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FTSE 100
Indicators are mostly bearish and the Elliott wave is wave iii (circle) down. Wave 3 of a long term five-wave decline [i,ii,iii,iv,v (circle)] started from 6447.5. Seasonal influence is positive and the S&P is still in the uptrend, but sentiment has turned bearish and the 13-period MA has crossed below the 55-period MA (bearish). Because wave i (circle) is complete expect a bounce before the decline resume. The bounce will be wave ii (circle), the next move is wave iii (circle) down.
Gold
Indicators are mixed and the Elliott wave is wave (iii) up. Wave 5 ended at 1046, the final decline was in five waves. The rally to 1088.5 is wave (i), the current decline is wave (ii). The 13-period MA has crossed below the 55-period MA (bearish). It would appear that wave (ii) is not yet complete, therefore wave (iii) should start from lower levels. Wave (iii) should start from an area near 1060. See chart below.
S&P 500
Indicators are mostly bearish and the Elliott wave is wave (d) up. The index is tracing out a triangle [(a),(b),(c),(d),(e)] inside wave iv (circle). It’s not clear if wave (c) is complete, the index is weak today in pre-open. Sentiment has turned bearish but as long as the bottom of wave (a) at 2019.5 remains intact the next move should be up. For now wave (c) ended 2036.5, the action in pre-open does not count. If the index opens above 2036.5 at 2.30pm the odds will favour a rally which is wave (d). But too many indicators are bearish, the risk of a trend reversal is high.
EUR/USD
Indicators are mixed and the Elliott wave is wave iii (circle) down. A long term decline is unfolding in five waves [i,ii,iii,iv,v (circle)]. Wave i (circle) ended at 1.0533, the current rally is wave ii (circle) in three waves [(a),(b),(c)]. This move could be over because the rally carried above the top of wave (a). The next move should be wave iii (circle) down.
Thierry Laduguie is Trading Strategist at www.bettertrader.co.uk
