monetary policy, driving up the value of gold. Furthermore, we have plenty of geopolitical concerns out there that could come into the picture that a lot of people are going to have to pay close attention to.
The 2050 level underneath, I think, continues to be a hard floor. Really at this point in time, I do not know that we will visit the $2,000 again, due to the fact that it has seen such a huge shot higher. If we can break the highs of the session on Friday, at essentially 2088, then the market is probably ready to rip higher in general. That doesn’t mean it will be easy or in a straight line, but it will continue to go higher.
In the meantime, though, I like the idea of looking for short-term pullbacks to take advantage of and get value. There is no scenario right now that I can foresee at least that I would be a seller of this market. It remains strong. And quite frankly, I think you also have to keep in mind that central banks around the world, not only loosening monetary policy, but also being net buyers of gold, has a major influence on this market as well buying the dips every chance I get.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 2, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 27, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 141.6k, up 1.4k.
Gold bugs are back at it again. In fact, with a close of $2,096/ounce this week, it has managed to reclaim $2,080s, which has acted as a ceiling ever since August 2020 when it reached $2,089 and retreated. After that, rally attempts stopped at that price point in March 2022 ($2,079), May last year ($2,085) and several times this year, not to mention last December when the metal hit a new high of $2,152.
This is as good an opportunity as it gets to build on this week’s action. Needless to say, a breakout would be massive. Encouragingly for the bulls, the metal has been making higher lows since November 2022 when it bottomed at $1,618.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 2, 2024
The NY Gold Futures has been in an uptrend for the past 2 days closing above the previous session's high quite significantly by 1.76%. The broader rally has unfolded over the past 12 days. Currently, the market is trading in a neutral position on our indicators but it is trading strongly higher up some 3.00% from the previous session low. Our projected target for closing resistance for the next session stands at 21289, we need to close above that target to imply a further advance. Failure to even exceed this intraday warns that the upward momentum is starting to decline. Our Stochastics are all still pointing upward while our internal momentum models have also remained in a bullish posture.
Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction decline from the high established during December 2023. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2023, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022 which signaled the rally would continue into 2023. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 1 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 20532.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 26th at 20971, which was up 2 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 20971 to 20334. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of February 26th reaching 20971 has exceeded the previous high of 20832 made back during the week of January 29th.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 2 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in December 2023 at 21523. After a thirteen month rally from the previous low of 19879, it made last high in December. Since this last high, the market has corrected for thirteen months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in March, this market has held above last month's low of 19964 reaching 20470.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19070 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Momentum Points to Potential Record Highs
By: Bruce Powers | March 1, 2024
• Gold's breakout from a consolidation pattern suggests bullish momentum, with targets near record highs around 2,135 and a potential surge towards 3,000.
Gold sees bullish follow through after yesterday’s breakout of a large symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern. So far, it is acting in a way that is very supportive of a bullish outlook. The precious metal took off and reached a high of 2,088 today before encountering resistance. That high completes the next target for gold, which was at 2,088 from the December 28 swing high (B). Gold is on track to close strong, in the top 25% of the day’s trading range.
Strong Bullish Momentum Indicated
This week’s bullish breakout may be the beginning of a run that sees gold reach new record highs. The last record high was set in December at 2,135. It is off to a good start with this week’s price action. Clearly, upward momentum has improved as represented by today’s wide range green candle and likely strong close. Gold broke out of a bullish hammer candlestick bottom two weeks ago on the weekly chart, providing a solid beginning to this rally.
Next Higher Target is $3,000
The next higher price target above today’s high is up around 2,100. At that point a rising ABCD pattern completes. Symmetry between the two swings in the pattern, the AB leg, and the CD leg, will match at that point. Nevertheless, that is the first target from the pattern. Given the likelihood of still higher prices there is a good chance that the target will be exceeded. The 127.2% ABCD pattern target will then be at 2,138, awfully close to the prior record high.
New High Target Zone: 2,189 to 2,192
Since yesterday’s breakout, however, an eventual target derived from the symmetrical triangle becomes more likely. That target is around 2,189 and marked on the chart. What is interesting is what happens when we look at the two sharp rallies that occurred before the three-month consolidation pattern. Each of the rallies saw an advance of over 10%.
The first was 11% and the second 10.5%. If the current rally matches a 10.5% advance, which would make sense given the previous rallies, gold would be hitting approximately 2,192. That is a very close match to the triangle target. When two methods identify a similar target, that target zone takes on greater potential significance.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold: Upside Breakout Reaches Four-Week Highs
By: Bruce Powers | February 29, 2024
• Gold's bullish momentum strengthened as it broke out from a symmetrical triangle pattern, signaling potential for a price surge.
Gold triggered a weekly bullish continuation signal today as it rallied above last week’s high of 2,041. Thursday’s high of 2,051 was a four-week high and an upside breakout further strengthened the bullish case for gold. A daily close above the four-week high of 2,045 is now possible. In addition, a weekly bullish signal gold is on track to end the day at its highest daily closing price in 19 days, and decisively close above the 50-Day MA. It is also on track to close above the downtrend line for the second day in a row as well as close above the uptrend line for the first time. These are all new bullish indications for gold that support the thesis for higher prices.
Weekly Bullish Signs
In addition to the weekly bullish signal, gold triggered a breakout from a large symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern today. It is an approximately three-month consolidation pattern. Today was the first bullish trigger. Further confirmation of strength is now needed. A secondary entry to the triangle breakout occurs on a rally above the 2,058-swing high from February 1. Once the second entry trigger occurs, the chance for a bullish continuation improves.
Symmetrical Triangle Target
We can derive a target from the triangle pattern by measuring the height of the pattern at its maximum distance and then adding that price change to the breakout level. When doing this a potential target of 2,189 is revealed. This target is approximate as the measures are not perfect, but they should be close. This week’s previous high of 2,041 is being used for the breakout level.
Next Potential Resistance Targets
Nevertheless, there are several price levels for earlier targets, prior to a breakout to new record highs. The first is the 2,058 swing high noted above, which followed by the next higher swing high from December at 2,088 (B). Short-term weakness should see support at or above the 50-Day MA, which is currently at 2,033. It happens to be marking a similar price level as the downtrend line. Also, today’s low of 2,028 is critical in the short-term. Given the potential significance of today’s bullish price action, short-term weakness will be watched carefully by traders to either enter or add to positions.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold