Event Risks Ahead but in the Meantime Option Expiries may Play a Role

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With the Federal Reserve not making its policy announcement until late into the New York session on Wednesday and polling in the Dutch elections not closing until 2000GMT, traders might wonder if the defining features of trading ahead of those two major events may be partly shaped by the existence of any major option expiries that will roll off at 1500GMT.

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ThomsonReuters IFR (TRIFR) have identified a number of levels and amounts that could exercise an influence in both euro/dollar (EURUSD) and dollar/yen (USDJPY).In euro/dollar, TRIFR have noted more than 500 million euros of expiries on Wednesday at 1.0600 with more than 900 million in the 1.0650-55 range. Above that TRIFR see another 1 billion euros rolling off in the 1.0680-1.0700 area.

Below 1.0600, there are also large interests rolling off today. TRIFR have identified 1.3 billion euros of expiries at 1.0575-80 with another 2 billion stretched over the 1.0520-70 level. In dollar/yen TRIFR write of almost 1.9 billion dollars of expiries at 114.50 alone with another 1.6 billion in total between 114.00 and 114.45. Additionally, TRIFR see 800 million dollars of expiries rolling off in the 114.60-75 range, while 115.00 itself sees a cluster of 1.2 billion.

Written by Neal Kimberley, External Currency Analyst.
All financial products traded on margin carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Any forecasts given are not a reliable indicator of future performance and the decision to act on any ideas and suggestions presented is at the sole discretion of the reader.

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