Whats happening in the Falklands on Zebedee Well ? Ithaca Energy Now Better North Sea Value

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Chris Oil been one of the main intial promoters of the Falklands since writing for ADVFN, these are my last thoughts before Zebedee well results. Yesterday the well reached TD  if we look back at old Desire CPR well report so expect news soon. Nobody knows the results however based on history the share price has not risen yet ! I fully expect some of the zones to be non commerical but the main point is the 52% cos zone commerical or not only time will tell.

Lets recap what Chris Oil highlighed since the start of the Falklands journey. Firstly i mentioned getting out of (LSE:FOGL) Falkand Oil & Gas at 38p, this was proved correct on near parity with (LSE:RKH) Rockhopper Exploration market cap and strong rumours of a city issue which will be coming down the road for the company at some time.

My thoughts on (LSE:FOGL) Falkland Oil & Gas are still an avoid if your upside is limited due to issue and any negative Zebedee news downside will be vast -70% SELL Panmure Gordon also agree having a 25p target.

Onto (LSE:RKH) Rockhopper Exploration i mentioned to derisk on spud even undervalued Rockhopper Exploration which has proven correct so far. However as mentioned if Zebedee does not come in you will have the cash, Sea Lion discovered 458m P50 and second chance Chatham 50% SL20 Fan to come later in the campaign. So for investors holding on is less of a risk with upside potential. I agree with Panmure Gordon recent notes who came to the same conclusion. BUY

(LSE:BOR) Borders & Southern Petroleum SELL & AVOID and (LSE:ARG) Argos Resources still a SELL & SHORT both proved correct choices.

My real question now at TD to Falkland investors is why gamble at all with a 50% upside at best and a 70% downside relating to (LSE:FOGL) Falkland Oil & Gas if Zebedee fails. When companies such as (LSE:IAE) Ithaca Energy due to the sharp fall presents a real low risked hedge 500% plus return by mid 2016. For example the risk factors here is the oil price in 2016 and the Stella producing rig floating away third time lucky, frankly the odds are far better than the Falklands now presents at well TD.

At the time of initial investing in the Falklands there were no North Sea opportunities. Ithaca for example was valued at 80p and the belief in mass media filming the Falklands hype did not happen in this campaign unlike 1998 and 2010. As a result the potential gains cannot be made and the market seems to be undervaluing any discoveries.

So if thats the new game of the market Chris Oil now searches for cash flow positive companies which will  force a rerating such as (LSE:IAE) Ithaca Energy or be taken over at a premium.

I still hold (LSE:RKH) Rockhopper Exploration. Only time will tell the geology looks good but so far the results do not. Through my choices i have made money so far out of the Falklands unlike 99% of investors  by revaluation.

If your interested in advfn they have excellent data and level 2 on the Falklands and North Sea companies like Ithaca Energy well worth registering below.

Until the next time more ramblings from the castle can be seen @chrisoil

http://www.chrisoil.blogspot.co.uk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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