While expected to be below the March
2024 volume total, new light vehicle sales volume in April
should sustain some of the spring selling momentum
SOUTHFIELD, Mich., April 29,
2024 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Global Mobility projects
new light vehicle sales volume in April
2024 to reach 1.34 million units. While this unadjusted
volume total would be a drop from both the month prior (down 7%)
and year-ago (down 2%) levels, two fewer selling days than
March 2024 and one less than
April 2023 more than account for any
potential declines. This volume would translate to an estimated
sales pace of 16.0 million units (seasonally adjusted annual
rate: SAAR), just the third time in the past twenty-four
months the metric has reached this level.
Advancing production levels set the stage
for continued incentives and inventory, potentially enticing new
buyers
"With an auto sales environment currently defined by the mixed
signals of advancing inventory and incentives, together with
affordability concerns from high interest rates and still high
vehicle prices, the anticipated April result reflects that
consumers are still in the market for a new vehicle," said
Chris Hopson, principal analyst at
S&P Global Mobility.
Retail advertised inventory continues its steady rise, and
stands now at 2.97 million units, an increase of 65% vs. last year.
While most dealer inventory comprises 2024 and some 2025 model year
vehicles, pockets of older inventory remain.
"Consumers in the market for a new vehicle are increasingly able
to find opportunities for discounts coming from the availability of
more vehicles in dealer inventory," said Matt Trommer, associate director at S&P
Global Mobility.
The supply side of the auto equation is continuing to show signs
of advancement, hinting at sustained growth for inventories and
incentives moving through 2024. According to Joe Langley,
associate director at S&P Global Mobility, "The outlook for
North American light vehicle production for 2024 was revised higher
by 1.5% to 16.0 million units on demand resilience and more
importantly on stronger production results, indicating minimized
impact of supply chain issues."
"Advancing production levels set the stage for incentives and
inventory to continue to develop, potentially enticing new vehicle
buyers who remain on the sidelines due to higher interest rates,"
said Hopson. "It will be a bumpy ride and month-to-month sales
volatility is likely. S&P Global Mobility projects
calendar-year 2024 light vehicle sales volume of 16.0 million
units, a 3% increase from 2023."
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Light Vehicle
Sales
|
|
|
Apr 24
(Est)
|
Mar
24
|
Apr
23
|
Total Light
Vehicle
|
Units, NSA
|
1,338,000
|
1,438,012
|
1,357,844
|
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
16.0
|
15.5
|
15.7
|
Light Truck
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
12.9
|
12.5
|
12.5
|
Passenger
Car
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
3.1
|
3.0
|
3.2
|
Source: S&P Global
Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
|
|
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility
light vehicle sales forecast. In the immediate term, some
month-to-month volatility is anticipated. April BEV share is
expected to reach 7%, similar to March, as Telsa volumes are likely
to be reflective the first quarter levels. BEV share is expected to
advance over the next several periods though, supported by the
pending the launches of vehicles such as the Chevrolet
Equinox EV, Honda Prologue and Fiat 500e, all scheduled for
market introductions over the first half of 2024, as well as
advancing Tesla Model 3 and Cybertruck sales.
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights
derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to
anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise
helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers,
and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive
innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping
customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE:
SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit
ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global
capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our
offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations
navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow,
today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility